Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases
Abstract
Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.
- Authors:
-
- Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Lemont, IL (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Transportation Office. Vehicle Technologies Office; USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1902238
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1909273
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC02-06CH11357
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 114; Journal ID: ISSN 1361-9209
- Publisher:
- Elsevier
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS; Fuel efficiency; Electrification; Greenhouse gas emissions; Vehicle size
Citation Formats
Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, and Zhou, Yan. Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases. United States: N. p., 2022.
Web. doi:10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543.
Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, & Zhou, Yan. Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases. United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543
Gohlke, David, Kelly, Jarod, Stephens, Thomas, Wu, Xinyi, and Zhou, Yan. Thu .
"Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases". United States. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1902238.
@article{osti_1902238,
title = {Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases},
author = {Gohlke, David and Kelly, Jarod and Stephens, Thomas and Wu, Xinyi and Zhou, Yan},
abstractNote = {Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.},
doi = {10.1016/j.trd.2022.103543},
journal = {Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment},
number = ,
volume = 114,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 EST 2022},
month = {Thu Dec 08 00:00:00 EST 2022}
}
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