Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Ralston Fonseca, Francisco; Craig, Michael; Jaramillo, Paulina; Bergés, Mario; Severnini, Edson; Loew, Aviva; Zhai, Haibo; Cheng, Yifan; Nijssen, Bart; Voisin, Nathalie; Yearsley, John

doi:10.1021/acs.est.1c01334

Title: Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

Journal Article · 02 August 2021 · Environmental Science and Technology

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c01334 · OSTI ID:1821890

^[1];

^[2]; Jaramillo, Paulina ^[1]; Bergés, Mario ^[1]; Severnini, Edson ^[1]; Loew, Aviva ^[1];

^[3]; Cheng, Yifan ^[4]; Nijssen, Bart ^[4];

^[5];

^[4]

Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Electricity grid planners design the system in order to supply electricity to end users reliably and affordably. Climate change threatens both objectives through potentially compounding supply- and demand-side climate-induced impacts. Uncertainty surrounds each of these future potential impacts. Given long planning horizons, system planners must weigh investment costs against operational costs under this uncertainty. Here, we developed a comprehensive and coherent integrated modeling framework combining physically-based models with cost-minimizing optimization models in the power system. We applied this modeling framework to analyze potential tradeoffs in planning and operating costs in the power grid due to climate change in the Southeast U.S. in 2050. We find that planning decisions that do not account for climate-induced impacts would result in a substantial increase in social costs associated with loss of load. These social costs are a result of under-investment in new capacity and capacity deratings of thermal generators when we included climate change impacts in the operation stage. Finally, these results highlight the importance of including climate change effects in the planning process.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1821890

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--164744

Journal Information:: Environmental Science and Technology, Journal Name: Environmental Science and Technology Journal Issue: 16 Vol. 55; ISSN 0013-936X

Publisher:: American Chemical Society (ACS)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
climate change
climate impacts
climate mitigation
energy economics
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Title: Climate-Induced Tradeoffs in Planning and Operating Costs of a Regional Electricity System

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