Host-region parameters for an adjustable model for crustal earthquakes to facilitate the implementation of the backbone approach to building ground-motion logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

Journal Article · 26 January 2022 · Earthquake Spectra

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930211063221 · OSTI ID:1842524

Stafford, Peter J.  ^[1]; Boore, David M. ^[2]; Youngs, Robert R. ^[3]; Bommer, Julian J.  ^[1]

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1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, UK
2. Los Altos, CA, USA
3. Wood Environment & Infrastructure Solutions, Inc., Oakland, CA, USA

The backbone approach to constructing a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can address shortcomings in the traditional approach of populating the branches with multiple existing, or potentially modified, ground-motion models (GMMs) by rendering more transparent the relationship between branch weights and the resulting distribution of predicted accelerations. To capture epistemic uncertainty in a tractable manner, there are benefits in building the logic tree through the application of successive adjustments for differences in source, path, and site characteristics between the host region of the selected backbone GMM and the target region for which the PSHA is being conducted. The implementation of this approach is facilitated by selecting a backbone GMM that is amenable to such host-to-target adjustments for individual source, path, and site characteristics. The NGA-West2 GMM of Chiou and Youngs (CY14) has been identified as a highly adaptable model for crustal seismicity that is well suited to such adjustments. Rather than using generic source, path, and site characteristics assumed appropriate for the host region, the final suite of adjusted GMMs for the target region will be better constrained if the host-region parameters are defined specifically on the basis of their compatibility with the CY14 backbone GMM. To this end, making use of a recently developed crustal shear-wave velocity profile consistent with CY14, we present an inversion of the model to estimate the key source and path parameters, namely the stress parameter and the anelastic attenuation. With these outputs, the effort in constructing a ground-motion logic tree for any PSHA dealing with crustal seismicity can be focused primarily on the estimation of the target-region characteristics and their associated uncertainties. The inversion procedure can also be adapted for any application in which different constraints might be relevant.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• OSTI ID: 1842524
• Journal Information: Earthquake Spectra, Journal Name: Earthquake Spectra Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 38; ISSN 8755-2930
• Publisher: SAGE PublicationsCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English