Seasonality of Interbasin SST Contributions to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

West, Robert; Lopez, Hosmay; Lee, Sang‐Ki; Mercer, Andrew E.; Kim, Dongmin; Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik

doi:10.1029/2021GL096712

Title: Seasonality of Interbasin SST Contributions to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Journal Article · 17 February 2022 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL096712 · OSTI ID:1845725

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Northern Gulf Institute Mississippi State University Mississippi State MS USA, NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami FL USA
NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami FL USA
Northern Gulf Institute Mississippi State University Mississippi State MS USA, Department of Geosciences Mississippi State University Mississippi State MS USA
NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Miami FL USA, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies University of Miami Miami FL USA
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA

Abstract Recent studies have demonstrated that the difference in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) between the tropical Atlantic main development region (MDR) and the tropical Pacific (Niño 3) modulates Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This study further explores the seasonality of Pacific and Atlantic contributions to Atlantic hurricane activity. Our analysis shows that while MDR and Niño 3 SSTAs are equally important for late‐season (September–November) activity, early‐season (June‐August) activity is largely modulated by MDR SSTAs. This reflects the increased (reduced) variance of MDR (Niño 3) SSTAs in the early‐season due to their phase locking to the seasonal cycle. Further analysis yields skillful forecasts using an MDR‐Niño 3 interbasin index derived from hindcasts of the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble with May initial conditions. However, the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is lower than that of Niño 3 SSTAs, suggesting that increasing the prediction skill for MDR SSTAs is key to improving seasonal outlooks.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1845725

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 49; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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