A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Camarasa, Clara; Mata, Érika; Navarro, Juan Pablo Jiménez; Reyna, Janet; Bezerra, Paula; Angelkorte, Gerd Brantes; Feng, Wei; Filippidou, Faidra; Forthuber, Sebastian; Harris, Chioke; Sandberg, Nina Holck; Ignatiadou, Sotiria; Kranzl, Lukas; Langevin, Jared; Liu, Xu; Müller, Andreas; Soria, Rafael; Villamar, Daniel; Dias, Gabriela Prata; Wanemark, Joel; Yaramenka, Katarina

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-29890-5

Title: A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Journal Article · 01 June 2022 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29890-5 · OSTI ID:1872404

Camarasa, Clara ^[1]; Mata, Érika ^[2];

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^[6]; Filippidou, Faidra ^[3]; Forthuber, Sebastian ^[7]; Harris, Chioke ^[4];

^[8]; Ignatiadou, Sotiria ^[2];

^[7];

^[6];

^[9];

^[7];

^[10]; Villamar, Daniel ^[11]; Dias, Gabriela Prata ^[1]; Wanemark, Joel ^[2] more »

UNEP-DTU Partnership, MCopenhagen (Denmark)
IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute, Gothenburg (Sweden)
European Commission, Petten (Netherlands). Joint Research Centre (JRC)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Federal Univ. of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Technische Univ. Wien (Austria)
SINTEF Community, Trondheim (Norway)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
Universidad San Francisco de Quito (Ecuador)
Escuela Politécnica Nacional (EPN), Quito (Eduador)

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: Copenhagen Center on Energy Efficiency (C2E2); European Union’s Horizon 2020; Inter-American Development Bank (IADB); Ministry of Climate and Environment (Enova SF); Research Council of Norway; Swedish Research Council (FORMAS); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1872404

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5500-76936; MainId:24899; UUID:e74ece1c-f67d-47af-86ab-656bffa60d38; MainAdminID:64667

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 13; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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