Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States

Juang, C. S.; Williams, A. P.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Balch, J. K.; Hurteau, M. D.; Moritz, M. A.

doi:10.1029/2021gl097131

Title: Rapid Growth of Large Forest Fires Drives the Exponential Response of Annual Forest-Fire Area to Aridity in the Western United States

Journal Article · 27 February 2022 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl097131 · OSTI ID:1904243

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Columbia University, New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
Columbia University, New York, NY (United States); University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
University of California, Merced, CA (United States)
University of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)
University of California, Santa Barbara, CA (United States)

Annual forest area burned (AFAB) in the western United States (US) has increased as a positive exponential function of rising aridity in recent decades. This non-linear response has important implications for AFAB in a changing climate, yet the cause of the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship has not been given rigorous attention. We investigated the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship in western US forests using a new 1984–2019 database of fire events and 2001–2020 satellite-based records of daily fire growth. While forest-fire frequency and duration grow linearly with aridity, the exponential AFAB-aridity relationship results from the exponential growth rates of individual fires. Larger fires generally have more potential for growth due to more extensive firelines. Thus, forces that promote fire growth, such as aridification, have more potent effects on larger fires. As aridity increases linearly, the potential for growth of large fires accelerates, leading to exponential increases in AFAB.

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Research Organization:: Columbia University, New York, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0022302

OSTI ID:: 1904243

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 49; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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