Disaggregating growth in future retail electricity rates

Journal Article · 14 December 2021 · Electricity Journal

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tej.2021.107065 · OSTI ID:1838338

Cappers, Peter A. ^[1]; Forrester, Sydney ^[1]; Satchwell, Andrew J. ^[1]

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1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

The retail rate impacts of a number of emerging trends (e.g., rapid deployment of electric vehicles and storage, transmission build-out for large-scale renewables deployment, and grid modernization) are unknown. Importantly, decision-makers are concerned about the potential future rate impacts on energy affordability and equity. We disaggregate the key drivers of retail electricity rates and assess their impacts on future rate growth considering their interactions and uncertainty. Specifically, we develop ranges of future cost growth for a generic investor-owned and vertically-integrated electric utility representing typical cost and operating characteristics. The rate driver growth rate ranges are applied in isolation and jointly to quantify the uncertainty and variability in future retail electricity rates. The results identify what rate drivers and factors may minimize and/or decrease uncertainty in retail rate growth and their linkages to industry trends.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 1838338
• Journal Information: Electricity Journal, Journal Name: Electricity Journal Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 35; ISSN 1040-6190
• Publisher: ElsevierCopyright Statement
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
Electric utility costs
Retail electricity rates
Uncertainty analysis