Title: Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Journal Article · · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ; ORCiD logo; ; ; ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo;

Abstract. Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Research Organization:
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
89243018SSC000007
OSTI ID:
1846464
Journal Information:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 22; ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
Copernicus GmbHCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
Germany
Language:
English

References (297)

Improved seasonal forecast using ozone hole variability?: SEASONAL FORECAST USING OZONE HOLE journal December 2013
Improved forecast skill in the tropics in the new MiKlip decadal climate predictions: IMPROVED FORECAST SKILL IN THE TROPICS journal November 2013
Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales: QBO PREDICTION journal March 2014
A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns: LAGGED 11 YEAR SOLAR CYCLE journal December 2013
A model study of tropospheric impacts of the Arctic ozone depletion 2011: Arctic ozone depletion 2011 and NAM journal July 2014
Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling: STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE CLIMATE CHANGE journal July 2014
Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters: Scaife et al.: Predictability of the NAO journal April 2014
Forecast cooling of the Atlantic subpolar gyre and associated impacts journal July 2014
Do seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions underestimate the predictability of the real world?: Seasonal to decadal predictability journal August 2014
Atmospheric initial conditions and the predictability of the Arctic Oscillation: Predictability of the AO journal February 2015
Northern Hemisphere mid-winter vortex-displacement and vortex-split stratospheric sudden warmings: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation: Influence of MJO and QBO on SSW journal November 2014
Possible impacts of a future grand solar minimum on climate: Stratospheric and global circulation changes journal September 2015
Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex breakdown: An ensemble reforecast experiment for the splitting event in January 2009: Predictability of Vortex Splitting Event journal April 2016
The impact of wave-mean flow interaction on the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex after tropical volcanic eruptions: NH Response to Volcanic Eruptions journal May 2016
Modulation of the boreal wintertime Madden-Julian oscillation by the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation: Modulation of the MJO by the QBO journal February 2016
Classification of stratospheric extreme events according to their downward propagation to the troposphere: CLASSIFICATION OF STRATOSPHERIC EVENTS journal June 2016
Stratospheric control of planetary waves: STRAT CONTROL OF PLANETARY WAVES journal November 2016
Stratospheric variability contributed to and sustained the recent hiatus in Eurasian winter warming: STRATOSPHERE DROVE EURASIAN HIATUS journal January 2017
Relative roles of the MJO and stratospheric variability in North Atlantic and European winter climate: EXTRATROPICAL IMPACT OF MJO VERSUS SSW journal April 2017
MJO‐Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models journal October 2017
Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections journal January 2018
Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts journal January 2018
The Influence of Eurasian Snow Extent on the Northern Extratropical Stratosphere in a QBO Resolving Model journal January 2018
Predictability of European winter 2019/20: Indian Ocean dipole impacts on the NAO journal July 2020
Predictability of European Winters 2017/2018 and 2018/2019: Contrasting influences from the Tropics and stratosphere journal September 2020
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere journal October 2015
A mechanism for lagged North Atlantic climate response to solar variability: LAGGED SOLAR-ATLANTIC CLIMATE MECHANISM journal January 2013
Impact of a potential 21st century “grand solar minimum” on surface temperatures and stratospheric ozone: 21ST CENTURY SOLAR MINIMUM: TEMPERATURE AND O 3 journal August 2013
The role of synoptic eddies in the tropospheric response to stratospheric variability journal September 2013
On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models: STRATOSPHERE IN CMIP5 MODELS journal March 2013
How potentially predictable is northern European winter climate a season ahead? journal April 2011
High-latitude influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation: High-Latitude Influence of the QBO journal March 2013
Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery: Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery journal March 2014
Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5): a high-resolution seasonal forecast system: GloSea5: A High-Resolution Seasonal Forecast System journal June 2014
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts: Stratospheric Predictability and Tropospheric Forecasts
  • Tripathi, Om P.; Baldwin, Mark; Charlton-Perez, Andrew
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 689 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2432
journal October 2014
The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?: Seasonal Climate Prediction in High-Top vs. Low-Top Models
  • Butler, Amy H.; Arribas, Alberto; Athanassiadou, Maria
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 142, Issue 696 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2743
journal March 2016
Tropical rainfall, Rossby waves and regional winter climate predictions: Winter Teleconnections
  • Scaife, Adam A.; Comer, Ruth E.; Dunstone, Nick J.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 702 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2910
journal October 2016
