The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences

Smith, Andrew W.; Forsyth, Colin; Rae, Jonathan; Rodger, Craig J.; Freeman, Mervyn P.

doi:10.1029/2021SW002764

Title: The Impact of Sudden Commencements on Ground Magnetic Field Variability: Immediate and Delayed Consequences

Journal Article · 08 July 2021 · Space Weather (Online)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021SW002764 · OSTI ID:1806391

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Mullard Space Science Laboratory UCL Dorking Surrey UK
Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
Department of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New Zealand
British Antarctic Survey Cambridge UK

Abstract We examine how Sudden Commencements (SCs) and Storm Sudden Commencements (SSCs) influence the occurrence of high rates of change of the magnetic field ( R ) as a function of geomagnetic latitude. These rapid, high amplitude variations in the ground‐level geomagnetic field pose a significant risk to ground infrastructure, such as power networks, as the drivers of geomagnetically induced currents. We find that rates of change of ∼30 nT min ⁻¹ at near‐equatorial stations are up to 700 times more likely in an SC than in any random interval. This factor decreases with geomagnetic latitude such that rates of change around 30 nT min ⁻¹ are only up to 10 times more likely by 65°. At equatorial latitudes we find that 25% of all R in excess of 50 nT min ⁻¹ occurs during SCs. This percentage also decreases with geomagnetic latitude, reaching ≤1% by 55°. However, the time period from the SC to 3 days afterward accounts for ≥90% of geomagnetic field fluctuations over 50 nT min ⁻¹ , up to ∼60° latitude. Above 60°, other phenomena such as isolated substorms account for the majority of large R . Furthermore, the elevated rates of change observed during and after SCs are solely due to those classified as SSCs. These results show that SSCs are the predominant risk events for large R at mid and low latitudes, but that the risk from the SC itself decreases with latitude.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1806391

Journal Information:: Space Weather (Online), Journal Name: Space Weather (Online) Journal Issue: 7 Vol. 19; ISSN 1542-7390

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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