Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Christensen, Matthew W.; Gettelman, Andrew; Cermak, Jan; Dagan, Guy; Diamond, Michael; Douglas, Alyson; Feingold, Graham; Glassmeier, Franziska; Goren, Tom; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Gryspeerdt, Edward; Kahn, Ralph; Li, Zhanqing; Ma, Po-Lun; Malavelle, Florent; McCoy, Isabel L.; McCoy, Daniel T.; McFarquhar, Greg; Mülmenstädt, Johannes; Pal, Sandip; Possner, Anna; Povey, Adam; Quaas, Johannes; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Schmidt, Anja; Schrödner, Roland; Sorooshian, Armin; Stier, Philip; Toll, Velle; Watson-Parris, Duncan; Wood, Robert; Yang, Mingxi; Yuan, Tianle

doi:10.5194/acp-22-641-2022

Title: Opportunistic experiments to constrain aerosol effective radiative forcing

Journal Article · 16 January 2022 · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-641-2022 · OSTI ID:1854910

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Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany). Inst. of Meteorology and Climate Research; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Inst. of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing
Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem (Israel). Inst. of Earth Sciences
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (CSL)
Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)
Univ. Leipzig (Germany). Inst. for Meteorology
Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Sciences
Imperial College London (United Kingdom)
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Miami, FL (United States); Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS)
Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Severe and High Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO); Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)
Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States)
Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany). Inst. for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom); Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). National Centre for Earth Observation
Univ. of Cambridge (United Kingdom)
Leibniz Inst. for Tropospheric Research, Leipzig (Germany)
Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)
Univ. of Tartu (Estonia). Inst. of Physics
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Plymouth Marine Lab., Prospect Place (United Kingdom)
Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County (UMBC), Baltimore, MD (United States). Joint Center for Earth Systems Technologies; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States)

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The nonlinearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well-defined sources provide “opportunistic experiments” (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatiotemporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors. We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite datasets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); European Research Council (ERC); Natural Environment Research Council (NERC); Estonian Research Council; National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); Royal Society; German Research Foundation (DFG); Israeli Science Foundation

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1854910

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-163887

Journal Information:: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 22; ISSN 1680-7324

