A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

Alessandrini, Stefano; Kim, Ju-Hye; Jimenez, Pedro A.; Dudhia, Jimy; Yang, Jaemo; Sengupta, Manajit

doi:10.3390/atmos14030567

Title: A Gridded Solar Irradiance Ensemble Prediction System Based on WRF-Solar EPS and the Analog Ensemble

Journal Article · 16 March 2023 · Atmosphere (Basel)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030567 · OSTI ID:1967953

^[1];

^[1]; Jimenez, Pedro A. ^[1];

^[1]; Yang, Jaemo ^[2];

^[2]

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS) and a calibration method, the analog ensemble (AnEn), are used to generate calibrated gridded ensemble forecasts of solar irradiance over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) retrievals, based on geostationary satellites from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) are used for both calibrating and verifying the day-ahead GHI and DNI predictions (GDIP). A 10-member ensemble of WRF-Solar EPS is run in a re-forecast mode to generate day-ahead GDIP for three years. The AnEn is used to calibrate GDIP at each grid point independently using the NSRDB as the “ground truth”. Performance evaluations of deterministic and probabilistic attributes are carried out over the whole CONUS. The results demonstrate that using the AnEn calibrated ensemble forecast from WRF-Solar EPS contributes to improving the overall quality of the GHI predictions with respect to an AnEn calibrated system based only on the deterministic run of WRF-Solar. In fact, the calibrated WRF-Solar EPS’s mean exhibits a lower bias and RMSE than the calibrated deterministic WRF-Solar. Moreover, using the ensemble mean and spread as predictors for the AnEn allows a more effective calibration than using variables only from the deterministic runs. Finally, it has been shown that the recently introduced algorithm of correction for rare events is of paramount importance to obtain the lowest values of GHI from the calibrated ensemble (WRF-Solar EPS AnEn), qualitatively consistent with those observed from the NSRDB.

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Research Organization:: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Solar Energy Technologies Office; National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC36-08GO28308; 1852977

OSTI ID:: 1967953

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5D00-85808; MainId:86581; UUID:93e7c317-fa44-43e7-bdd0-9c07e0215891; MainAdminID:69157

Journal Information:: Atmosphere (Basel), Vol. 14, Issue 3; ISSN 2073-4433

Publisher:: MDPICopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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