Dynamic risk assessment for geologic CO2 sequestration

Chen, Bailian; Harp, Dylan R.; Zhang, Yingqi; Oldenburg, Curtis M.; Pawar, Rajesh J.

doi:10.1016/j.gr.2022.08.002

Title: Dynamic risk assessment for geologic CO₂ sequestration

Journal Article · 17 August 2022 · Gondwana Research

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gr.2022.08.002 · OSTI ID:1884758

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^[1]; Zhang, Yingqi ^[2]; Oldenburg, Curtis M. ^[2];

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Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

At a geologic CO₂ sequestration (GCS) site, geologic uncertainty usually leads to large uncertainty in the predictions of properties that influence metrics for leakage risk assessment, such as CO₂ saturations and pressures in potentially leaky wellbores, CO₂/brine leakage rates, and leakage consequences such as changes in drinking water quality in groundwater aquifers. The large uncertainty in these risk-related system properties and risk metrics can lead to over-conservative risk management decisions to ensure safe operations of GCS sites. The objective of this work is to develop a novel approach based on dynamic risk assessment to effectively reduce the uncertainty in the predicted risk-related system properties and risk metrics. We demonstrate our framework for dynamic risk assessment on two case studies: a 3D synthetic example and a synthetic field example based on the Rock Springs Uplift (RSU) storage site in Wyoming, USA. Results show that the U.S. National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) coupled with a conformance evaluation can be used to effectively quantify and reduce the uncertainty in the predictions of risk-related system properties and risk metrics in GCS.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE); USDOE Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1884758

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-21-25249

Journal Information:: Gondwana Research, Journal Name: Gondwana Research Vol. 122; ISSN 1342-937X

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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