Predictability of downward propagation of major sudden stratospheric warmings: Downward Propagation of SSWs
  • Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Hitchcock, Peter; Peters, Dieter H. W.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 704 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3017
journal April 2017
Madden-Julian Oscillation prediction and teleconnections in the S2S database: MJO Prediction and Teleconnections in the S2S Database journal July 2017
Ensemble simulations of the cold European winter of 2005-2006 journal October 2008
The influence of the stratospheric state on North Atlantic weather regimes
  • Charlton‐Perez, Andrew J.; Ferranti, Laura; Lee, Robert W.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 144, Issue 713 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3280
journal April 2018
The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox
  • O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, Antje; Woollings, Tim
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue 718 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3413
journal December 2018
Enhanced extended‐range predictability of the 2018 late‐winter Eurasian cold spell due to the stratosphere
  • Kautz, Lisa‐Ann; Polichtchouk, Inna; Birner, Thomas
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 727 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3724
journal December 2019
Response of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models journal February 2020
Differences between the 2018 and 2019 stratospheric polar vortex split events
  • Butler, Amy H.; Lawrence, Zachary D.; Lee, Simon H.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 732 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3858
journal August 2020
Representation of the Scandinavia–Greenland pattern and its relationship with the polar vortex in S2S forecast models
  • Lee, Simon H.; Charlton‐Perez, Andrew J.; Furtado, Jason C.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 146, Issue 733 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3892
journal September 2020
Prediction of the quasi‐biennial oscillation with a multi‐model ensemble of QBO ‐resolving models journal October 2020
Sensitivity of QBO teleconnection to model circulation biases
  • Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Rast, Sebastian
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 147, Issue 737 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4014
journal March 2021
Teleconnections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in a multi‐model ensemble of QBO‐resolving models journal June 2021
Impact of 2007 and 2008 Arctic ice anomalies on the atmospheric circulation: Implications for long-range predictions
  • Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Ferranti, Laura; Molteni, Franco
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, Issue 652 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.661
journal September 2010
The wet and stormy UK winter of 2019/2020 journal May 2021
QBO influence on extratropical predictive skill journal March 2008
Impact of transient eddies on extratropical seasonal-mean predictability in DEMETER models journal July 2010
Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction journal May 2011
Autumn atmospheric response to the 2007 low Arctic sea ice extent in coupled ocean–atmosphere hindcasts journal August 2011
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions journal December 2012
CFSv2 ensemble prediction of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation journal July 2013
Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions journal July 2013
The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model journal November 2014
Eurasian snow cover variability and links to winter climate in the CMIP5 models journal January 2015
Connection between weak stratospheric vortex events and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation journal March 2015
Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere journal May 2015
Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1) for operational seasonal forecasting journal April 2016
Impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on predictability of the Madden–Julian oscillation journal October 2016
Skill of Indian summer monsoon rainfall prediction in multiple seasonal prediction systems journal September 2018
Influence of the QBO on MJO prediction skill in the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction models journal March 2019
Predictability of the early winter Arctic oscillation from autumn Eurasian snowcover in subseasonal forecast models journal June 2020
Development of a chemistry module for GCMs: first results of a multiannual integration journal January 1998
Eurasian snow cover variability and northern hemisphere climate predictability journal February 1999
The cold winters of the middle 1990s in the northern lower stratosphere journal June 1999
Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere journal December 1999
Realistic quasi-biennial oscillations in a simulation of the global climate journal November 2000
Northern hemisphere winter climate response to greenhouse gas, ozone, solar, and volcanic forcing journal April 2001
Tropospheric response to stratospheric perturbations in a relatively simple general circulation model journal January 2002
On temperature inversions and the mesospheric surf zone journal January 2002
Variability of the polar night jet in the northern and southern hemispheres journal September 2001
Dynamical response to the solar cycle journal January 2002
Downward migration of extratropical zonal wind anomalies journal January 2003
Sensitivity of northern hemisphere surface climate to simulation of the stratospheric polar vortex: POLAR VORTEX IMPACT ON SURFACE CLIMATE journal June 2003
Downward propagation from the stratosphere to the troposphere: A comparison of the two hemispheres: DOWNWARD PROPAGATION journal December 2003
Stratospheric influence on baroclinic lifecycles and its connection to the Arctic Oscillation journal January 2004
