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Title: Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases

Abstract

Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office; USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1902238
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1909273
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-06CH11357
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 114; Journal ID: ISSN 1361-9209
Publisher:
Elsevier
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Fuel efficiency; Electrification; Greenhouse gas emissions; Vehicle size

Citation Formats

Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, and Zhou, Yan. Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases. United States: N. p., 2022. Web. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543.
Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, & Zhou, Yan. Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543
Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, and Zhou, Yan. Thu . "Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1902238.
@article{osti_1902238,
title = {Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases},
author = {Gohlke, David and Kelly, Jarod and Stephens, Thomas and Wu, Xinyi and Zhou, Yan},
abstractNote = {Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.},
doi = {10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543},
journal = {Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment},
number = ,
volume = 114,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 EST 2022},
month = {Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 EST 2022}
}

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