Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Sampedro, Jon; Iyer, Gokul; Msangi, Siwa; Waldhoff, Stephanie; Hejazi, Mohamad; Edmonds, James A.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df

Title: Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Journal Article · 04 January 2022 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac43df · OSTI ID:1838373

;

; Msangi, Siwa;

; Hejazi, Mohamad; Edmonds, James A.

Abstract Future income distribution will affect energy demand and its interactions with various societal priorities. Most future model simulations assume a single average consumer and thus miss this important demand determinant. We quantify long-term implications of alternative future income distributions for state-level residential energy demand, investment, greenhouse gas, and pollutant emission patterns in the United States (U.S.) by incorporating income quintiles into the residential energy sector of the Global Change Analysis Model with 50-state disaggregation. We find that if the income distribution within each U.S. state becomes more egalitarian than present, what means that the difference on income between the richest and poorest decreases over time, residential energy demand could be 10% (4%–14% across states) higher in 2100. This increase of residential energy demand will directly reduce energy poverty, with a very modest increment on economywide CO ₂ emissions (1%–2%). On the other hand, if U.S. states transition to a less equitable income distribution than present, with the difference between richest and poorest increasing over time, residential energy demand could be 19% (12%–26% across states) lower. While this study focuses on a single sector, we conclude that to improve understanding of synergies and tradeoffs across multiple societal goals such as energy access, emissions, and investments, future model simulations should explicitly consider subregional income distribution impacts.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1838373

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-157121

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 17; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

References (56)

