Title: Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Abstract

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO₂ (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

Authors:

Edwards, Morgan R.  ^[1];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-9296-7865"

Cui, Ryna  ^[2];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Cui, Ryna"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-1186-8230"

Bindl, Matilyn  ^[3];

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-6118-964X"

Hultman, Nathan ^[2]; Mathur, Krinjal ^[4]; McJeon, Haewon ^[5]; Iyer, Gokul ^[5]; Song, Jiawei ^[2]; Zhao, Alicia ^[2]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Nelson Inst. Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
2. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Center for Global Sustainability
3. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States). Nelson Inst. Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment
4. Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
5. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Center for Global Sustainability; Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Inst.

Publication Date:

Fri Feb 11 00:00:00 EST 2022

Research Org.:

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1861780

Report Number(s):

PNNL-ACT-SA-10559
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 17; Journal Issue: 2; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:

IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; coal phaseout; stranded assets; climate mitigation; global climate goals; integrated assessment modeling; no new coal