How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?
Abstract
The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$$\$$300$ × 109, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.
- Authors:
-
[1];
[1];
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- International Emissions Trading Association, Geneva (Switzerland)
- Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA (United States)
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- International Emissions Trading Association, Geneva (Switzerland); Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1819688
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-162547
Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climate Change Economics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 02; Journal ID: ISSN 2010-0078
- Publisher:
- World Scientific
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Article 6; Paris agreement; Market mechanisms; Emissions trading; NDC; Enhanced ambition
Citation Formats
Edmonds, James, Yu, Sha, McJeon, Haewon C., Forrister, Dirk, Aldy, Joseph, Hultman, Nathan, Cui, Ryna, Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Clarke, Leon, Clara, Stefano de, and Munnings, Clayton. How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1142/s201000782150007x.
Edmonds, James, Yu, Sha, McJeon, Haewon C., Forrister, Dirk, Aldy, Joseph, Hultman, Nathan, Cui, Ryna, Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Clarke, Leon, Clara, Stefano de, & Munnings, Clayton. How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?. United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/s201000782150007x
Edmonds, James, Yu, Sha, McJeon, Haewon C., Forrister, Dirk, Aldy, Joseph, Hultman, Nathan, Cui, Ryna, Waldhoff, Stephanie T., Clarke, Leon, Clara, Stefano de, and Munnings, Clayton. Mon .
"How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?". United States. https://doi.org/10.1142/s201000782150007x. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1819688.
@article{osti_1819688,
title = {How Much Could Article 6 Enhance Nationally Determined Contribution Ambition Toward Paris Agreement Goals Through Economic Efficiency?},
author = {Edmonds, James and Yu, Sha and McJeon, Haewon C. and Forrister, Dirk and Aldy, Joseph and Hultman, Nathan and Cui, Ryna and Waldhoff, Stephanie T. and Clarke, Leon and Clara, Stefano de and Munnings, Clayton},
abstractNote = {The Paris Agreement of 2015 uses Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to achieve its goal to limit climate change to well below 2°C. Article 6 allows countries to cooperatively implement NDCs provided they do not double-count mitigation. We estimate that economic efficiency gains from cooperative implementation of existing NDC goals using Article 6 could reduce the cost of achieving NDC goals in 2030 to all parties by ~$\$300$ × 109, which if reinvested in additional emissions mitigation could add 9 billion tons CO2/year mitigation, beyond the 8 billion tons CO2/year currently pledged in 2030. We estimate that more than half of the 2030 gains could come from nature-based measures, but long-term potential for nature-based measures is more limited. How much or even if this economic potential can be realized is uncertain and will depend on both the rules and their implementation.},
doi = {10.1142/s201000782150007x},
journal = {Climate Change Economics},
number = 02,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jun 28 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Mon Jun 28 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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