Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Colelli, Francesco Pietro; Wing, Ian Sue; Cian, Enrica De

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-31469-z

Title: Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Journal Article · 16 March 2023 · Scientific Reports

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31469-z · OSTI ID:1962184

Colelli, Francesco Pietro; Wing, Ian Sue; Cian, Enrica De

Abstract We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO $$$$_2$$$$ $_{2}$ vs 0.09 kgCO $$$$_2$$$$ $_{2}$ ), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Boston Univ., MA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: European Research Council (ERC); H2020-MSCA-RISE project; USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0016162

OSTI ID:: 1962184

Journal Information:: Scientific Reports, Journal Name: Scientific Reports Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2045-2322

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (35)

The ERA5 global reanalysis Hersbach, Hans; Bell, Bill; Berrisford, Paul Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 730 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803	journal	June 2020
Seasonal effects of climate change on intra-day electricity demand patterns Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario Climatic Change, Vol. 154, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-019-02413-w	journal	March 2019
Global scenarios of residential heating and cooling energy demand and CO2 emissions Mastrucci, Alessio; van Ruijven, Bas; Byers, Edward Climatic Change, Vol. 168, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03229-3	journal	October 2021
Global Energy Consumption in a Warming Climate De Cian, Enrica; Sue Wing, Ian Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 72, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-017-0198-4	journal	December 2017
Bias Correcting Climate Change Simulations - a Critical Review Maraun, Douglas Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x	journal	October 2016
The potential for indoor fans to change air conditioning use while maintaining human thermal comfort during hot weather: an analysis of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions Malik, Arunima; Bongers, Coen; McBain, Bonnie The Lancet Planetary Health, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00042-0	journal	April 2022
High-resolution global population projections dataset developed with CMIP6 RCP and SSP scenarios for year 2010–2100 Olén, Niklas Boke; Lehsten, Veiko Data in Brief, Vol. 40 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dib.2022.107804	journal	February 2022
Air conditioning and electricity expenditure: The role of climate in temperate countries Randazzo, Teresa; De Cian, Enrica; Mistry, Malcolm N. Economic Modelling, Vol. 90 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.05.001	journal	August 2020
Explaining the spread of residential air conditioning, 1955–1980 Biddle, Jeff Explorations in Economic History, Vol. 45, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2008.02.004	journal	September 2008
Income-dependent expansion of electricity demand for climate change adaptation in Brazil Colelli, Francesco Pietro; Mistry, Malcolm N. Energy and Climate Change, Vol. 3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2022.100071	journal	December 2022
Passive cooling techniques for building and their applicability in different climatic zones—The state of art Bhamare, Dnyandip K.; Rathod, Manish K.; Banerjee, Jyotirmay Energy and Buildings, Vol. 198 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.06.023	journal	September 2019
Measuring climatic impacts on energy consumption: A review of the empirical literature Auffhammer, Maximilian; Mansur, Erin T. Energy Economics, Vol. 46 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.017	journal	November 2014
Households’ adaptation in a warming climate. Air conditioning and thermal insulation choices De Cian, Enrica; Pavanello, Filippo; Randazzo, Teresa Environmental Science & Policy, Vol. 100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.06.015	journal	October 2019
Real-time carbon accounting method for the European electricity markets Tranberg, Bo; Corradi, Olivier; Lajoie, Bruno Energy Strategy Reviews, Vol. 26 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100367	journal	November 2019
Air conditioning and global inequality Davis, Lucas; Gertler, Paul; Jarvis, Stephen Global Environmental Change, Vol. 69 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102299	journal	July 2021
Climate Change 2022 - Mitigation of Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157926	book	July 2023
Climate simulations: recognize the ‘hot model’ problem Hausfather, Zeke; Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A. Nature, Vol. 605, Issue 7908 https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-022-01192-2	journal	May 2022
Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change van Ruijven, Bas J.; De Cian, Enrica; Sue Wing, Ian Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10399-3	journal	June 2019
Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies Pavanello, Filippo; De Cian, Enrica; Davide, Marinella Nature Communications, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26592-2	journal	November 2021
Increased energy use for adaptation significantly impacts mitigation pathways Colelli, Francesco Pietro; Emmerling, Johannes; Marangoni, Giacomo Nature Communications, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32471-1	journal	August 2022
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6	journal	June 2018
Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios Yalew, Seleshi G.; van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Nature Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z	journal	August 2020
Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption Rode, Ashwin; Carleton, Tamma; Delgado, Michael Nature, Vol. 598, Issue 7880 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8	journal	October 2021
Management of validation of HPLC method for determination of acetylsalicylic acid impurities in a new pharmaceutical product Kowalska, Małgorzata; Woźniak, Magdalena; Kijek, Michał Scientific Reports, Vol. 12, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99269-x	journal	January 2022
Contribution of air conditioning adoption to future energy use under global warming Davis, Lucas W.; Gertler, Paul J. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1423558112	journal	April 2015
Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1613193114	journal	February 2017
North–south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming Wenz, Leonie; Levermann, Anders; Auffhammer, Maximilian Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 38 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704339114	journal	August 2017
Beta Regression for Modelling Rates and Proportions Ferrari, Silvia; Cribari-Neto, Francisco Journal of Applied Statistics, Vol. 31, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1080/0266476042000214501	journal	August 2004
Temperature and the Allocation of Time: Implications for Climate Change Graff Zivin, Joshua; Neidell, Matthew Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 32, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1086/671766	journal	January 2014
Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US Deschênes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, Vol. 3, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1257/app.3.4.152	journal	October 2011
Gridded GDP Projections Compatible With the Five SSPs (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) Murakami, Daisuke; Yoshida, Takahiro; Yamagata, Yoshiki Frontiers in Built Environment, Vol. 7 https://doi.org/10.3389/fbuil.2021.760306	journal	October 2021
Assessing the Demand Side Management Potential and the Energy Flexibility of Heat Pumps in Buildings Arteconi, Alessia; Polonara, Fabio Energies, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/en11071846	journal	July 2018
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization Eyring, Veronika; Bony, Sandrine; Meehl, Gerald A. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016	journal	January 2016
Technical Note: Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile mapping Thrasher, B.; Maurer, E. P.; McKellar, C. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012	journal	January 2012
NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections - CMIP6 Nasa, Rama Nemani / NASA Center for Climate Simulation https://doi.org/10.7917/OFSG3345	dataset	January 2021

Similar Records

Correlation versus hybridization gap in CaMn$$_{2}$$Bi$$_{2}$$

Journal Article · 2023 · Scientific Reports · OSTI ID:1984157

Lane, Christopher; Piva, M. M.; Rosa, P. F. S.; +1 more

Probe nuclear structure using the anisotropic flow at the Large Hadron Collider

Journal Article · 2023 · European Physical Journal. A, Hadrons and Nuclei (Online) · OSTI ID:2217575

Lu, Zhiyong; Zhao, Mingrui; Li, Xiaomei; +2 more

Local structure elucidation of tungsten-substituted vanadium dioxide (V$$_{1-x}$$W$$_x$$O$$_2$$)

Journal Article · 2022 · Scientific Reports · OSTI ID:1884867

Wilson, Catrina E.; Gibson, Amanda E.; Cuillier, Paul M.; +7 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Climate-change adaptation
Climate-change impacts

Title: Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Citation Formats

References (35)

Similar Records

Related Subjects