Title: Seasonal Seismicity in the Lake Biwa Region of Central Japan Moderately Modulated by Lake Water Storage Changes

Abstract

Seasonal seismicity in Japan has been observed and attributed to variations induced by hydrological loading, as well as atmospheric and pore-fluid pressure. We examine the seasonal variations of crustal (<15 km depth) and low magnitude (M < 4.5) earthquakes in central Japan near the Biwako-Seigan Fault Zone (BSFZ), and analyze their correlation with the annual hydrological cycle of nearby Lake Biwa, the largest freshwater lake in Japan. The 2002–2018 lake water storage is estimated using water-level gauge and satellite altimetry data. Regional surface mass loading from soil moisture and snow predicted by the Global Land Data Assimilation System is used to augment the lake mass variation. We compute the stress and stressing-rate changes induced by the surface mass loading from lake storage, snow, and soil moisture at seismogenic depth (10 km) along the BSFZ using a finite element model incorporating a 3D Earth structure. The results show that seasonal surface mass loading generates 1–5 kPa peak-to-peak Coulomb stress change and 2.5–15 kPa/year stressing-rate variations on the fault segments along the BSFZ. Two of the four fault segments present significant correlation between local seismicity rate and loading-derived stress and/or stressing rate changes. Among the hydrological load components, lake water, snow, andmore » soil moisture exhibit different annual phases, and the lake water storage dominates the total annual stress changes. Our analysis indicates that seasonal surface hydrological loads, especially lake water variations, modulate the seismicity rate along the BSFZ in central Japan.« less

Authors:

Xue, Liang  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-7071-1057"

Fu, Yuning  ^[2];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-9226-3857"

Johnson, Christopher W.  ^[3];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Johnson, Christopher W."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-2589-7593"

Otero Torres, Jason J. ^[4]; Shum, C. K.  ^[4];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Shum, C. K."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-9378-4067"

Bürgmann, Roland  ^[5]

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-3560-044X"

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Bowling Green State Univ., OH (United States); Syracuse Univ., NY (United States)
2. Bowling Green State Univ., OH (United States)
3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
4. The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)
5. Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

Publication Date:

Sun Dec 12 00:00:00 EST 2021

Research Org.:

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program

OSTI Identifier:

1868224

Report Number(s):

LA-UR-21-20003
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313

Grant/Contract Number:  

89233218CNA000001

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 126; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-9313

Publisher:

American Geophysical Union

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

58 GEOSCIENCES