DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1844445
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 17; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

References (82)

Hyper-resolution global hydrological modelling: what is next?: “Everywhere and locally relevant” journal December 2014
Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation journal January 2018
Modeling the behavior of water reservoir operators via eigenbehavior analysis journal December 2018
Climate change impacts and greenhouse gas mitigation effects on U.S. hydropower generation journal December 2016
Implications of hydropower variability from climate change for a future, highly-renewable electric grid in California journal March 2019
Sensitivity of Western U.S. power system dynamics to droughts compounded with fuel price variability journal May 2019
Virtual energy storage gain resulting from the spatio-temporal coordination of hydropower over Europe journal August 2020
Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid journal October 2020
Stochastic short-term hydropower planning with inflow scenario trees journal June 2017
Enhancing hydropower modeling in variable generation integration studies journal September 2014
Projecting changes in annual hydropower generation using regional runoff data: An assessment of the United States federal hydropower plants journal February 2015
A systematic review of the impacts of climate variability and change on electricity systems in Europe journal August 2016
Vulnerability of the US western electric grid to hydro-climatological conditions: How bad can it get? journal November 2016
Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs journal December 2017
Interactions between climate change mitigation and adaptation: The case of hydropower in Brazil journal December 2018
Core Process Representation in Power System Operational Models: Gaps, Challenges, and Opportunities for Multisector Dynamics Research journal September 2021
The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis journal May 2005
The vulnerability of renewable energy to climate change in Brazil journal March 2009
Vulnerability of hydropower generation to climate change in China: Results based on Grey forecasting model journal February 2014
Climate impacts on hydropower in Colombia: A multi-model assessment of power sector adaptation pathways journal May 2019
Water supply sensitivity to climate change: An R package for implementing reservoir storage analysis in global and regional impact studies journal February 2016
A generic data-driven technique for forecasting of reservoir inflow: Application for hydropower maximization journal September 2019
Hydropower under climate uncertainty: Characterizing the usable capacity of Brazilian, Colombian and Peruvian power plants under climate scenarios journal April 2021
Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system journal May 2010
Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change journal September 2016
Hydropower dependency and climate change in sub-Saharan Africa: A nexus framework and evidence-based review journal September 2019
A reservoir operation scheme for global river routing models journal July 2006
A surrogate model for the Variable Infiltration Capacity model using deep learning artificial neural network journal September 2020
Descriptive or normative: How does reservoir operations modeling influence hydrological simulations under climate change? journal April 2021
Increased water risks to global hydropower in 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C Warmer Worlds journal August 2021
Water storage and release policies for all large reservoirs of conterminous United States journal December 2021
Impacts of climate change, policy and Water-Energy-Food nexus on hydropower development journal February 2018
Hydropower revenues under the threat of climate change in Brazil journal April 2019
A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios journal May 2017
A review of the potential impacts of climate change on bulk power system planning and operations in the United States journal December 2018
Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model journal July 2017
Effects of Climate Change on Capacity Expansion Decisions of an Electricity Generation Fleet in the Southeast U.S. journal January 2021
Anthropogenic impacts on continental surface water fluxes journal January 2006
A stochastic approach to analyze trade-offs and risks associated with large-scale water resources systems: TRADE-OFFS AND RISKS IN LARGE-SCALE WATER RESOURCES SYSTEMS journal June 2007
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenario drivers (1970-2050): Climate and hydrological alterations: GLOBAL NEWS HYDROLOGY journal July 2010
Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water: OPINION journal May 2011
A Continental‐Scale Hydroeconomic Model for Integrating Water‐Energy‐Land Nexus Solutions journal October 2018
Towards Global Hydrological Drought Monitoring Using Remotely Sensed Reservoir Surface Area journal November 2019
The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO 2 Emissions journal March 2021
Analyzing the Impact of Streamflow Drought on Hydroelectricity Production: A Global‐Scale Study journal April 2021
Continental Hydrologic Intercomparison Project, Phase 1: A Large‐Scale Hydrologic Model Comparison Over the Continental United States journal June 2021
Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western United States journal May 2015
Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources journal January 2016
Burden on hydropower units for short-term balancing of renewable power systems journal July 2018
Solar energy and regional coordination as a feasible alternative to large hydropower in Southeast Asia journal July 2021
High-resolution assessment of global technical and economic hydropower potential journal September 2017
Hydropower plans in eastern and southern Africa increase risk of concurrent climate-related electricity supply disruption journal December 2017
Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios journal August 2020
Human alteration of global surface water storage variability journal March 2021
A comprehensive view of global potential for hydro-generated electricity journal January 2015
Balancing Hydropower Development and Ecological Impacts in the Mekong: Tradeoffs for Sambor Mega Dam journal February 2019
Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide journal December 2016
Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices journal July 2013
Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation on global hydropower production journal March 2017
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C warming journal April 2018
Global exposure and vulnerability to multi-sector development and climate change hotspots journal May 2018
Non-stationary hydropower generation projections constrained by environmental and electricity grid operations over the western United States journal July 2018
The implications of future climate change on the blue water footprint of hydropower in the contiguous US * journal February 2021
Improving hydrogeneration representation in a production cost model used for long-term transmission studies in the Western Interconnection conference March 2011
Optimal Medium-Term Hydropower Scheduling Considering Energy and Reserve Capacity Markets journal July 2016
Connections between groundwater flow and transpiration partitioning journal July 2016
Opportunities for Joint Water–Energy Management: Sensitivity of the 2010 Western U.S. Electricity Grid Operations to Climate Oscillations journal February 2018
Systematic high-resolution assessment of global hydropower potential journal February 2017
High‐resolution mapping of the world's reservoirs and dams for sustainable river‐flow management
  • Lehner, Bernhard; Liermann, Catherine Reidy; Revenga, Carmen
  • Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1890/100125
journal May 2011
Existing Hydropower Assets Plant Dataset FY20 dataset January 2020
Future Changes in Theoretical Hydropower Potential and Hydropower Generation Based on River Flow under Climate Change [気候変動にともなう理論包蔵水力と流況に基づく水力発電量の将来変化] journal January 2014
A grid Based Assessment of Global Theoretical Hydropower Potential journal January 2008
Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Global Hydropower journal February 2012
Development of a Deep Learning Emulator for a Distributed Groundwater–Surface Water Model: ParFlow-ML journal December 2021
Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble journal January 2021
PCR-GLOBWB 2: a 5 arcmin global hydrological and water resources model journal January 2018
Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China journal January 2016
Monitoring small reservoirs' storage with satellite remote sensing in inaccessible areas journal January 2017
Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States journal January 2020
On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments journal January 2020
Impact of the quality of hydrological forecasts on the management and revenue of hydroelectric reservoirs – a conceptual approach journal January 2021
Coordination and control – limits in standard representations of multi-reservoir operations in hydrological modeling journal January 2021