Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Journal Article · 15 March 2023 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037062 · OSTI ID:1961879

Lassman, W.  ^[1]; Mirocha, J. D. ^[1]; Arthur, R. S.  ^[1]; Kochanski, A. K. ^[2]; Farguell Caus, A. ^[2]; Bagley, A. M. ^[1]; Carreras Sospedra, M. ^[3]; Dabdub, D.  ^[3]; Barbato, M.  ^[4]

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1. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
2. San Jose State University San Jose CA USA
3. University of California Irvine CA USA
4. University of California Davis CA USA

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: Electrical Power Research Institute; NASA; NSF; USDOE; USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC52-07NA27344
• OSTI ID: 1961879
• Report Number(s): LLNL-JRNL-845142; e2022JD037062
• Journal Information: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 128; ISSN 2169-897X
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English