Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations
Abstract
The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in themore »
- Authors:
-
[1];
[4];
- International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy)
- Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
- Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy); Istituto di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Trieste (Italy)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; HPC-TRES
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1817603
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-00OR22725; 2015-07
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climate Dynamics
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 57; Journal Issue: 5-6; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
- Publisher:
- Springer-Verlag
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; regional climate model; CORDEX-CORE; tropical cyclones; climate change
Citation Formats
Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Glazer, Russell, Giorgi, Filippo, Coppola, Erika, Gao, Xuejie, Hodges, Kevin I., Das, Sushant, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Reale, Marco, and Sines, Taleena. Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6.
Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Glazer, Russell, Giorgi, Filippo, Coppola, Erika, Gao, Xuejie, Hodges, Kevin I., Das, Sushant, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Reale, Marco, & Sines, Taleena. Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6
Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Glazer, Russell, Giorgi, Filippo, Coppola, Erika, Gao, Xuejie, Hodges, Kevin I., Das, Sushant, Ashfaq, Moetasim, Reale, Marco, and Sines, Taleena. Tue .
"Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1817603.
@article{osti_1817603,
title = {Future projections in tropical cyclone activity over multiple CORDEX domains from RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE simulations},
author = {Torres-Alavez, José Abraham and Glazer, Russell and Giorgi, Filippo and Coppola, Erika and Gao, Xuejie and Hodges, Kevin I. and Das, Sushant and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Reale, Marco and Sines, Taleena},
abstractNote = {The characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over five TC basins lying within four Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains are examined for present and future climate conditions using a new ensemble of simulations completed as part of the CORDEX-CORE initiative with the regional climate model RegCM4. The simulations are conducted at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing and are driven by three CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The RegCM4 captures most features of the observed TC climatology, except for the TC intensity, which is thus statistically adjusted using a bias correction procedure to account for the effect of the coarse model resolution. The RegCM4 exhibits an improved simulation of several TC statistics compared to the driving GCMs, over most basins analyzed. In future climate conditions we find significant increases in TC frequency over the North Indian Ocean, the Northwest Pacific and Eastern Pacific regions, which are consistent with an increase in mid-tropospheric relative humidity. The North Atlantic and Australasia regions show a decrease in TC frequency, mostly associated with an increase in wind shear. We also find a consistent increase in future storm rainfall rates associated with TCs and in the frequency of the most intense TCs over most domains. Finally, our study shows robust responses often, but not always, in line with previous studies, still implying the presence of significant uncertainties in the projection of TC characteristics, which need to be addressed using large ensembles of simulations with high-resolution models.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-021-05728-6},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = 5-6,
volume = 57,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Apr 06 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Tue Apr 06 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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