Downward propagation and statistical forecast of the near-surface weather: DOWNWARD PROPAGATION IN WEATHER FORECAST journal July 2005
High sensitivity to the initial condition for the prediction of stratospheric sudden warming: PREDICTABILITY OF SUDDEN WARMING journal September 2005
A stratospheric influence on the winter NAO and North Atlantic surface climate: NAO AND THE STRATOSPHERE journal September 2005
ENSO impact on midlatitude circulation patterns in future climate change projections journal January 2006
Arctic Oscillation response to volcanic eruptions in the IPCC AR4 climate models journal January 2006
On the influence of stratospheric water vapor changes on the tropospheric circulation journal January 2006
Property loss potentials for European midlatitude storms in a changing climate: LOSS POTENTIALS UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE journal March 2007
Modeling the whole atmosphere response to solar cycle changes in radiative and geomagnetic forcing journal January 2007
Impact of the stratosphere on tropospheric climate change: IMPACT STRATOSPHERE ON CLIMATE CHANGE journal June 2008
Tropospheric impact of reflected planetary waves from the stratosphere journal January 2008
Role of the stratosphere on the predictability of medium-range weather forecast: A case study of winter 2003–2004 journal January 2008
Stratospheric influence on circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere troposphere in coupled climate models journal January 2008
Influence of low Arctic sea‐ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters journal January 2009
Influence of stratospheric circulation on the predictability of the tropospheric Northern Annular Mode journal January 2009
Observed stratospheric downward reflection and its relation to upward pulses of wave activity journal January 2009
Ozone hole and Southern Hemisphere climate change: OZONE HOLE AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CLIMATE CHANGE journal August 2009
Stratospheric polar vortex influence on Northern Hemisphere winter climate variability journal January 2009
Improved predictability of stratospheric sudden warming events in an atmospheric general circulation model with enhanced stratospheric resolution journal January 2010
Solar Influences on Climate journal January 2010
Does increasing model stratospheric resolution improve extended-range forecast skill?: STRATOSPHERIC IMPACT ON FORECAST SKILL journal March 2011
El Niño, La Niña, and stratospheric sudden warmings: A reevaluation in light of the observational record: EL NIÑO, LA NIÑA, AND SSWS journal July 2011
A new index for more accurate winter predictions: NEW SNOW INDEX journal November 2011
Improved predictability of the troposphere using stratospheric final warmings journal January 2011
Relationship between the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation and tropospheric circulation in northern autumn: QBO-TROPOSPHERE RELATIONSHIP IN AUTUMN journal December 2011
Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate change in the Northern Hemisphere: STRATOSPHERIC IMPACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE journal March 2012
Observed connection between stratospheric sudden warmings and the Madden-Julian Oscillation: MJO AND SSW journal September 2012
How stationary is the relationship between Siberian snow and Arctic Oscillation over the 20th century?: SNOW-AO OVER THE 20TH CENTURY journal January 2013
Why might stratospheric sudden warmings occur with similar frequency in El Niño and La Niña winters?: ENSO AND SSW journal October 2012
On the influence of North Pacific sea surface temperature on the Arctic winter climate: NORTH PACIFIC SSTs AND ARCTIC CLIMATE journal October 2012
Advancing Climate Forecasting journal November 2017
Differences in Vertical Structure of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Associated With the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation journal May 2018
Nonlinear Response of the Stratosphere and the North Atlantic-European Climate to Global Warming journal May 2018
Stratospheric Connection to the Abrupt End of the 2016/2017 Iberian Drought journal November 2018
Dynamical Precursors for Statistical Prediction of Stratospheric Sudden Warming Events journal December 2018
Predicting Sudden Stratospheric Warming 2018 and Its Climate Impacts With a Multimodel Ensemble journal December 2018
Atmospheric Circulation Response to Anomalous Siberian Forcing in October 2016 and its Long‐Range Predictability journal March 2019
Extratropical Atmospheric Predictability From the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in Subseasonal Forecast Models journal August 2018
Seasonal Evolution of Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling in the Southern Hemisphere and Implications for the Predictability of Surface Climate journal November 2018
Weakening of the Teleconnection From El Niño–Southern Oscillation to the Arctic Stratosphere Over the Past Few Decades: What Can Be Learned From Subseasonal Forecast Models? journal July 2019
Estimating the Frequency of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events From Surface Observations of the North Atlantic Oscillation journal March 2019
Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Predictability of the Southern Hemisphere Eddy‐Driven Jet During Austral Spring and Early Summer journal July 2019
The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere journal January 2019
The Role of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex for the Austral Jet Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing journal June 2019
Nonstationary Relationship Between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation journal July 2019
The Effect of QBO Phase on the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Early Winter journal July 2019
Influence of the QBO on the MJO During Coupled Model Multiweek Forecasts journal August 2019
Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their Surface Impacts journal September 2019
