Detecting Climate Teleconnections With Granger Causality

Silva, Filipi N.; Vega‐Oliveros, Didier A.; Yan, Xiaoran; Flammini, Alessandro; Menczer, Filippo; Radicchi, Filippo; Kravitz, Ben; Fortunato, Santo

doi:10.1029/2021GL094707

Title: Detecting Climate Teleconnections With Granger Causality

Journal Article · 14 September 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094707 · OSTI ID:1820190

^[1];

^[2]; Yan, Xiaoran ^[3]; Flammini, Alessandro ^[4];

^[5]; Radicchi, Filippo ^[4];

^[6];

^[5]

Indiana University Network Science Institute (IUNI) Bloomington IN USA
Institute of Computing University of Campinas Campinas SP Brazil, Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington IN USA
Artificial Intelligence Research Institute Zhejiang Lab Zhejiang China
Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington IN USA
Indiana University Network Science Institute (IUNI) Bloomington IN USA, Center for Complex Networks and Systems Research Luddy School of Informatics, Computing, and Engineering Indiana University Bloomington IN USA
Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Indiana University Bloomington IN USA, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Richland WA USA

Abstract Climate system teleconnections are crucial for improving climate predictability, but difficult to quantify. Standard approaches to identify teleconnections are often based on correlations between time series. Here we present a novel method leveraging Granger causality, which can infer/detect relationships between any two fields. We compare teleconnections identified by correlation and Granger causality at different timescales. We find that both Granger causality and correlation consistently recover known seasonal precipitation responses to the sea surface temperature pattern associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Such findings are robust across multiple time resolutions. In addition, we identify candidates for unexplored teleconnection responses.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1820190

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 18 Vol. 48; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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