Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Zanis, Prodromos; Akritidis, Dimitris; Turnock, Steven; Naik, Vaishali; Szopa, Sophie; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Bauer, Susanne E.; Deushi, Makoto; Horowitz, Larry W.; Keeble, James; Le Sager, Philippe; O’Connor, Fiona M.; Oshima, Naga; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; van Noije, Twan

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34

Title: Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Journal Article · 28 January 2022 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac4a34 · OSTI ID:1842554

Zanis, Prodromos; Akritidis, Dimitris; Turnock, Steven; Naik, Vaishali; Szopa, Sophie; Georgoulias, Aristeidis K.; Bauer, Susanne E.;

; Horowitz, Larry W.; Keeble, James; Le Sager, Philippe; O’Connor, Fiona M.;

; Tsigaridis, Konstantinos; van Noije, Twan

Abstract This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C ⁻¹ is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C ⁻¹ , with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C ⁻¹ , implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE EM Office of Technology Innovation and Development (EM-30)

OSTI ID:: 1842554

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 17; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate Lin, Meiyun; Horowitz, Larry W.; Payton, Richard Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-2943-2017	journal	January 2017
Effects of ozone–vegetation coupling on surface ozone air quality via biogeochemical and meteorological feedbacks Sadiq, Mehliyar; Tai, Amos P. K.; Lombardozzi, Danica Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-3055-2017	journal	January 2017
Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O₃ and PM_2.5 over India Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-103-2018	journal	January 2018
Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations Morgenstern, Olaf; Stone, Kane A.; Schofield, Robyn Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-1091-2018	journal	January 2018
Coupling between surface ozone and leaf area index in a chemical transport model: strength of feedback and implications for ozone air quality and vegetation health Zhou, Shan S.; Tai, Amos P. K.; Sun, Shihan Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-14133-2018	journal	January 2018
The potential effects of climate change on air quality across the conterminous US at 2030 under three Representative Concentration Pathways Nolte, Christopher G.; Spero, Tanya L.; Bowden, Jared H. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-15471-2018	journal	January 2018
Effects of temperature-dependent NO _x emissions on continental ozone production Romer, Paul S.; Duffey, Kaitlin C.; Wooldridge, Paul J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2601-2018	journal	January 2018
Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery Meul, Stefanie; Langematz, Ulrike; Kröger, Philipp Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018	journal	January 2018
Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future Zhang, Junxi; Gao, Yang; Luo, Kun Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 18, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-9861-2018	journal	January 2018
Substantial ozone enhancement over the North China Plain from increased biogenic emissions due to heat waves and land cover in summer 2017 Ma, Mingchen; Gao, Yang; Wang, Yuhang Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-12195-2019	journal	January 2019
On the impact of future climate change on tropopause folds and tropospheric ozone Akritidis, Dimitris; Pozzer, Andrea; Zanis, Prodromos Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-14387-2019	journal	January 2019
Historical and future changes in air pollutants from CMIP6 models Turnock, Steven T.; Allen, Robert J.; Andrews, Martin Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 20, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020	journal	January 2020
Tropospheric ozone in CMIP6 simulations Griffiths, Paul T.; Murray, Lee T.; Zeng, Guang Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4187-2021	journal	January 2021
Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100 Keeble, James; Hassler, Birgit; Banerjee, Antara Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 21, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-5015-2021	journal	January 2021
Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature) Guenther, A.; Karl, T.; Harley, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 6, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006	journal	January 2006
Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Unger, N. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 6, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-6-4427-2006	journal	January 2006
Impact of climate change on tropospheric ozone and its global budgets Zeng, G.; Pyle, J. A.; Young, P. J. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-369-2008	journal	January 2008
The status and challenge of global fire modelling Hantson, Stijn; Arneth, Almut; Harrison, Sandy P. Biogeosciences, Vol. 13, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3359-2016	journal	January 2016
Development and evaluation of an ozone deposition scheme for coupling to a terrestrial biosphere model Franz, Martina; Simpson, David; Arneth, Almut Biogeosciences, Vol. 14, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-45-2017	journal	January 2017
The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions Rabin, Sam S.; Melton, Joe R.; Lasslop, Gitta Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1175-2017	journal	January 2017
Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6) Meinshausen, Malte; Vogel, Elisabeth; Nauels, Alexander Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017	journal	January 2017
Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2) Matthes, Katja; Funke, Bernd; Andersson, Monika E. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017	journal	January 2017
Historic global biomass burning emissions for CMIP6 (BB4CMIP) based on merging satellite observations with proxies and fire models (1750–2015) van Marle, Margreet J. E.; Kloster, Silvia; Magi, Brian I. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3329-2017	journal	January 2017
AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6 Collins, William J.; Lamarque, Jean-François; Schulz, Michael Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-585-2017	journal	January 2017
Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) Hoesly, Rachel M.; Smith, Steven J.; Feng, Leyang Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018	journal	January 2018
Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century Gidden, Matthew J.; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019	journal	January 2019
The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 7.0/7.1 and JULES Global Land 7.0 configurations Walters, David; Baran, Anthony J.; Boutle, Ian Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1909-2019	journal	January 2019
Description and evaluation of the UKCA stratosphere–troposphere chemistry scheme (StratTrop vn 1.0) implemented in UKESM1 Archibald, Alexander T.; O'Connor, Fiona M.; Abraham, Nathan Luke Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1223-2020	journal	January 2020
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500 Meinshausen, Malte; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Lewis, Jared Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3571-2020	journal	January 2020
The generation of gridded emissions data for CMIP6 Feng, Leyang; Smith, Steven J.; Braun, Caleb Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-461-2020	journal	January 2020
EC-Earth3-AerChem: a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6 van Noije, Twan; Bergman, Tommi; Le Sager, Philippe Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5637-2021	journal	January 2021
Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 1: The stratosphere Morgenstern, O.; Braesicke, P.; O'Connor, F. M. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2-43-2009	journal	January 2009
Simulation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols with the climate model EC-Earth van Noije, T. P. C.; Le Sager, P.; Segers, A. J. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2435-2014	journal	January 2014
Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 2: The Troposphere O'Connor, F. M.; Johnson, C. E.; Morgenstern, O. Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-41-2014	journal	January 2014

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