Title: North American Winter Dipole: Observed and Simulated Changes in Circulations

Journal Article · · Atmosphere (Basel)
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [1];  [1];  [2]
  1. Utah State Univ., Logan, UT (United States). Utah Climate Center
  2. Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology (Korea). School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Engineering
+ Show Author Affiliations

In recent years, a pair of large-scale circulation patterns consisting of an anomalous ridge over northwestern North America and trough over northeastern North America was found to accompany extreme winter weather events such as the 2013–2015 California drought and eastern U.S. cold outbreaks. Referred to as the North American winter dipole (NAWD), previous studies have found both a marked natural variability and a warming-induced amplification trend in the NAWD. In this study, we utilized multiple global reanalysis datasets and existing climate model simulations to examine the variability of the winter planetary wave patterns over North America and to better understand how it is likely to change in the future. We compared between pre- and post-1980 periods to identify changes to the circulation variations based on empirical analysis. It was found that the leading pattern of the winter planetary waves has changed, from the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode to a spatially shifted mode such as NAWD. Further, the potential influence of global warming on NAWD was examined using multiple climate model simulations.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Davis, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016605
OSTI ID:
1803076
Journal Information:
Atmosphere (Basel), Journal Name: Atmosphere (Basel) Journal Issue: 12 Vol. 10; ISSN 2073-4433; ISSN ATMOCZ
Publisher:
MDPICopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (35)

Probable causes of the abnormal ridge accompanying the 2013-2014 California drought: ENSO precursor and anthropogenic warming footprint: DIAGNOSING CALIFORNIA DROUGHT 2013-14 journal May 2014
Compounding effects of warm sea surface temperature and reduced sea ice on the extreme circulation over the extratropical North Pacific and North America during the 2013–2014 boreal winter journal March 2015
Pacific sea surface temperature and the winter of 2014: SST and 2014 Winter journal March 2015
Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific: 2014 WARM ANOMALY IN THE NE PACIFIC journal May 2015
Optimal precursors of different types of ENSO events: Optimal Precursors of ENSO Events journal November 2015
Recent amplification of the North American winter temperature dipole: TRENDS IN NORTH AMERICAN DIPOLE EXTREMES journal September 2016
The North American winter ‘dipole’ and extremes activity: a CMIP5 assessment: Amplification of North American dipole journal February 2015
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system journal April 2011
Impact of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on North Pacific climate variability: IMPACT ON NORTH PACIFIC VARIABILITY journal December 2007
Recent radical shifts of atmospheric circulations and rapid changes in Arctic climate system journal January 2008
ENSO prediction one year in advance using western North Pacific sea surface temperatures: PREDICTING ENSO BY NW PACIFIC SST journal March 2012
Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes: ARCTIC LINKS TO MID-LATITUDE WEATHER journal March 2012
Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave journal July 2016
Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic journal October 2016
California from drought to deluge journal June 2017
Increasing water cycle extremes in California and in relation to ENSO cycle under global warming journal October 2015
Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California journal April 2018
Strengthening North Pacific Influences on United States Temperature Variability journal March 2017
Tree-ring isotopes adjacent to Lake Superior reveal cold winter anomalies for the Great Lakes region of North America journal March 2019
‘The Blob’ invades Pacific, flummoxing climate experts journal April 2015
Extreme Precipitation Events in the Western United States Related to Tropical Forcing journal February 2000
A Formulation of a Phase-Independent Wave-Activity Flux for Stationary and Migratory Quasigeostrophic Eddies on a Zonally Varying Basic Flow journal March 2001
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project journal March 1996
Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation journal April 1981
Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions journal July 1982
Diabatic and Orographic Forcing of Northern Winter Stationary Waves and Storm Tracks journal February 2009
The Continuum of North Pacific Sea Level Pressure Patterns: Intraseasonal, Interannual, and Interdecadal Variability journal February 2010
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability journal August 2015
Are Greenhouse Gases Changing ENSO Precursors in the Western North Pacific? journal September 2013
Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and Intercomparisons journal February 2015
Global Warming–Induced Changes in El Niño Teleconnections over the North Pacific and North America journal December 2014
ERA-20C: An Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Twentieth Century journal June 2016
The ERA-40 re-analysis journal October 2005
Late-Quaternary Vegetation Dynamics in North America: Scaling from taxa to Biomes journal May 2004
Data Mining Climate Variability as an Indicator of U.S. Natural Gas journal June 2019

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
North American winter dipole
PNA
climate variability