Stratospheric Initial Condition for Skillful Surface Prediction in the ECMWF Model journal November 2019
How Robust is the Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss Across Climate Models? journal October 2019
Links Between Barents‐Kara Sea Ice and the Extratropical Atmospheric Circulation Explained by Internal Variability and Tropical Forcing journal January 2020
Impact of Satellite Observations on Forecasting Sudden Stratospheric Warmings journal March 2020
Observed Relationships Between Sudden Stratospheric Warmings and European Climate Extremes journal December 2019
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling journal January 2020
Tropospheric and Stratospheric Causal Pathways Between the MJO and NAO journal August 2019
Extratropical Prediction Skill of the Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Models journal February 2020
Predicting the Downward and Surface Influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Models journal January 2020
Troposphere‐Stratosphere Coupling in Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Models and Its Importance for a Realistic Extratropical Response to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation journal May 2020
Progress in Simulating the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models journal April 2020
The Lack of QBO‐MJO Connection in CMIP6 Models journal June 2020
Subseasonal Vacillations in the Winter Stratosphere journal May 2020
Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO‐NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models journal November 2020
Robust Enhancement of Tropical Convective Activity by the 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming journal August 2020
Projected Strengthening of the Extratropical Surface Impacts of the Stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation journal October 2020
Seasonal Forecasts of the Exceptional Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2020 journal October 2020
Strengthened Causal Connections Between the MJO and the North Atlantic With Climate Warming journal March 2021
The Southern Hemisphere Minor Sudden Stratospheric Warming in September 2019 and its Predictions in S2S Models journal July 2020
Impact of Interannual Ozone Variations on the Downward Coupling of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Warming journal August 2020
The Remarkably Strong Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex of Winter 2020: Links to Record‐Breaking Arctic Oscillation and Ozone Loss journal November 2020
The Strong Stratospheric Polar Vortex in March 2020 in Sub‐Seasonal to Seasonal Models: Implications for Empirical Prediction of the Low Arctic Total Ozone Extreme journal April 2021
Sudden Stratospheric Warmings journal January 2021
How Frequent Are Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Present and Future Climate? journal June 2021
Winter warming from large volcanic eruptions journal December 1992
On the origin and nature of the interannual variability of the winter stratospheric circulation in the northern hemisphere journal January 1995
Downward propagation of upper stratospheric mean zonal wind perturbation to the troposphere journal August 1990
Propagation of planetary-scale disturbances from the lower into the upper atmosphere journal January 1961
Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atom-catalysed destruction of ozone journal June 1974
Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal ClOx/NOx interaction journal May 1985
Global interdecadal and century-scale climate oscillations during the past five centuries journal November 1995
Proxy evidence for an El Niño-like response to volcanic forcing journal November 2003
Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation journal September 2008
Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss journal September 2014
Bidecadal North Atlantic ocean circulation variability controlled by timing of volcanic eruptions journal March 2015
Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum journal June 2015
Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability journal September 2015
Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere journal October 2011
Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change journal October 2011
A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability journal September 2012
Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings journal January 2013
Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather journal May 2015
Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead journal October 2016
The role of the stratosphere in the European climate response to El Niño journal December 2008
Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss journal February 2022
Snow–atmosphere coupling in the Northern Hemisphere journal October 2018
Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate journal January 2019
Weakened evidence for mid-latitude impacts of Arctic warming journal November 2020
Little influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude climate journal February 2020
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models journal February 2018
Insignificant influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the North Atlantic Oscillation journal January 2019
Australian hot and dry extremes induced by weakenings of the stratospheric polar vortex journal October 2019
Emergence of Southern Hemisphere stratospheric circulation changes in response to ozone recovery journal August 2021
A pause in Southern Hemisphere circulation trends due to the Montreal Protocol journal March 2020
North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply journal July 2020
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate journal March 2017
A signal-to-noise paradox in climate science journal July 2018
Robust skill of decadal climate predictions journal May 2019
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO journal June 2020
Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales journal April 2021
The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden–Julian oscillation journal June 2021
Stratospheric drivers of extreme events at the Earth’s surface journal December 2020
The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations journal January 2017
Radiative‐dynamical climatology of the first‐generation Canadian middle atmosphere model journal September 1997
Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions journal October 2015
A simulated lagged response of the North Atlantic Oscillation to the solar cycle over the period 1960–2009 journal May 2015
Seasonal forecasts of northern hemisphere winter 2009/10 journal September 2012
Separating the stratospheric and tropospheric pathways of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections journal January 2014
The surface impacts of Arctic stratospheric ozone anomalies journal July 2014
Tropospheric jet response to Antarctic ozone depletion: An update with Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) models journal May 2018
Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations journal March 2019
What chance of a sudden stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere? journal September 2020
CMIP5/6 models project little change in the statistical characteristics of sudden stratospheric warmings in the 21st century journal February 2021
Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum journal December 2009
Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere general circulation model
  • Huebener, H.; Cubasch, U.; Langematz, U.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1857 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2007.2078
journal June 2007
The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion journal June 1969
A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss journal July 2018
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes journal October 2001
Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change journal May 2002
Stratospheric Memory and Skill of Extended-Range Weather Forecasts journal August 2003
Improved Surface Temperature Prediction for the Coming Decade from a Global Climate Model journal August 2007
The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet journal June 2008
Impact of Polar Ozone Depletion on Subtropical Precipitation journal April 2011
Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer journal June 2016
The Statistical Connection between Tropospheric and Stratospheric Circulation of the Northern Hemisphere in Winter journal October 1995
The Response of the Stratospheric Climate to Projected Changes in the Concentrations of Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases from 1992 to 2051 journal July 2000
Stratospheric Connection to Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Weather: Implications for Prediction journal June 2002
Observational Evidence of a Stratospheric Influence on the Troposphere by Planetary Wave Reflection journal September 2003
Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in a Relatively Simple AGCM: The Role of Eddies journal February 2004
On the Mutual Relation between Stratosphere and Troposphere during Periods of Stratospheric Warmings in Winter journal February 1965
The Influence of the Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on the Global Circulation at 50 mb journal October 1980
Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means journal December 1981
The Influence of the Polar Night Jet on the Tropospheric Circulation in a GCM journal April 1984
The GISS Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model. Part I: Model Structure and Climatology journal February 1988
On the “Downward Control” of Extratropical Diabatic Circulations by Eddy-Induced Mean Zonal Forces journal February 1991
The Effect of Reflecting Surfaces on the Vertical Structure and Variability of Stratospheric Planetary Waves journal October 2001
Dynamical Mechanisms for Stratospheric Influences on the Troposphere journal July 2004
The GCM–Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS): Scientific Issues and Initial Results journal April 2000
European Climate Extremes and the North Atlantic Oscillation journal January 2008
The Dynamical Response to Snow Cover Perturbations in a Large Ensemble of Atmospheric GCM Integrations journal March 2009
An Observed Connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal January 2009
Impact of the Stratosphere on the Winter Tropospheric Teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic and European Region journal March 2009
Impact of Climate Change on Stratospheric Sudden Warmings as Simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model journal October 2009
Enhanced Seasonal Prediction of European Winter Warming following Volcanic Eruptions journal December 2009
The Influence of the Basic State on the Northern Hemisphere Circulation Response to Climate Change journal March 2010
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere journal February 2011
Separating the Dynamical Effects of Climate Change and Ozone Depletion. Part II: Southern Hemisphere Troposphere journal March 2011
100 Years of Progress in Understanding the Stratosphere and Mesosphere journal January 2019
Assessing and Understanding the Impact of Stratospheric Dynamics and Variability on the Earth System journal June 2012
Feeling the Pulse of the Stratosphere: An Emerging Opportunity for Predicting Continental-Scale Cold-Air Outbreaks 1 Month in Advance journal August 2016
The Climate-System Historical Forecast Project: Providing Open Access to Seasonal Forecast Ensembles from Centers around the Globe journal November 2017
Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond journal May 2020
Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction journal June 2020
The 2019 Southern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Weakening and Its Impacts journal June 2021
