Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States

Brunke, Michael A.; Welty, Joshua; Zeng, Xubin

doi:10.1029/2021MS002640

Title: Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States

Journal Article · 28 September 2021 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002640 · OSTI ID:1822959

^[1];

^[1]

Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Science The University of Arizona Tucson AZ USA

Abstract Snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature, and precipitation biases and trends are evaluated in the atmosphere‐land simulations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) in comparison to the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and two other models using the ground measurement‐based University of Arizona (UA) snow product. SWE, temperature, and precipitation biases are highest in magnitude in the Western contiguous United States (CONUS). SWE errors are attributed to temperature and precipitation through multiple linear regressions of normalized errors, the coefficients of which represent the sensitivities to temperature and precipitation errors. SWE errors are more sensitive to temperature errors throughout the CONUS. Model SWE and temperature trends are generally opposite from UA product trends in the Western CONUS. SWE trend errors are also attributed to temperature and precipitation trend errors using multiple linear regressions of normalized trend errors. SWE trend errors are more sensitive to those of precipitation at higher elevations (>1,500 m) in the Western CONUS in these simulations. Thus, the sensitivity to temperature and precipitation differ for SWE errors and its trend errors. Furthermore, the SWE trend errors are more sensitive to temperature and precipitation in the atmosphere‐ocean coupled simulations in which the atmosphere‐land is coupled to an active ocean model. These results suggest that both errors in simulated temperature and precipitation contribute to SWE errors.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: NONE; SC0016533

OSTI ID:: 1822959

Journal Information:: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Name: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 13; ISSN 1942-2466

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (60)

