Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Marvel, Kate; Cook, Benjamin I.; Bonfils, Céline; Smerdon, Jason E.; Williams, A. Park; Liu, Haibo

doi:10.1029/2021EF002019

Title: Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Journal Article · 28 August 2021 · Earth's Future

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002019 · OSTI ID:1817806

^[1]; Cook, Benjamin I. ^[2]; Bonfils, Céline ^[3];

^[4];

^[5];

^[4]

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA, Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University New York NY USA
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies New York NY USA
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades NY USA
Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades NY USA, Now at Department of Geography University of California, Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA

Abstract Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long‐term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest‐forcing scenario.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344; SC0014423

OSTI ID:: 1817806

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-819174; e2021EF002019

Journal Information:: Earth's Future, Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Issue: 9 Vol. 9; ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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