Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Dullo, Tigstu T.; Darkwah, George K.; Gangrade, Sudershan; Morales-Hernández, Mario; Sharif, M. Bulbul; Kalyanapu, Alfred J.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ghafoor, Sheikh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

doi:10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021

Title: Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract

Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.

Authors:

Dullo, Tigstu T.;

;

; Sharif, M. Bulbul;

;

; Ghafoor, Sheikh;

Publication Date:: Wed Jun 02 00:00:00 EDT 2021

Research Org.:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE

OSTI Identifier:: 1785582

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1797678

Grant/Contract Number:: 4000164401; AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online)

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online) Journal Volume: 21 Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 1684-9981

Publisher:: Copernicus GmbH

Country of Publication:: Germany

Language:: English

Subject:: 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats


                    Dullo, Tigstu T., Darkwah, George K., Gangrade, Sudershan, Morales-Hernández, Mario, Sharif, M. Bulbul, Kalyanapu, Alfred J., Kao, Shih-Chieh, Ghafoor, Sheikh, and Ashfaq, Moetasim. Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling.  Germany: N. p., 2021. 
Web.  doi:10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021.

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                    Dullo, Tigstu T., Darkwah, George K., Gangrade, Sudershan, Morales-Hernández, Mario, Sharif, M. Bulbul, Kalyanapu, Alfred J., Kao, Shih-Chieh, Ghafoor, Sheikh, & Ashfaq, Moetasim. Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling.  Germany.  https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021

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                    Dullo, Tigstu T., Darkwah, George K., Gangrade, Sudershan, Morales-Hernández, Mario, Sharif, M. Bulbul, Kalyanapu, Alfred J., Kao, Shih-Chieh, Ghafoor, Sheikh, and Ashfaq, Moetasim. Wed .  
"Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling".  Germany.  https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021.

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@article{osti_1785582,

  title        = {Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling},

  author       = {Dullo, Tigstu T. and Darkwah, George K. and Gangrade, Sudershan and Morales-Hernández, Mario and Sharif, M. Bulbul and Kalyanapu, Alfred J. and Kao, Shih-Chieh and Ghafoor, Sheikh and Ashfaq, Moetasim},

  abstractNote = {Abstract. This study evaluates the impact of potential future climate change on flood regimes, floodplain protection, and electricity infrastructures across the Conasauga River watershed in the southeastern United States through ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling. The ensemble streamflow scenarios were simulated by the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) driven by (1) 1981–2012 Daymet meteorological observations and (2) 11 sets of downscaled global climate models (GCMs) during the 1966–2005 historical and 2011–2050 future periods. Surface inundation was simulated using a GPU-accelerated Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON) hydrodynamic model. A total of 9 out of the 11 GCMs exhibit an increase in the mean ensemble flood inundation areas. Moreover, at the 1 % annual exceedance probability level, the flood inundation frequency curves indicate a ∼ 16 km2 increase in floodplain area. The assessment also shows that even after flood-proofing, four of the substations could still be affected in the projected future period. The increase in floodplain area and substation vulnerability highlights the need to account for climate change in floodplain management. Overall, this study provides a proof-of-concept demonstration of how the computationally intensive hydrodynamic inundation modeling can be used to enhance flood frequency maps and vulnerability assessment under the changing climatic conditions.},

  doi          = {10.5194/nhess-21-1739-2021},

  journal      = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (Online)},

  number       = 6,

  volume       = 21,

  place        = {Germany},

  year         = {Wed Jun 02 00:00:00 EDT 2021},

  month        = {Wed Jun 02 00:00:00 EDT 2021}

}

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Title: Assessing climate-change-induced flood risk in the Conasauga River watershed: an application of ensemble hydrodynamic inundation modeling

Abstract

Citation Formats

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW journal, October 2013

Energy critical infrastructures at risk from climate change: A state of the art review journal, December 2018

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Assessment of Tangible Direct Flood Damage Using a Spatial Analysis Approach under the Effects of Climate Change: Case Study in an Urban Watershed in Hanoi, Vietnam journal, January 2018

