Constraining the Varied Response of Northern Hemisphere Winter Circulation Waviness to Climate Change
[1];
[2];
[3];
- China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate Center Beijing China
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
- Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA
- China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies School of Atmospheric Sciences Institute for Climate and Global Change Research Nanjing University Nanjing China
Abstract While a large latitudinal displacement of the westerly jet brings about disproportionate socioeconomic impacts over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude continents, it is not well understood as to whether the winter circulation will become wavier or less in response to climate change. Here, using observations and large ensembles of climate models, we show that changes in atmospheric waviness can be estimated from the optimal structures of the westerly jet for wavier circulation, which are obtained from an advection‐diffusion model. Thus, the changes in westerly jet structure in climate models under climate change provide a physical constraint on changes in atmospheric waviness, indicating that the North Atlantic wave activity will experience a robust decline in a warmer climate, while future North Pacific wave activity is obscured by model uncertainty rather than internal variability. These findings highlight the changes to jet stream structure as a constraint for regional circulation waviness in a changing climate.
- Research Organization:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- OSTI ID:
- 1961748
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-175652; e2022GL102150
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 6 Vol. 50; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Arctic-associated increased fluctuations of midlatitude winter temperature in the 1.5° and 2.0° warmer world
On the roles of tropical and midlatitude SSTs in forcing interannual to interdecadal variability in the winter northern hemisphere circulation