Less global inequality can improve climate outcomes Rao, Narasimha D.; Min, Jihoon WIREs Climate Change, Vol. 9, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.513	journal	February 2018
Energy demand and population changes Allen, Edward L.; Edmonds, James A. Atlantic Economic Journal, Vol. 9, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02300592	journal	September 1981
The effect of global climate change, population distribution, and climate mitigation on building energy use in the U.S. and China Zhou, Yuyu; Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon Climatic Change, Vol. 119, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0772-x	journal	May 2013
Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market Clarke, John F.; Edmonds, J. A. Energy Economics, Vol. 15, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/0140-9883(93)90031-L	journal	April 1993
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Murray, Christopher J. L.; Aravkin, Aleksandr Y.; Zheng, Peng The Lancet, Vol. 396, Issue 10258 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2	journal	October 2020
Typical occupancy profiles and behaviors in residential buildings in the United States Mitra, Debrudra; Steinmetz, Nicholas; Chu, Yiyi Energy and Buildings, Vol. 210 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.109713	journal	March 2020
Distributional impacts of carbon pricing: A general equilibrium approach with micro-data for households Rausch, Sebastian; Metcalf, Gilbert E.; Reilly, John M. Energy Economics, Vol. 33 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.023	journal	December 2011
Household energy prices and inequality: Evidence from German microdata based on the EASI demand system Tovar Reaños, Miguel A.; Wölfing, Nikolas M. Energy Economics, Vol. 70 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2017.12.002	journal	February 2018
Effects of long-term climate change on global building energy expenditures Clarke, Leon; Eom, Jiyong; Marten, Elke Hodson Energy Economics, Vol. 72 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2018.01.003	journal	May 2018
Integrated modeling of human-earth system interactions: An application of GCAM-fusion Hartin, Corinne; Link, Robert; Patel, Pralit Energy Economics, Vol. 103 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2021.105566	journal	November 2021
China's building energy demand: Long-term implications from a detailed assessment Eom, Jiyong; Clarke, Leon; Kim, Son H. Energy, Vol. 46, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2012.08.009	journal	October 2012
Future western U.S. building electricity consumption in response to climate and population drivers: A comparative study of the impact of model structure Burleyson, Casey D.; Iyer, Gokul; Hejazi, Mohamad Energy, Vol. 208 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118312	journal	October 2020
Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change Isaac, Morna; van Vuuren, Detlef P. Energy Policy, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.09.051	journal	February 2009
Household electricity and gas consumption for heating homes Jeong, Jaehoon; Seob Kim, Chang; Lee, Jongsu Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.037	journal	May 2011
Model projections for household energy use in India van Ruijven, Bas J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vries, Bert J. M. Energy Policy, Vol. 39, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.021	journal	December 2011
Building stock dynamics and its impacts on materials and energy demand in China Hong, Lixuan; Zhou, Nan; Feng, Wei Energy Policy, Vol. 94 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.03.024	journal	July 2016
Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa Dagnachew, Anteneh G.; Lucas, Paul L.; Hof, Andries F. Energy Policy, Vol. 114 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.023	journal	March 2018
Inequality as an obstacle to sustainable electricity and transport energy use Andrich, Mark A.; Imberger, Jörg; Oxburgh, E. R. Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol. 17, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2013.04.002	journal	August 2013
Income inequality projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Rao, Narasimha D.; Sauer, Petra; Gidden, Matthew Futures, Vol. 105 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2018.07.001	journal	January 2019
Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives Bauer, Nico; Calvin, Katherine; Emmerling, Johannes Global Environmental Change, Vol. 42 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.07.006	journal	January 2017
The impact of income inequality on consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions at the global level: A partially linear approach Baležentis, Tomas; Liobikienė, Genovaitė; Štreimikienė, Dalia Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 267 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110635	journal	August 2020
Representing inequalities in integrated assessment modeling of climate change Emmerling, Johannes; Tavoni, Massimo One Earth, Vol. 4, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.01.013	journal	February 2021
Eliminating Extreme Inequality: A Sustainable Development Goal, 2015–2030 Doyle, Michael W.; Stiglitz, Joseph E. Ethics & International Affairs, Vol. 28, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1017/S0892679414000021	journal	January 2014
“What We Breathe Impacts Our Health: Improving Understanding of the Link between Air Pollution and Health” West, J. Jason; Cohen, Aaron; Dentener, Frank Environmental Science & Technology, Vol. 50, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b03827	journal	May 2016
Sustainable development goals for people and planet Griggs, David; Stafford-Smith, Mark; Gaffney, Owen Nature, Vol. 495, Issue 7441 https://doi.org/10.1038/495305a	journal	March 2013
Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D. Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2015.10	journal	January 2016
Poverty eradication in a carbon constrained world Hubacek, Klaus; Baiocchi, Giovanni; Feng, Kuishuang Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-00919-4	journal	October 2017
Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research Rao, Narasimha D.; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Riahi, Keywan Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0004-x	journal	November 2017
Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Stehfest, Elke; Gernaat, David E. H. J. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0119-8	journal	April 2018
Mapping synergies and trade-offs between energy and the Sustainable Development Goals Fuso Nerini, Francesco; Tomei, Julia; To, Long Seng Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-017-0036-5	journal	November 2017
A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies Grubler, Arnulf; Wilson, Charlie; Bento, Nuno Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6	journal	June 2018
Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals McCollum, David L.; Zhou, Wenji; Bertram, Christoph Nature Energy, Vol. 3, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-018-0179-z	journal	June 2018
Large inequality in international and intranational energy footprints between income groups and across consumption categories Oswald, Yannick; Owen, Anne; Steinberger, Julia K. Nature Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0579-8	journal	March 2020
Recognition of and response to energy poverty in the United States Bednar, Dominic J.; Reames, Tony G. Nature Energy, Vol. 5, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-0582-0	journal	March 2020
Infrastructure for sustainable development Thacker, Scott; Adshead, Daniel; Fay, Marianne Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0256-8	journal	April 2019
Connecting climate action with other Sustainable Development Goals Fuso Nerini, Francesco; Sovacool, Benjamin; Hughes, Nick Nature Sustainability, Vol. 2, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0334-y	journal	July 2019
Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B.; Fleurbaey, Marc Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 112, Issue 52 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1513967112	journal	December 2015
An impact assessment of sustainable technologies for the Chinese urban residential sector at provincial level Xing, Rui; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Kanamori, Yuko Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/065001	journal	June 2015
Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030 Pachauri, Shonali; van Ruijven, Bas J.; Nagai, Yu Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024015	journal	May 2013
Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa Van de Ven, Dirk-Jan; Sampedro, Jon; Johnson, Francis X. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab375d	journal	August 2019
Energy demand transitions and climate mitigation in low-income urban households in India Khosla, Radhika; Sircar, Neelanjan; Bhardwaj, Ankit Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3760	journal	September 2019
Population scenarios for U.S. states consistent with shared socioeconomic pathways Jiang, Leiwen; O’Neill, Brian C.; Zoraghein, Hamidreza Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba5b1	journal	September 2020
Integrating energy access, efficiency and renewable energy policies in sub-Saharan Africa: a model-based analysis Dagnachew, Anteneh G.; Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel; Pachauri, Shonali Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcbb9	journal	December 2020
Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals Bertram, Christoph; Riahi, Keywan; Hilaire, Jérôme Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae	journal	June 2021
Carbon emissions and income inequality Ravallion, M. Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 52, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/52.4.651	journal	October 2000
Long-Run Demand for Energy Services: Income and Price Elasticities over Two Hundred Years Fouquet, Roger Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/reu002	journal	June 2014
Contradictions of the Climate‐Friendly City: New Perspectives on Eco‐Gentrification and Housing Justice Rice, Jennifer L.; Cohen, Daniel Aldana; Long, Joshua International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Vol. 44, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2427.12740	journal	March 2019
A Model of Household Heating Demand: Home Production with Satiety and an Endowment Anderson, Joan Gray; Kushman, John E. Journal of Consumer Affairs, Vol. 21, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-6606.1987.tb00185.x	journal	June 1987
Energy poverty indicators: A critical review of methods Herrero, Sergio Tirado Indoor and Built Environment, Vol. 26, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1177/1420326X17718054	journal	August 2017
Powering up China: Income Distributions and Residential Electricity Consumption Auffhammer, Maximilian; Wolfram, Catherine D. American Economic Review, Vol. 104, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.5.575	journal	May 2014
Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development Wagner, Liam; Ross, Ian; Foster, John PLOS ONE, Vol. 11, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149406	journal	March 2016
Household air pollution and the sustainable development goals Amegah, Adeladza Kofi; Jaakkola, Jouni JK Bulletin of the World Health Organization, Vol. 94, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.15.155812	journal	January 2016
The Impact of Income Inequality on Carbon Emissions in China: A Household-Level Analysis Liu, Yulin; Zhang, Min; Liu, Rujia Sustainability, Vol. 12, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/su12072715	journal	March 2020
U.S. State-level Projections of the Spatial Distribution of Population Consistent with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Zoraghein, Hamidreza; O’Neill, Brian C. Sustainability, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.3390/su12083374	journal	April 2020
GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems Calvin, Katherine; Patel, Pralit; Clarke, Leon Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-677-2019	journal	January 2019
Fuelling Growth: What Drives Energy Demand in Developing Countries? van Benthem, Arthur; Romani, Mattia The Energy Journal, Vol. 30, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-5	journal	July 2009

Similar Records

Non-parametric projections of the net-income distribution for all U.S. states for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Journal Article · 2023 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:2067652

Casper, Kelly C.; Narayan, Kanishka B.; O’Neill, Brian C.; +3 more

Long-term decarbonization impacts on residential energy security across income groups and US states

Journal Article · 2025 · Environmental Research Letters · OSTI ID:2560933

Zhang, Ying; Ou, Yang; Waldhoff, Stephanie; +4 more

A structural analysis of natural gas consumption by income class from 1987 to 1993

Technical Report · 1996 · OSTI ID:456314

Poyer, D A

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
energy access
energy demand
environmental impacts
income distribution

Title: Implications of different income distributions for future residential energy demand in the U.S.

Citation Formats

References (56)

Similar Records

Related Subjects