The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model

Zhao, Xin; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Iyer, Gokul

doi:10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007

Title: The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model

Abstract

The representations of international trade and global market integration play central roles in long-term global agricultural economic modeling. However, the conventional use of the gravity models (i.e., the Armington approach) of trade may not adequately account for the dynamic process of market integration. In this paper, we generalize a logit-based Armington approach by permitting home preference bias erosion to account for a trend of global market integration. We build a simple agricultural economic equilibrium model and conduct hindcast experiments to examine the historical trend of market integration. The results show a significant integrating trend of the global agricultural market implied by converging Armington preference distributions (i.e., home bias erosion) in 1995 – 2015, with a half-life of 45 years. We demonstrate important implications of allowing the dynamic trend of market integration implied by bias erosion on estimating trade elasticities. By testing the future market integration trend implied by historical home bias integration in GCAM, we show a high sensitivity of long-term agroeconomic projections to future trade and market integration scenarios.

Authors:

;

; Wise, Marshall A.;

Publication Date:: Wed Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2021

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

OSTI Identifier:: 1819207

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1815077; OSTI ID: 1819949

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-158709
Journal ID: ISSN 0313-5926; S0313592621000990; PII: S0313592621000990

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Economic Analysis and Policy

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Economic Analysis and Policy Journal Volume: 72 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0313-5926

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: Australia

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY; hindcast validation; home bias erosion; market integration; Armington; agricultural trade

Citation Formats


                    Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., and Iyer, Gokul. The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model.  Australia: N. p., 2021. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007.

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                    Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., & Iyer, Gokul. The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model.  Australia.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007

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                    Zhao, Xin, Calvin, Katherine V., Wise, Marshall A., and Iyer, Gokul. Wed .  
"The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model".  Australia.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007.

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@article{osti_1819207,

  title        = {The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model},

  author       = {Zhao, Xin and Calvin, Katherine V. and Wise, Marshall A. and Iyer, Gokul},

  abstractNote = {The representations of international trade and global market integration play central roles in long-term global agricultural economic modeling. However, the conventional use of the gravity models (i.e., the Armington approach) of trade may not adequately account for the dynamic process of market integration. In this paper, we generalize a logit-based Armington approach by permitting home preference bias erosion to account for a trend of global market integration. We build a simple agricultural economic equilibrium model and conduct hindcast experiments to examine the historical trend of market integration. The results show a significant integrating trend of the global agricultural market implied by converging Armington preference distributions (i.e., home bias erosion) in 1995 – 2015, with a half-life of 45 years. We demonstrate important implications of allowing the dynamic trend of market integration implied by bias erosion on estimating trade elasticities. By testing the future market integration trend implied by historical home bias integration in GCAM, we show a high sensitivity of long-term agroeconomic projections to future trade and market integration scenarios.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.eap.2021.07.007},

  journal      = {Economic Analysis and Policy},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 72,

  place        = {Australia},

  year         = {Wed Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2021},

  month        = {Wed Dec 01 00:00:00 EST 2021}

}

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Title: The role of global agricultural market integration in multiregional economic modeling: Using hindcast experiments to validate an Armington model

Abstract

Citation Formats

The law of one price and the modelling of disaggregated trade flows journal, October 1986

Distant Thunder: The Creation of a World Market in Rice and the Transformations It Wrought journal, October 1993

Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias journal, November 2020

Market integration dynamics and asymptotic price convergence in distribution journal, January 2016

Logit, CES, and rational inattention journal, January 2020

The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality journal, January 2017

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon journal, November 2017

Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system journal, December 2013

The transmission of import prices to domestic prices: an application to Indonesia journal, June 2008

Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans journal, April 2015

The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy–environment–economy CGE model journal, November 2009

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM journal, August 2020

Testing the law of one price when trade takes time journal, March 1990

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways journal, January 2020

Uncertainty from Model Calibration: Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling journal, August 2009

Characterising non-tariff trade policy journal, September 2021

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways journal, January 2017

The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change journal, March 2021

Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change journal, September 2018

Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model journal, November 2013

Trade Costs journal, August 2004

GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems journal, January 2019

Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use journal, August 2013

Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model journal, September 2004

Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach journal, May 2002

Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models journal, January 2020

Technology, Geography, and Trade journal, September 2002

Effects of the agricultural commodity and the food price volatility on economic integration: an empirical assessment journal, December 2017

Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA journal, November 2014

A Hindcast Experiment Using the gcam 3.0 Agriculture and Land-Use Module journal, February 2017

Global energy model hindcasting journal, November 2016

Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography journal, October 2001

An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base journal, May 2016

Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change journal, December 2013

Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy journal, July 2015

An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy journal, February 1995

Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs journal, March 2011

Validating energy-oriented CGE models journal, September 2011

Comparison of deep integration in the Melitz, Krugman and Armington models: The case of The Philippines in RCEP journal, February 2020

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The Critical role of Conversion cost and Comparative Advantage in Modeling Agricultural land use Change journal, February 2020

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Review of modifications to indirect land use change modeling and resulting carbon intensity values within the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard regulations journal, April 2018

A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une theorie de la demande de produits differencies d'apres leur origine) (Una teoria de la demanda de productos distinguiendolos segun el lugar de produccion) journal, March 1969

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Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison journal, December 2013

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Attaining food and environmental security in an era of globalization journal, November 2016

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements? journal, July 2007

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree journal, December 2013

Some pitfalls in testing the law of one price in commodity markets journal, October 2008

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview journal, January 2017

Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market journal, April 1993

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways journal, July 2021

Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture? journal, June 2019

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module journal, January 2017

Preferences and the home bias in trade journal, July 2016

The law of one price and the modelling of disaggregated trade flows
journal, October 1986

Distant Thunder: The Creation of a World Market in Rice and the Transformations It Wrought
journal, October 1993

Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias
journal, November 2020

Market integration dynamics and asymptotic price convergence in distribution
journal, January 2016

Logit, CES, and rational inattention
journal, January 2020

The SSP4: A world of deepening inequality
journal, January 2017

New science of climate change impacts on agriculture implies higher social cost of carbon
journal, November 2017

Comparing supply-side specifications in models of global agriculture and the food system
journal, December 2013

The transmission of import prices to domestic prices: an application to Indonesia
journal, June 2008

Worldwide Acreage and Yield Response to International Price Change and Volatility: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis for Wheat, Rice, Corn, and Soybeans
journal, April 2015

The resilience of the Indian economy to rising oil prices as a validation test for a global energy–environment–economy CGE model
journal, November 2009

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM
journal, August 2020

Testing the law of one price when trade takes time
journal, March 1990

Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2020

Uncertainty from Model Calibration: Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling
journal, August 2009

Characterising non-tariff trade policy
journal, September 2021

Long-term economic growth projections in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2017

The crucial role of domestic and international market-mediated adaptation to climate change
journal, March 2021

Economic shifts in agricultural production and trade due to climate change
journal, September 2018

Model evaluation and hindcasting: An experiment with an integrated assessment model
journal, November 2013

Trade Costs
journal, August 2004

GCAM v5.1: representing the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems
journal, January 2019

Looking back to move forward on model validation: insights from a global model of agricultural land use
journal, August 2013

Parameter Estimation and Measures of Fit in A Global, General Equilibrium Model
journal, September 2004

Parameter estimation for a computable general equilibrium model: a maximum entropy approach
journal, May 2002

Improving the way land use change is handled in economic models
journal, January 2020

Technology, Geography, and Trade
journal, September 2002

Effects of the agricultural commodity and the food price volatility on economic integration: an empirical assessment
journal, December 2017

Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA
journal, November 2014

A Hindcast Experiment Using the gcam 3.0 Agriculture and Land-Use Module
journal, February 2017

Global energy model hindcasting
journal, November 2016

Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography
journal, October 2001

An Overview of the GTAP 9 Data Base
journal, May 2016

Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change
journal, December 2013

Non-tariff barriers, integration and the transatlantic economy
journal, July 2015

An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy
journal, February 1995

Trade booms, trade busts, and trade costs
journal, March 2011

Validating energy-oriented CGE models
journal, September 2011

Comparison of deep integration in the Melitz, Krugman and Armington models: The case of The Philippines in RCEP
journal, February 2020

Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks
journal, December 2013

The Critical role of Conversion cost and Comparative Advantage in Modeling Agricultural land use Change
journal, February 2020

Validation of an R&D-based computable general equilibrium model
journal, October 2014

Review of modifications to indirect land use change modeling and resulting carbon intensity values within the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard regulations
journal, April 2018

A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production (Une theorie de la demande de produits differencies d'apres leur origine) (Una teoria de la demanda de productos distinguiendolos segun el lugar de produccion)
journal, March 1969

Home and regional biases and border effects in Armington type models
journal, March 2009

gcamdata: An R Package for Preparation, Synthesis, and Tracking of Input Data for the GCAM Integrated Human-Earth Systems Model
journal, January 2019

Modelling heterogeneous firms and non-tariff measures in free trade agreements using Computable General Equilibrium
journal, June 2018

The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century
journal, January 2017

SSP3: AIM implementation of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
journal, January 2017

Armington Meets Melitz: Introducing Firm Heterogeneity in a Global CGE Model of Trade
journal, September 2008

Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison
journal, December 2013

Economic and Physical Modeling of land use in gcam 3.0 and an Application to Agricultural Productivity, Land, and Terrestrial Carbon
journal, May 2014

Attaining food and environmental security in an era of globalization
journal, November 2016

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?
journal, July 2007

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree
journal, December 2013

Some pitfalls in testing the law of one price in commodity markets
journal, October 2008

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview
journal, January 2017

Modelling energy technologies in a competitive market
journal, April 1993

Estimating induced land use change emissions for sustainable aviation biofuel pathways
journal, July 2021

Is there a role for trade liberalization in mitigating the impacts of climate change on agriculture?
journal, June 2019

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module
journal, January 2017

Preferences and the home bias in trade
journal, July 2016