Quantifying Causal Pathways of Teleconnections journal December 2021
Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling in the Southern Hemisphere journal March 2005
On the Northern Annular Mode Surface Signal Associated with Stratospheric Variability journal July 2013
Lower-Stratospheric Radiative Damping and Polar-Night Jet Oscillation Events journal May 2013
The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings* journal October 2014
Predictability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings: Analysis Results from JMA Operational 1-Month Ensemble Predictions from 2001/02 to 2012/13 journal February 2016
Dynamics and Predictability of Downward-Propagating Stratospheric Planetary Waves Observed in March 2007 journal October 2017
Seasonal Winter Forecasts of the Northern Stratosphere and Troposphere: Results from JMA Seasonal Hindcast Experiments journal March 2018
The Impact of the QBO on MJO Convection in Cloud-Resolving Simulations journal March 2019
What Is the Predictability Limit of Midlatitude Weather? journal April 2019
Impact of the Mesoscale Range on Error Growth and the Limits to Atmospheric Predictability journal November 2020
The Effect of Lower Stratospheric Shear on Baroclinic Instability journal February 2007
Impact of Antarctic Ozone Depletion and Recovery on Southern Hemisphere Precipitation, Evaporation, and Extreme Changes journal May 2012
The Life Cycle of Northern Hemisphere Downward Wave Coupling between the Stratosphere and Troposphere journal March 2013
Delayed Southern Hemisphere Climate Change Induced by Stratospheric Ozone Recovery, as Projected by the CMIP5 Models journal January 2014
Linking Siberian Snow Cover to Precursors of Stratospheric Variability journal July 2014
Skillful Seasonal Prediction of the Southern Annular Mode and Antarctic Ozone journal October 2014
Mechanisms of Stratospheric and Tropospheric Circulation Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss journal October 2015
Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation journal June 2016
Distinguishing Stratospheric Sudden Warmings from ENSO as Key Drivers of Wintertime Climate Variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia journal March 2017
Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere journal June 2017
Atmospheric Response to Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice: The Importance of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling and the Background State journal June 2017
Stratospheric Control of the Madden–Julian Oscillation journal March 2017
Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment journal August 2017
Revisiting the ENSO–SSW Relationship journal March 2018
Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere Climate Variability Associated with the Seasonal Breakdown of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex journal August 2017
How Predictable Are the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations? Exploring the Variability and Predictability of the Northern Hemisphere journal January 2018
Seasonal Persistence of Circulation Anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere and Its Implications for the Troposphere journal May 2018
The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change journal August 2018
The Generic Nature of the Tropospheric Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings journal July 2020
Siberian Snow Forcing in a Dynamically Bias-Corrected Model journal December 2020
How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models? journal October 2020
Transient Extratropical Response to Solar Ultraviolet Radiation in the Northern Hemisphere Winter journal May 2021
Development of the Extratropical Response to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation journal June 2021
Mechanisms of Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in HadGEM3-GC3.1 at Two Different Resolutions journal February 2022
The Influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the Northern Winter Stratosphere: Ensemble Simulations with the MAECHAM5 Model journal August 2006
The Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System. Part I: Models and Initialization journal August 2013
Predictability of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the ECMWF Extended-Range Forecast System journal April 2018
The Influence of Stratospheric Wave Reflection on North American Cold Spells journal April 2020
Simple Statistical Probabilistic Forecasts of the Winter NAO journal August 2017
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1 journal December 2020
Can knowledge of the state of the stratosphere be used to improve statistical forecasts of the troposphere? journal October 2003
Middle atmosphere variability in the UK Meteorological Office Unified Model journal July 1998
The Influence of the Stratosphere on the Tropical Troposphere journal January 2021
Eurasian Cold Surges Triggered by the Nonlinear Reflection of Stratospheric Planetary Waves in December 2012 journal January 2017
Seasonal Predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Zonal Mean Fields Associated with Stratospheric Influence in JMA/MRI-CPS2 journal January 2017
Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes journal May 2013
No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI journal January 2018
Surface impacts of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation journal January 2018
Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models journal January 2019
The effect of interactive ozone chemistry on weak and strong stratospheric polar vortex events journal January 2020
A tropospheric pathway of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) impact on the boreal winter polar vortex journal January 2020
SEAS5: the new ECMWF seasonal forecast system journal January 2019
Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018 journal January 2020
The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes journal January 2020

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES