Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America
Abstract
Abstract Snowpack and snowmelt‐driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow‐related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain‐on‐snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2];
[3]
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Greenbelt, MD (United States). Hydrological Sciences Lab.; Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States). Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Earth Systems Research Center. Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States); Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1837005
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1830446
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0016605; SC0016438; DE‐SC0016605; DE‐SC0016438
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Geophysical Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 48; Journal Issue: 22; Journal ID: ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; NA-CORDEX; regional climate model; climate change; snowmelt; snowpack; extreme events
Citation Formats
Cho, Eunsang, McCrary, Rachel R., and Jacobs, Jennifer M. Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1029/2021gl094985.
Cho, Eunsang, McCrary, Rachel R., & Jacobs, Jennifer M. Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094985
Cho, Eunsang, McCrary, Rachel R., and Jacobs, Jennifer M. Fri .
"Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gl094985. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1837005.
@article{osti_1837005,
title = {Future Changes in Snowpack, Snowmelt, and Runoff Potential Extremes Over North America},
author = {Cho, Eunsang and McCrary, Rachel R. and Jacobs, Jennifer M.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Snowpack and snowmelt‐driven extreme events (e.g., floods) have large societal consequences including infrastructure failures. However, it is not well understood how projected changes in the snow‐related extremes differ across North America. Using dynamically downscaled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, we found that the magnitudes of extreme snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff potential (RP; snowmelt plus precipitation) decrease by 72%, 73%, and 45%, respectively, over the continental United States and southern Canada but increase by up to 8%, 53%, and 41% in Alaska and northern Canada by the late 21st century. In California and the Pacific Northwest, there is a notable increase in extreme RP by 21% contrary to a decrease in snowmelt by 31% by the late century. These regions could be vulnerable to larger rain‐on‐snow floods in a warmer climate. Regions with a large variability among RCM ensembles are identified, which require further investigation to reduce the regional uncertainties.},
doi = {10.1029/2021gl094985},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
number = 22,
volume = 48,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Nov 05 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Fri Nov 05 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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