Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Patricola, Christina M.; Cassidy, Daniel J.; Klotzbach, Philip J.

doi:10.1029/2022GL099354

Title: Tropical Oceanic Influences on Observed Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Journal Article · 01 July 2022 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099354 · OSTI ID:1874726

^[1]; Cassidy, Daniel J. ^[1];

^[2]

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University Ames IA USA
Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Fort Collins CO USA

Abstract The global tropical cyclone (TC) number has historically been relatively constant from year‐to‐year, however, the reason remains unknown. Furthermore, climate projections are inconclusive regarding future global TC frequency changes. Here, we investigated years in which observed global TC activity deviated from the mean and potential links to ocean drivers from 1980 to 2021. We found that the annual global number of named storm days and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) were significantly linked with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM). La Niña and positive AMM are associated with the bottom percentiles of both TC metrics, and vice versa for El Niño and negative AMM. The ENSO Longitude Index explains variability in annual global named storm days and ACE as well as the Niño 3.4 index. This research reveals that reliable future projections of ENSO are necessary, but not sufficient, to understand future changes in global TC frequency.

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Research Organization:: Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States); Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0021109

OSTI ID:: 1874726

Report Number(s):: DOE-IowaState-DE-SC0021109; e2022GL099354

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 49; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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