Advances in prediction of tokamak experiments with theory-based models

Staebler, Gary M.; Knölker, M.; Snyder, Philip B.; Angioni, Clemente; Fable, Emiliano; Luda di Cortemiglia, Teobaldo; Bourdelle, Clarisse; Garcia, Jeronimo; Citrin, Jonathan; Marin, Michele; Kim, Hyun-Tae; Kinsey, Jon; Lee, Chan-Young; Na, Yong-Su; Park, Jin Myung; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Pablo; Wu, Muquan

doi:10.1088/1741-4326/ac1eaf

Title: Advances in prediction of tokamak experiments with theory-based models

Journal Article · 07 February 2022 · Nuclear Fusion

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1741-4326/ac1eaf · OSTI ID:1825535

^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[3]; Bourdelle, Clarisse ^[4];

^[4]; Citrin, Jonathan ^[5]; Marin, Michele ^[5]; Kim, Hyun-Tae ^[6]; Kinsey, Jon ^[7];

^[8]; Na, Yong-Su ^[8];

^[9];

^[10]; Wu, Muquan ^[11]

General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States); General Atomics
General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States)
Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics, Garching (Germany)
Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA), Saint-Paul-lez-Durance (France)
Dutch Institute for Fundamental Energy Research, Eindhoven (Netherlands)
UK Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), Culham (United Kingdom)
CompX, Del Mar, CA (United States)
Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). Plasma Science and Fusion Center
Shenzhen Univ. (China)

The successful validation of theory-based models of transport, MHD stability, heating and current drive, with tokamak measurements over the last 20 years, has laid the foundation for a new era where these models can be routinely used in a "predict first" approach to design and predict the outcomes of experiments on tokamaks today. The capability to predict the plasma confinement and core profiles with a quantified uncertainty, based on a multi-machine, international, database of experience, will provide confidence that a proposed discharge will remain within the operational limits of the tokamak. Developing this predictive capability for the first generation of burning plasma devices, beginning with ITER, and progressing to tokamak demonstration reactors, is a critical mission of fusion energy research. Major advances have been made implementing this predict first methodology on today's tokamaks. In this work, an overview of several of these recent advances will be presented, providing the integrated modeling foundations of the experimental successes. The first steps to include boundary plasmas, and tokamak control systems, have been made. A commitment to predicting experiments as part of the planning process is needed in order to collect predictive accuracy data and evolve the models and software into a robust whole discharge pulse design simulator.

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Research Organization:: General Atomics, San Diego, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0019736; FG02-95ER54309; FC02-04ER54698

OSTI ID:: 1825535

Journal Information:: Nuclear Fusion, Journal Name: Nuclear Fusion Journal Issue: 4 Vol. 62; ISSN 0029-5515

Publisher:: IOP ScienceCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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