Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability
Abstract
Agricultural production is highly sensitive to changes in climate and weather patterns. The focus of the great majority of studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture has been on mean changes in agricultural responses. However, the manner in which global agricultural markets respond to the interannual variability of the climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is magnified further by endogenous market fluctuations. We demonstrate the importance of imperfect versus perfect expectations of market and weather in generating the market fluctuations that play a key role in transferring the interannual variations to markets. We find that the volatility of market prices and consumption could be potentially reduced on average by 55% and 41%, respectively, with improved expectations, where agricultural producers make better decisions to adapt to climate and biophysical variability. We also find much heterogeneity in interannual variability across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by trade as part of the economic response. Our study provides new insights on climate impacts on agricultural market variability and lays a foundation for further investigating the full range of climate impacts on biophysical and humanmore »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1825116
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1821930; OSTI ID: 1827828
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-150812
Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 16 Journal Issue: 10; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; interannual variability; climate impact; adaptation; agriculture; imperfect foresight; GCAM
Citation Formats
Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., and Edmonds, James A. Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability. United Kingdom: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965.
Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., & Edmonds, James A. Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965
Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., Patel, Pralit L., Snyder, Abigail C., Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Hejazi, Mohamad I., and Edmonds, James A. Fri .
"Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965.
@article{osti_1825116,
title = {Global agricultural responses to interannual climate and biophysical variability},
author = {Zhao, Xin and Calvin, Katherine V. and Wise, Marshall A. and Patel, Pralit L. and Snyder, Abigail C. and Waldhoff, Stephanie T. and Hejazi, Mohamad I. and Edmonds, James A.},
abstractNote = {Agricultural production is highly sensitive to changes in climate and weather patterns. The focus of the great majority of studies assessing climate impacts on agriculture has been on mean changes in agricultural responses. However, the manner in which global agricultural markets respond to the interannual variability of the climate and biophysical shocks is poorly understood. Here we show a strong transmission of interannual variations in climate-induced biophysical yield shocks to agriculture markets, which is magnified further by endogenous market fluctuations. We demonstrate the importance of imperfect versus perfect expectations of market and weather in generating the market fluctuations that play a key role in transferring the interannual variations to markets. We find that the volatility of market prices and consumption could be potentially reduced on average by 55% and 41%, respectively, with improved expectations, where agricultural producers make better decisions to adapt to climate and biophysical variability. We also find much heterogeneity in interannual variability across crops and regions, which is considerably mediated by trade as part of the economic response. Our study provides new insights on climate impacts on agricultural market variability and lays a foundation for further investigating the full range of climate impacts on biophysical and human systems.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ac2965},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 10,
volume = 16,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Fri Oct 08 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Fri Oct 08 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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