Title: Increasing large wildfires over the western United States linked to diminishing sea ice in the Arctic

Journal Article · · Nature Communications
ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ;

Abstract The compound nature of large wildfires in combination with complex physical and biophysical processes affecting variations in hydroclimate and fuel conditions makes it difficult to directly connect wildfire changes over fire-prone regions like the western United States (U.S.) with anthropogenic climate change. Here we show that increasing large wildfires during autumn over the western U.S. are fueled by more fire-favorable weather associated with declines in Arctic sea ice during preceding months on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Our analysis (based on observations, climate model sensitivity experiments, and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations) demonstrates and explains the Arctic-driven teleconnection through regional circulation changes with the poleward-shifted polar jet stream and enhanced fire-favorable surface weather conditions. The fire weather changes driven by declining Arctic sea ice during the past four decades are of similar magnitude to other leading modes of climate variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that also influence fire weather in the western U.S.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1827453
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-156778; 6048; PII: 26232
Journal Information:
Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 12; ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English

References (60)

Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011: DENNISON ET. AL.; LARGE WILDFIRE TRENDS IN THE WESTERN US journal April 2014
Does ocean coupling matter for the northern extratropical response to projected Arctic sea ice loss?: COUPLED RESPONSE TO ARCTIC SEA ICE LOSS journal March 2016
Measuring the strength of ENSO events: How does 1997/98 rank? journal September 1998
On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps journal October 1985
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system journal April 2011
The impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream: Can it? Has it? Will it?: Impact of Arctic warming on the midlatitude jet-stream journal March 2015
Atmospheric impacts of Arctic sea-ice loss, 1979–2009: separating forced change from atmospheric internal variability journal June 2013
Global and regional analysis of climate and human drivers of wildfire journal August 2011
The health impacts and economic value of wildland fire episodes in the U.S.: 2008–2012 journal January 2018
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century journal January 2003
The 2007 sea ice minimum: Impacts on the Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in late autumn and early winter journal January 2010
Development of a REgion‐Specific Ecosystem Feedback Fire (RESFire) Model in the Community Earth System Model journal February 2019
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California journal August 2019
Global Fire Forecasts Using Both Large‐Scale Climate Indices and Local Meteorological Parameters journal August 2019
The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification journal April 2010
Learning to coexist with wildfire journal November 2014
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic journal October 2016
Lightning as a major driver of recent large fire years in North American boreal forests journal June 2017
Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013 journal July 2015
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather journal August 2014
Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall journal December 2017
The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation journal August 2018
Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather journal December 2019
Understanding and managing connected extreme events journal June 2020
Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon journal April 2021
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models journal February 2018
ERA5-based global meteorological wildfire danger maps journal July 2020
A typology of compound weather and climate events journal June 2020
Seasonal fire danger forecasts for the USA journal January 2005
Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA journal February 2012
Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests journal October 2016
Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States journal February 2017
Adapt to more wildfire in western North American forests as climate changes journal April 2017
Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States journal December 2017
Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk journal March 2018
Decreasing fire season precipitation increased recent western US forest wildfire activity journal August 2018
Warming enabled upslope advance in western US forest fires journal May 2021
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California journal August 2020
Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity journal August 2006
The Seasonal Atmospheric Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Late Twenty-First Century journal January 2010
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research journal September 2013
“The Stippling Shows Statistically Significant Grid Points”: How Research Results are Routinely Overstated and Overinterpreted, and What to Do about It journal December 2016
Precipitation Shifts over Western North America as a Result of Declining Arctic Sea Ice Cover: The Coupled System Response journal December 2005
MERRA: NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications journal July 2011
The Atmospheric Response to Three Decades of Observed Arctic Sea Ice Loss journal February 2013
Climate Change from 1850 to 2005 Simulated in CESM1(WACCM) journal October 2013
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 journal March 2014
Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations journal October 2020
Constraints on global fire activity vary across a resource gradient journal January 2011
The JRA-55 Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics journal January 2015
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Analysis (New Version 2.3) and a Review of 2017 Global Precipitation journal April 2018
Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States journal August 2017
Atmospheric teleconnection processes linking winter air stagnation and haze extremes in China with regional Arctic sea ice decline journal January 2020
Using CESM-RESFire to understand climate–fire–ecosystem interactions and the implications for decadal climate variability journal January 2020
The status and challenge of global fire modelling journal January 2016
The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions journal January 2017
The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6 journal January 2017
The Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) contribution to CMIP6: investigating the causes and consequences of polar amplification journal January 2019
Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization journal January 2016
Development of a Global Fire Weather Database journal January 2015

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
atmospheric dynamics
climate change
cryospheric science
natural hazards