Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Coffield, Shane R.; Hemes, Kyle S.; Koven, Charles D.; Goulden, Michael L.; Randerson, James T.

doi:10.1029/2021av000384

Title: Climate-Driven Limits to Future Carbon Storage in California's Wildland Ecosystems

Journal Article · 21 July 2021 · AGU Advances

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021av000384 · OSTI ID:1864177

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Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Enhanced ecosystem carbon storage is a key component of many climate mitigation pathways. The State of California has set an ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2045, relying in part on enhanced carbon sequestration in natural and working lands. We used statistical modeling, including random forest and climate analog approaches, to explore the climate-driven challenges and uncertainties associated with the goal of long-term carbon sequestration in forests and shrublands. We found that seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are strong controllers of the spatial distribution of aboveground live carbon. RCP8.5 projections of temperature and precipitation are estimated to drive decreases of 16.1% ± 7.5% in aboveground live carbon by the end of the century, with coastal areas of central and northern California and low/mid-elevation mountain areas being most vulnerable. With RCP4.5 projections, declines are less severe, with 8.8% ± 5.3% carbon loss. In either scenario, increases in temperature systematically cause biomass declines, and the spread of projected precipitation across 32 CMIP5 models contributes to substantial uncertainty in the magnitude of that decline. Projected changes in the environmental niche for the 20 most biomass-dominant tree species revealed widespread replacement of conifers by oak species in low elevation regions of central and northern California, with a corresponding decline in carbon storage depending on expected migration rates. The spatial patterns of vulnerability we identify may allow policymakers to assess where carbon sequestration in aboveground biomass is an appropriate part of a climate mitigation portfolio, and where future climate-driven carbon losses may be a liability.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: California Climate Investments; National Science Foundation (NSF); Regents of the University of California; Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment; UCOP National Laboratory; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231

OSTI ID:: 1864177

Journal Information:: AGU Advances, Journal Name: AGU Advances Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 2; ISSN 2576-604X

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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