Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?
Abstract
Land use change (LUC) CO2 emissions associated with bioenergy production depend on the amount of land required to produce bioenergy crops, the carbon stored in such crops (including in the leaves, stalk, roots and soil), and the carbon emitted when another land cover is directly or indirectly displaced as a result. In this study, we use a global integrated assessment model [the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)] to explore the differences in estimates of LUC CO2 emissions for two crops (corn and switchgrass) used to produce ethanol in the United States under alternative assumptions about natural lands protection. Varying the latter assumptions for corn ethanol results in net LUC CO2 emissions between 7 and 41 gCO2 per MJ of ethanol, whereas varying the same assumptions for switchgrass ethanol results in net emissions between -26 and 14 gCO2 per MJ of ethanol. The low-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be fully protected everywhere, which leads to significant cropland intensification. The high-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be unprotected everywhere, leading to greater cropland expansion and associated conversion of unmanaged forest and pasture. Results from this study could be used to informmore »
- Authors:
-
- ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1891858
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-ACT-SA-10508
Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climate Change Economics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 04; Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
- Publisher:
- World Scientific
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; bioenergy; ethanol; land use change emissions; integrated assessment
Citation Formats
Mignone, Bryan K., Huster, Jonathan E., Torkamani, Sarah, O'Rourke, Patrick, and Wise, Marshall A. Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?. United States: N. p., 2022.
Web. doi:10.1142/s2010007822500087.
Mignone, Bryan K., Huster, Jonathan E., Torkamani, Sarah, O'Rourke, Patrick, & Wise, Marshall A. Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007822500087
Mignone, Bryan K., Huster, Jonathan E., Torkamani, Sarah, O'Rourke, Patrick, and Wise, Marshall A. Thu .
"Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2010007822500087. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1891858.
@article{osti_1891858,
title = {Changes in global land use and CO2 emissions from us bioethanol production: what drives differences in estimates between corn and cellulosic ethanol?},
author = {Mignone, Bryan K. and Huster, Jonathan E. and Torkamani, Sarah and O'Rourke, Patrick and Wise, Marshall A.},
abstractNote = {Land use change (LUC) CO2 emissions associated with bioenergy production depend on the amount of land required to produce bioenergy crops, the carbon stored in such crops (including in the leaves, stalk, roots and soil), and the carbon emitted when another land cover is directly or indirectly displaced as a result. In this study, we use a global integrated assessment model [the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)] to explore the differences in estimates of LUC CO2 emissions for two crops (corn and switchgrass) used to produce ethanol in the United States under alternative assumptions about natural lands protection. Varying the latter assumptions for corn ethanol results in net LUC CO2 emissions between 7 and 41 gCO2 per MJ of ethanol, whereas varying the same assumptions for switchgrass ethanol results in net emissions between -26 and 14 gCO2 per MJ of ethanol. The low-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be fully protected everywhere, which leads to significant cropland intensification. The high-end estimate for each occurs when natural lands are assumed to be unprotected everywhere, leading to greater cropland expansion and associated conversion of unmanaged forest and pasture. Results from this study could be used to inform scenarios of future energy system change or life cycle assessment of biofuels for which LUC emissions would be an input.},
doi = {10.1142/s2010007822500087},
journal = {Climate Change Economics},
number = 04,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu May 05 00:00:00 EDT 2022},
month = {Thu May 05 00:00:00 EDT 2022}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
What Drives Deforestation and What Stops It? A Meta-Analysis
journal, January 2017
- Busch, Jonah; Ferretti-Gallon, Kalifi
- Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 11, Issue 1
Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important?
journal, October 2009
- Melillo, J. M.; Reilly, J. M.; Kicklighter, D. W.
- Science, Vol. 326, Issue 5958
Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change
journal, July 2011
- Dumortier, J.; Hayes, D. J.; Carriquiry, M.
- Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 3
Slowing Amazon deforestation through public policy and interventions in beef and soy supply chains
journal, June 2014
- Nepstad, D.; McGrath, D.; Stickler, C.
- Science, Vol. 344, Issue 6188
Moirai Version 3: A Data Processing System to Generate Recent Historical Land Inputs for Global Modeling Applications at Various Scales
journal, January 2020
- Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Vernon, Chris R.; Shu, Shijie
- Journal of Open Research Software, Vol. 8
Evaluating the Potential of Marginal Land for Cellulosic Feedstock Production and Carbon Sequestration in the United States
journal, December 2016
- Emery, Isaac; Mueller, Steffen; Qin, Zhangcai
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 51, Issue 1
Deforestation driven by urban population growth and agricultural trade in the twenty-first century
journal, February 2010
- DeFries, Ruth S.; Rudel, Thomas; Uriarte, Maria
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3
Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s
journal, January 2012
- Macedo, M. N.; DeFries, R. S.; Morton, D. C.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 4
The impact of agricultural trade approaches on global economic modeling
journal, March 2022
- Zhao, Xin; Wise, Marshall A.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 73
The potential of Miscanthus to sequester carbon in soils: comparing field measurements in Carlow, Ireland to model predictions
journal, December 2009
- Dondini, Marta; Hastings, Astley; Saiz, Gustavo
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 1, Issue 6
Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels
journal, August 2020
- Field, John L.; Richard, Tom L.; Smithwick, Erica A. H.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 117, Issue 36
Changes in soil carbon stocks under perennial and annual bioenergy crops
journal, March 2015
- Ferchaud, Fabien; Vitte, Guillaume; Mary, Bruno
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 8, Issue 2
One-third of global protected land is under intense human pressure
journal, May 2018
- Jones, Kendall R.; Venter, Oscar; Fuller, Richard A.
