Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Singh, Jitendra; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Skinner, Christopher B.; Anderson, Weston B.; Mishra, Vimal; Singh, Deepti

doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01276-3

Title: Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

Journal Article · 03 February 2022 · Nature Climate Change

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01276-3 · OSTI ID:1881165

^[1];

^[2]; Skinner, Christopher B. ^[3];

^[4];

^[5]; Singh, Deepti ^[1]

Washington State Univ., Vancouver, WA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Univ. of Massachusetts, Lowell, MA (United States)
Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
Indian Inst. of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar (India)

Spatially compounding extremes pose substantial threats to globally interconnected socio-economic systems. In this study we use multiple large ensemble simulations of the high-emissions scenario to show increased risk of compound droughts during the boreal summer over ten global regions. Relative to the late twentieth century, the probability of compound droughts increases by ~40% and ~60% by the middle and late twenty-first century, respectively, with a disproportionate increase in risk across North America and the Amazon. These changes contribute to an approximately ninefold increase in agricultural area and population exposure to severe compound droughts with continued fossil-fuel dependence. ENSO is the predominant large-scale driver of compound droughts with 68% of historical events occurring during El Niño or La Niña conditions. With ENSO teleconnections remaining largely stationary in the future, a ~22% increase in frequency of ENSO events combined with projected warming drives the elevated risk of compound droughts.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1881165

Journal Information:: Nature Climate Change, Journal Name: Nature Climate Change Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 12; ISSN 1758-678X

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Enhanced risk of concurrent regional droughts with increased ENSO variability and warming

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