Publisher:: Copernicus Publications, EGUCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Enhanced hydrophobicity and volatility of submicron aerosols under severe emission control conditions in Beijing Wang, Yuying; Zhang, Fang; Li, Zhanqing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-5239-2017	journal	January 2017
Time-dependent, non-monotonic response of warm convective cloud fields to changes in aerosol loading Dagan, Guy; Koren, Ilan; Altaratz, Orit Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7435-2017	journal	January 2017
The climate impact of aerosols on the lightning flash rate: is it detectable from long-term measurements? Wang, Qianqian; Li, Zhanqing; Guo, Jianping Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-12797-2018	journal	January 2018
Time-dependent entrainment of smoke presents an observational challenge for assessing aerosol–cloud interactions over the southeast Atlantic Ocean Diamond, Michael S.; Dobracki, Amie; Freitag, Steffen Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14623-2018	journal	January 2018
Impacts on cloud radiative effects induced by coexisting aerosols converted from international shipping and maritime DMS emissions Jin, Qinjian; Grandey, Benjamin S.; Rothenberg, Daniel Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-16793-2018	journal	January 2018
The efficacy of aerosol–cloud radiative perturbations from near-surface emissions in deep open-cell stratocumuli Possner, Anna; Wang, Hailong; Wood, Robert Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-17475-2018	journal	January 2018
Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A. -M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2035-2018	journal	January 2018
An emulator approach to stratocumulus susceptibility Glassmeier, Franziska; Hoffmann, Fabian; Johnson, Jill S. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-10191-2019	journal	January 2019
Remote biomass burning dominates southern West African air pollution during the monsoon Haslett, Sophie L.; Taylor, Jonathan W.; Evans, Mathew Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15217-2019	journal	January 2019
Constraining the aerosol influence on cloud liquid water path Gryspeerdt, Edward; Goren, Tom; Sourdeval, Odran Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-5331-2019	journal	January 2019
The decomposition of cloud–aerosol forcing in the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Carslaw, Kenneth S. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15681-2020	journal	January 2020
Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening Moseid, Kine Onsum; Schulz, Michael; Storelvmo, Trude Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020	journal	January 2020
Ultra-clean and smoky marine boundary layers frequently occur in the same season over the southeast Atlantic Pennypacker, Sam; Diamond, Michael; Wood, Robert Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2341-2020	journal	January 2020
Biomass burning aerosol as a modulator of the droplet number in the southeast Atlantic region Kacarab, Mary; Thornhill, K. Lee; Dobracki, Amie Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3029-2020	journal	January 2020
Examination of effects of aerosols on a pyroCb and their dependence on fire intensity and aerosol perturbation Lee, Seoung Soo; Kablick III, George; Li, Zhanqing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3357-2020	journal	January 2020
Deconvolution of boundary layer depth and aerosol constraints on cloud water path in subtropical stratocumulus decks Possner, Anna; Eastman, Ryan; Bender, Frida Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-3609-2020	journal	January 2020
Satellite observations of aerosols and clouds over southern China from 2006 to 2015: analysis of changes and possible interaction mechanisms Benas, Nikos; Meirink, Jan Fokke; Karlsson, Karl-Göran Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-457-2020	journal	January 2020
Site representativity of AERONET and GAW remotely sensed aerosol optical thickness and absorbing aerosol optical thickness observations Schutgens, Nick A. J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-7473-2020	journal	January 2020
Observing the timescales of aerosol–cloud interactions in snapshot satellite images Gryspeerdt, Edward; Goren, Tom; Smith, Tristan W. P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6093-2021	journal	January 2021
Enhancement of secondary aerosol formation by reduced anthropogenic emissions during Spring Festival 2019 and enlightenment for regional PM_2.5 control in Beijing Wang, Yuying; Li, Zhanqing; Wang, Qiuyan Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-915-2021	journal	January 2021
The climate impact of COVID-19-induced contrail changes Gettelman, Andrew; Chen, Chieh-Chieh; Bardeen, Charles G. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-9405-2021	journal	January 2021
Weekly cycle of NO₂ by GOME measurements: a signature of anthropogenic sources Beirle, S.; Platt, U.; Wenig, M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 3, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-3-2225-2003	journal	January 2003
Global model simulations of the impact of ocean-going ships on aerosols, clouds, and the radiation budget Lauer, A.; Eyring, V.; Hendricks, J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 7, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5061-2007	journal	January 2007
Automatic detection of ship tracks in ATSR-2 satellite imagery Campmany, E.; Grainger, R. G.; Dean, S. M. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-1899-2009	journal	January 2009
Exploiting the weekly cycle as observed over Europe to analyse aerosol indirect effects in two climate models Quaas, J.; Boucher, O.; Jones, A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8493-2009	journal	January 2009
Effect of biomass burning on marine stratocumulus clouds off the California coast Brioude, J.; Cooper, O. R.; Feingold, G. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-8841-2009	journal	January 2009
The Collection 6 MODIS aerosol products over land and ocean Levy, R. C.; Mattoo, S.; Munchak, L. A. Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-2989-2013	journal	January 2013
A closer looking at dimming and brightening in China during 1961–2005 Xia, X. Annales Geophysicae, Vol. 28, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-28-1121-2010	journal	January 2010
Gridded emissions of air pollutants for the period 1970–2012 within EDGAR v4.3.2 Crippa, Monica; Guizzardi, Diego; Muntean, Marilena Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1987-2018	journal	January 2018
MACv2-SP: a parameterization of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect for use in CMIP6 Stevens, Bjorn; Fiedler, Stephanie; Kinne, Stefan Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017	journal	January 2017
Description and evaluation of aerosol in UKESM1 and HadGEM3-GC3.1 CMIP6 historical simulations Mulcahy, Jane P.; Johnson, Colin; Jones, Colin G. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-6383-2020	journal	January 2020
Natural Laboratories Atmosphere Dataset Christensen, Matthew; Gettelman, Andrew Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5839100	dataset	January 2022
Natural Laboratories Atmosphere Dataset Christensen, Matthew; Gettelman, Andrew Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5839101	dataset	January 2022
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