- Science, Vol. 360, Issue 6390
An approach to computing marginal land use change carbon intensities for bioenergy in policy applications
journal, July 2015
- Wise, Marshall; Hodson, Elke L.; Mignone, Bryan K.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 50
Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land-Use Change
journal, February 2008
- Searchinger, T.; Heimlich, R.; Houghton, R. A.
- Science, Vol. 319, Issue 5867
Biomass Production in Switchgrass across the United States: Database Description and Determinants of Yield
journal, January 2010
- Wullschleger, S. D.; Davis, E. B.; Borsuk, M. E.
- Agronomy Journal, Vol. 102, Issue 4
Land-use change and greenhouse gas emissions from corn and cellulosic ethanol
journal, January 2013
- Dunn, Jennifer B.; Mueller, Steffen; Kwon, Ho-young
- Biotechnology for Biofuels, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Effects of US Maize Ethanol on Global Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Estimating Market-mediated Responses
journal, March 2010
- Hertel, Thomas W.; Golub, Alla A.; Jones, Andrew D.
- BioScience, Vol. 60, Issue 3
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Biofuels’ Indirect Land Use Change Are Uncertain but May Be Much Greater than Previously Estimated
journal, November 2010
- Plevin, Richard J.; Jones, Andrew D.; Torn, Margaret S.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 44, Issue 21
A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une theorie de la demande de produits differencies d'apres leur origine) (Una teoria de la demanda de productos distinguiendolos segun el lugar de produccion)
journal, March 1969
- Armington, Paul S.
- Staff Papers - International Monetary Fund, Vol. 16, Issue 1
A simple object-oriented and open-source model for scientific and policy analyses of the global climate system – Hector v1.0
journal, January 2015
- Hartin, C. A.; Patel, P.; Schwarber, A.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 8, Issue 4
Microbial Engineering of Floc Fe and Trace Element Geochemistry in a Circumneutral, Remote Lake
journal, May 2014
- Elliott, Amy V. C.; Warren, Lesley A.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 48, Issue 12
Carbon Accounting and Economic Model Uncertainty of Emissions from Biofuels-Induced Land Use Change
journal, February 2015
- Plevin, Richard J.; Beckman, Jayson; Golub, Alla A.
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 49, Issue 5
Economic and Physical Modeling of land use in gcam 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon
journal, May 2014
- Wise, Marshall; Calvin, Kate; Kyle, Page
- Climate Change Economics, Vol. 05, Issue 02
Forest Loss in Protected Areas and Intact Forest Landscapes: A Global Analysis
journal, October 2015
- Heino, Matias; Kummu, Matti; Makkonen, Marika
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 10, Issue 10
The End of Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon
journal, December 2009
- Nepstad, Daniel; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Merry, Frank
- Science, Vol. 326, Issue 5958
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
journal, January 2019
- Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2
Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt
journal, February 2008
- Fargione, J.; Hill, J.; Tilman, D.
- Science, Vol. 319, Issue 5867
Biofuels and their by-products: Global economic and environmental implications
journal, March 2010
- Taheripour, Farzad; Hertel, Thomas W.; Tyner, Wallace E.
- Biomass and Bioenergy, Vol. 34, Issue 3
Alternative U.S. biofuel mandates and global GHG emissions: The role of land use change, crop management and yield growth
journal, June 2013
- Mosnier, A.; Havlík, P.; Valin, H.
- Energy Policy, Vol. 57
Influence of spatially dependent, modeled soil carbon emission factors on life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of corn and cellulosic ethanol
journal, March 2016
- Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Kwon, Hoyoung
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Classifying drivers of global forest loss
journal, September 2018
- Curtis, Philip G.; Slay, Christy M.; Harris, Nancy L.
- Science, Vol. 361, Issue 6407
Soil carbon sequestration and land use change associated with biofuel production: empirical evidence
journal, March 2015
- Qin, Zhangcai; Dunn, Jennifer B.; Kwon, Hoyoung
- GCB Bioenergy, Vol. 8, Issue 1
The GTAP Data Base: Version 10
journal, June 2019
- Aguiar, Angel; Chepeliev, Maksym; Corong, Erwin L.
- Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market
journal, April 1993
- Clarke, John F.; Edmonds, J. A.
- Energy Economics, Vol. 15, Issue 2
RED versus REDD: Biofuel policy versus forest conservation
journal, January 2016
- Dixon, Peter; van Meijl, Hans; Rimmer, Maureen
- Economic Modelling, Vol. 52
The Factor Proportions Theory: the N?Factor case
journal, November 1968
- Vanek, Jaroslav
- Kyklos, Vol. 21, Issue 4
What are the effects of Agro-Ecological Zones and land use region boundaries on land resource projection using the Global Change Assessment Model?
journal, November 2016
- Di Vittorio, Alan V.; Kyle, Page; Collins, William D.
- Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol. 85
Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates
journal, January 2013
- Taheripour, Farzad; Tyner, Wallace
- Applied Sciences, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Cost of Abating Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Cellulosic Ethanol
journal, February 2015
- Dwivedi, Puneet; Wang, Weiwei; Hudiburg, Tara
- Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 49, Issue 4