Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States
Abstract
Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences inmore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[2]
- Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1820852
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Hydrology
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 8; Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2306-5338
- Publisher:
- MDPI
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; drought assessment; PDSI; USA; downscaled climate data; spatial temporal
Citation Formats
Kotikot, Susan M., and Omitaomu, Olufemi A. Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.3390/hydrology8030136.
Kotikot, Susan M., & Omitaomu, Olufemi A. Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States. United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030136
Kotikot, Susan M., and Omitaomu, Olufemi A. Wed .
"Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States". United States. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology8030136. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1820852.
@article{osti_1820852,
title = {Spatial–Temporal Patterns of Historical, Near-Term, and Projected Drought in the Conterminous United States},
author = {Kotikot, Susan M. and Omitaomu, Olufemi A.},
abstractNote = {Major droughts in the United States have heavily impacted the hydrologic system, negatively effecting energy and food production. Improved understanding of historical drought is critical for accurate forecasts. Data from global climate models (GCMs), commonly used to assess drought, cannot effectively evaluate local patterns because of their low spatial scale. This research leverages downscaled (~4 km grid spacing) temperature and precipitation estimates from nine GCMs’ data under the business-as-usual scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) to examine drought patterns. Drought severity is estimated using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) with the Thornthwaite evapotranspiration method. The specific objectives were (1) To reproduce historical (1966–2005) drought and calculate near-term to future (2011–2050) drought patterns over the conterminous USA. (2) To uncover the local variability of spatial drought patterns in California between 2012 and 2018 using a network-based approach. Our estimates of land proportions affected by drought agree with the known historical drought events of the mid-1960s, late 1970s to early 1980s, early 2000s, and between 2012 and 2015. Network analysis showed heterogeneity in spatial drought patterns in California, indicating local variability of drought occurrence. The high spatial scale at which the analysis was performed allowed us to uncover significant local differences in drought patterns. This is critical for highlighting possible weak systems that could inform adaptation strategies such as in the energy and agricultural sectors.},
doi = {10.3390/hydrology8030136},
journal = {Hydrology},
number = 3,
volume = 8,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 08 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Wed Sep 08 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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