Search Menu
DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
Search Scholarly Publications

Title: Projected Changes to Extreme Precipitation Along North American West Coast From the CESM Large Ensemble

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
 [1];  [2];  [2]
  1. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences; OSTI
  2. Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
+ Show Author Affiliations

Precipitation events along the North American (NA) west coast are strongly modulated by atmospheric rivers, yet the mechanisms of their influences on the probability distributions of precipitation events are not well studied. Simulations from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble under global warming are investigated using a moisture budget conditioned onto precipitation events for the recurrence intervals ranging from 0.1 to 50 years. In the midlatitudes, the increases in precipitation intensity and accumulation for all events over the NA west coast are predominantly controlled by moisture increases. In contrast, changes in the subtropical precipitation distributions in southwestern NA are associated with moisture increases and duration decreases for all events, with additional dynamical amplification for the heaviest precipitation events. These interpretations from the conditional moisture budget are more consistent with future projection of atmospheric rivers than the conventional mean and transient decomposition of the moisture budget.

Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016117
OSTI ID:
1802836
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 47; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (26)

Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America journal September 2015
A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations: ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE journal February 2016
An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5: NORTH PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IN CMIP5 journal November 2015
Dynamic and thermodynamic changes in mean and extreme precipitation under changed climate: MEAN AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION CHANGES journal September 2005
Flooding on California's Russian River: Role of atmospheric rivers journal January 2006
Atmospheric rivers induced heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. simulated by the WRF regional climate model: ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, PRECIPITATION, FLOOD journal February 2009
On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes journal October 2018
Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation journal May 2017
Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers journal February 2017
Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity journal April 2018
Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity journal September 2018
Mechanisms of Global Warming Impacts on Regional Tropical Precipitation* journal July 2004
The Sensitivity of Precipitation and Snowpack Simulations to Model Resolution via Nesting in Regions of Complex Terrain journal December 2003
Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A Comparison between Observations, Reanalysis Data, and Regional Models journal April 2011
Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global Warming journal October 2011
The Changing Character of Precipitation journal September 2003
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability journal August 2015
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Hydrological Cycle Intensification over the Full Probability Distribution of Precipitation Events journal February 2019
Diagnostic Computation of Moisture Budgets in the ERA-Interim Reanalysis with Reference to Analysis of CMIP-Archived Atmospheric Model Data journal October 2013
Dynamical and Thermodynamical Causes of Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle over North America in Response to Global Warming journal October 2014
Mechanism of Future Spring Drying in the Southwestern United States in CMIP5 Models journal June 2018
Roles of SST versus Internal Atmospheric Variability in Winter Extreme Precipitation Variability along the U.S. West Coast journal October 2018
Thermodynamic versus Dynamic Controls on Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble journal February 2019
Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble: The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration journal September 2019
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming journal November 2006
Changes in Winter Atmospheric Rivers along the North American West Coast in CMIP5 Climate Models journal February 2015

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
extreme precipitation
hydrological cycle