Coupling of winter climate transitions to snow and clouds over the Prairies: WINTER CLIMATE TRANSITIONS WITH SNOW Betts, Alan K.; Desjardins, Raymond; Worth, Devon Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JD021168	journal	February 2014
Effects of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability in the Central Rocky Mountains as a function of elevation Sospedra‐Alfonso, Reinel; Melton, Joe R.; Merryfield, William J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063898	journal	June 2015
Quantitative characterization of spurious numerical oscillations in 48 CMIP5 models: SPURIOUS NUMERICAL OSCILLATIONS IN CMIP5 Geil, Kerrie L.; Zeng, Xubin Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL063931	journal	June 2015
Linking snowfall and snow accumulation to generate spatial maps of SWE and snow depth Broxton, Patrick D.; Dawson, Nicholas; Zeng, Xubin Earth and Space Science, Vol. 3, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EA000174	journal	June 2016
Exploring a Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR-CESM: VR-CESM Simulation in the Rocky Mountains Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Lin, Zhaohui Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027008	journal	October 2017
Improving the Representation of Polar Snow and Firn in the Community Earth System Model: IMPROVING POLAR SNOW AND FIRN IN CESM van Kampenhout, Leonardus; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Lipscomb, William H. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 9, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS000988	journal	November 2017
Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States Daly, Christopher; Halbleib, Michael; Smith, Joseph I. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1688	journal	December 2008
Downscaling hydroclimatic changes over the Western US based on CAM subgrid scheme and WRF regional climate simulations Qian, Yun; Ghan, Steven J.; Leung, L. Ruby International Journal of Climatology https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1928	journal	January 2009
Evaluation of snow cover fraction for regional climate simulations in the Sierra Nevada: EVALUATION OF SNOW COVER FOR REGIONAL SIMULATIONS IN THE SIERRA NEVADA Wrzesien, Melissa L.; Pavelsky, Tamlin M.; Kapnick, Sarah B. International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 35, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4136	journal	September 2014
The contribution of snow condition trends to future ground climate Lawrence, David M.; Slater, Andrew G. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 34, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0537-4	journal	February 2009
Effect of snow cover on pan-Arctic permafrost thermal regimes Park, Hotaek; Fedorov, Alexander N.; Zheleznyak, Mikhail N. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2356-5	journal	October 2014
Insights into elevation-dependent warming in the Tibetan Plateau-Himalayas from CMIP5 model simulations Palazzi, Elisa; Filippi, Luca; von Hardenberg, Jost Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 11-12 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3316-z	journal	August 2016
The Arctic Amplification Debate Serreze, Mark C.; Francis, Jennifer A. Climatic Change, Vol. 76, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9017-y	journal	March 2006
Simulation of high-latitude hydrological processes in the Torne–Kalix basin: PILPS Phase 2(e) Bowling, Laura C.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Nijssen, Bart Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 38, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00003-1	journal	July 2003
A comparison of 1701 snow models using observations from an alpine site Essery, Richard; Morin, Samuel; Lejeune, Yves Advances in Water Resources, Vol. 55 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2012.07.013	journal	May 2013
Analysis of snow in the 20th and 21st century Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model simulations Déry, Stephen J.; Wood, Eric F. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue D19 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006920	journal	October 2006
Improving snow processes in the Noah land model Wang, Zhuo; Zeng, Xubin; Decker, Mark Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 115, Issue D20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD013761	journal	January 2010
Snow-atmosphere coupling strength in a global atmospheric model: SNOW-ATMOSPHERE COUPLING Xu, Li; Dirmeyer, Paul Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048049	journal	July 2011
Snowpack Change From 1982 to 2016 Over Conterminous United States Zeng, Xubin; Broxton, Patrick; Dawson, Nicholas Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079621	journal	December 2018
The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Overview and Evaluation at Standard Resolution Golaz, Jean‐Christophe; Caldwell, Peter M.; Van Roekel, Luke P. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001603	journal	July 2019
Uncertainties in Snowpack Simulations—Assessing the Impact of Model Structure, Parameter Choice, and Forcing Data Error on Point‐Scale Energy Balance Snow Model Performance Günther, Daniel; Marke, Thomas; Essery, Richard Water Resources Research, Vol. 55, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR023403	journal	April 2019
Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model Held, I. M.; Guo, H.; Adcroft, A. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001829	journal	November 2019
The DOE E3SM Coupled Model Version 1: Description and Results at High Resolution Caldwell, Peter M.; Mametjanov, Azamat; Tang, Qi Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001870	journal	December 2019
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J. ‐F.; Bacmeister, J. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916	journal	February 2020
GISS‐E2.1: Configurations and Climatology Kelley, Maxwell; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Nazarenko, Larissa S. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS002025	journal	August 2020
The Value of Long‐Term (40 years) Airborne Gamma Radiation SWE Record for Evaluating Three Observation‐Based Gridded SWE Data Sets by Seasonal Snow and Land Cover Classifications Cho, Eunsang; Jacobs, Jennifer M.; Vuyovich, Carrie M. Water Resources Research, Vol. 56, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR025813	journal	January 2020
Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback Schuur, E. A. G.; McGuire, A. D.; Schädel, C. Nature, Vol. 520, Issue 7546 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14338	journal	April 2015
Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world Working Group, Mountain Research Initiative EDW Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 5, p. 424-430 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563	journal	April 2015
Slower snowmelt in a warmer world Musselman, Keith N.; Clark, Martyn P.; Liu, Changhai Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3225	journal	February 2017
Radiative forcing and albedo feedback from the Northern Hemisphere cryosphere between 1979 and 2008 Flanner, M. G.; Shell, K. M.; Barlage, M. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1062	journal	January 2011
Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models Pithan, Felix; Mauritsen, Thorsten Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2071	journal	February 2014
Early snowmelt significantly enhances boreal springtime carbon uptake Pulliainen, Jouni; Aurela, Mika; Laurila, Tuomas Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 42 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1707889114	journal	October 2017
Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO ₂ and CH ₄ emissions Lawrence, D. M.; Koven, C. D.; Swenson, S. C. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094011	journal	September 2015
The Effect of Eurasian Snow Cover on the Indian Monsoon Vernekar, A. D.; Zhou, J.; Shukla, J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0248:TEOESC>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 1995
Representation of Topography in Spectral Climate Models and Its Effect on Simulated Precipitation Lindberg, Craig; Broccoli, Anthony J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1996)009<2641:ROTISC>2.0.CO;2	journal	November 1996
Coupling of the Common Land Model to the NCAR Community Climate Model Zeng, Xubin; Shaikh, Muhammad; Dai, Yongjiu Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<1832:COTCLM>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 2002
The Role of Surface Albedo Feedback in Climate Hall, Alex Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<1550:TROSAF>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2004
The Representation of Snow in Land Surface Schemes: Results from PILPS 2(d) Slater, A. G.; Schlosser, C. A.; Desborough, C. E. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1525-7541(2001)002<0007:TROSIL>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 2001
SNOWMIP2: An Evaluation of Forest Snow Process Simulations Essery, Richard; Rutter, Nick; Pomeroy, John Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 90, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2629.1	journal	August 2009
Changes in the Timing of Snowmelt and Streamflow in Colorado: A Response to Recent Warming Clow, David W. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1	journal	May 2010
The Global Land Data Assimilation System Rodell, M.; Houser, P. R.; Jambor, U. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 85, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-381	journal	March 2004
Scientific and Human Errors in a Snow Model Intercomparison Menard, Cecile B.; Essery, Richard; Krinner, Gerhard Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 102, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0329.1	journal	January 2021
Multidecadal Climate Variability and the “Warming Hole” in North America: Results from CMIP5 Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Climate Simulations* Kumar, Sanjiv; Kinter, James; Dirmeyer, Paul A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00535.1	journal	May 2013
Forced and Internal Components of Winter Air Temperature Trends over North America during the past 50 Years: Mechanisms and Implications Deser, Clara; Terray, Laurent; Phillips, Adam S. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1	journal	March 2016
Relation of Eurasian Snow Cover and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Importance of the Delayed Hydrological Effect Halder, Subhadeep; Dirmeyer, Paul A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0033.1	journal	February 2017
Changes toward Earlier Streamflow Timing across Western North America Stewart, Iris T.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3321.1	journal	April 2005
Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States Hamlet, Alan F.; Mote, Philip W.; Clark, Martyn P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3538.1	journal	November 2005
Present-Day Atmospheric Simulations Using GISS ModelE: Comparison to In Situ, Satellite, and Reanalysis Data Schmidt, Gavin A.; Ruedy, Reto; Hansen, James E. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3612.1	journal	January 2006
An Enhanced Model of Land Water and Energy for Global Hydrologic and Earth-System Studies Milly, P. C. D.; Malyshev, Sergey L.; Shevliakova, Elena Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 15, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-0162.1	journal	October 2014
Coupled Evaluation of Below- and Aboveground Energy and Water Cycle Variables from Reanalysis Products over Five Flux Tower Sites in the United States Lytle, William; Zeng, Xubin Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0224.1	journal	July 2016
Why Do Global Reanalyses and Land Data Assimilation Products Underestimate Snow Water Equivalent? Broxton, Patrick D.; Zeng, Xubin; Dawson, Nicholas Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 17, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0056.1	journal	November 2016
A New Snow Density Parameterization for Land Data Initialization Dawson, Nicholas; Broxton, Patrick; Zeng, Xubin Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 18, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-16-0166.1	journal	January 2017
Evaluation of Remotely Sensed Snow Water Equivalent and Snow Cover Extent over the Contiguous United States Dawson, Nicholas; Broxton, Patrick; Zeng, Xubin Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 19, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0007.1	journal	November 2018
Quantifying and Diagnosing Sources of Uncertainty in Midcentury Changes in North American Snowpack from NARCCAP McCrary, Rachel R.; Mearns, Linda O. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 20, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18-0248.1	journal	November 2019
Snow Mass over North America: Observations and Results from the Second Phase of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project Frei, Allan; Brown, Ross; Miller, James A. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 6, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM443.1	journal	October 2005
Validation of the energy budget of an alpine snowpack simulated by several snow models (Snow MIP project) Etchevers, Pierre; Martin, Eric; Brown, Ross Annals of Glaciology, Vol. 38 https://doi.org/10.3189/172756404781814825	journal	January 2004
LS3MIP (v1.0) contribution to CMIP6: the Land Surface, Snow and Soil moisture Model Intercomparison Project – aims, setup and expected outcome van den Hurk, Bart; Kim, Hyungjun; Krinner, Gerhard Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016	journal	January 2016
Observation and modelling of snow at a polygonal tundra permafrost site: spatial variability and thermal implications Gouttevin, Isabelle; Langer, Moritz; Löwe, Henning The Cryosphere, Vol. 12, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-3693-2018	journal	January 2018
Historical Northern Hemisphere snow cover trends and projected changes in the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble Mudryk, Lawrence; Santolaria-Otín, María; Krinner, Gerhard The Cryosphere, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2495-2020	journal	January 2020
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification Serreze, M. C.; Barrett, A. P.; Stroeve, J. C. The Cryosphere, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-3-11-2009	journal	January 2009

Similar Records

Evaluating the Water Cycle Over CONUS at the Watershed Scale for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) Across Resolutions

Journal Article · 2023 · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · OSTI ID:2222518

Harrop, Bryce E.; Balaguru, Karthik; Golaz, Jean‐Christophe; +10 more

Improvement of snowpack simulations in a regional climate model

Journal Article · 2011 · Hydrological Processes · OSTI ID:1051630

Jin, J; Miller, N L

Ocean Surface Flux Algorithm Effects on Earth System Model Energy and Water Cycles

Journal Article · 2021 · Frontiers in Marine Science · OSTI ID:1781234

Reeves Eyre, J. E. Jack; Zeng, Xubin; Zhang, Kai

Title: Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States

Citation Formats

References (60)

Similar Records

Related Subjects