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Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards journal, December 2018

Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States journal, May 2006

Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping: ADVANCES IN PAN-EUROPEAN FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING journal, July 2013

Methodology for Assessing the Resilience of Networked Infrastructure journal, June 2009

RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains journal, March 2012

What Large Sample Size Is Sufficient for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis?—A Rational Argument for a 30-Year Hydrologic Sample Size in Water Resources Management journal, April 2018

Evaluating Future Flood Scenarios Using CMIP5 Climate Projections journal, December 2018

Initial Effects of Prescribed Fire on Quality of Soil Solution and Streamwater in the Southern Appalachian Mountains journal, February 2005

Assessment and Possible Solution to Increase Resilience: Flooding Threats in Terni Distribution Grid journal, February 2019

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State journal, May 2010

Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe journal, January 2015

Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States journal, January 2010

Approach to Digital Elevation Model Correction by Improving Channel Conveyance journal, May 2015

Application of a GIS-based distributed hydrology model for prediction of forest harvest effects on peak stream flow in the Pacific Northwest journal, May 1998

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios journal, November 2015

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW
journal, October 2013

Energy critical infrastructures at risk from climate change: A state of the art review
journal, December 2018

Potential effects of climate change on inundation patterns in the Amazon Basin
journal, January 2013

Asymptotic Theory of Certain "Goodness of Fit" Criteria Based on Stochastic Processes
journal, June 1952

Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States
journal, February 2018

Estimating the Impacts of Climate Change and Population Growth on Flood Discharges in the United States
journal, September 2012

GeoFlood: Large‐Scale Flood Inundation Mapping Based on High‐Resolution Terrain Analysis
journal, December 2018

Escalating impacts of climate extremes on critical infrastructures in Europe
journal, January 2018

Validation of a 30 m resolution flood hazard model of the conterminous United States: 30 m RESOLUTION FLOOD MODEL OF CONUS
journal, September 2017

Performance Evaluation and Enhancements of a Flood Simulator Application for Heterogeneous HPC Environments
journal, January 2018

Multi-Model Projections of River Flood Risk in Europe under Global Warming
journal, January 2018

Integrating a reservoir regulation scheme into a spatially distributed hydrological model
journal, December 2016

High-performance computing in water resources hydrodynamics
journal, March 2020

Global drivers of future river flood risk
journal, December 2015

Integrated assessment of climate impacts and adaptation in the energy sector
journal, November 2014

Incorporating Climate Nonstationarity and Snowmelt Processes in Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analyses with Case Studies in Mountainous Areas
journal, December 2019

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
journal, January 2002

Climate change impacts on the energy system: a review of trends and gaps
journal, August 2018

Ensemble-based flood vulnerability assessment for probable maximum flood in a changing environment
journal, September 2019

Assessment of Tangible Direct Flood Damage Using a Spatial Analysis Approach under the Effects of Climate Change: Case Study in an Urban Watershed in Hanoi, Vietnam
journal, January 2018

Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets – A review of models and forecasts
journal, March 2014

Flood Risk Delineation in the United States: How Much Loss Are We Capturing?
journal, August 2017

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
journal, March 2014

TRITON: A Multi-GPU open source 2D hydrodynamic flood model
journal, July 2021

Drawing lines: FEMA and the politics of mapping flood zones
journal, September 2018

Climate change impacts on flood risk and asset damages within mapped 100-year floodplains of the contiguous United States
journal, January 2017

Multi-model Hydroclimate Projections for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin in the Southeastern United States
journal, February 2020

Global flood risk under climate change
journal, June 2013

Assessment of GPU computational enhancement to a 2D flood model
journal, August 2011

Critical infrastructure impact assessment due to flood exposure: Critical infrastructure impact assessment due to flood exposure
journal, January 2017

Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States
journal, January 2010

Precipitation and Damaging Floods: Trends in the United States, 1932–97
journal, October 2000

Broad threat to humanity from cumulative climate hazards intensified by greenhouse gas emissions
journal, November 2018

Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States
journal, December 2008

A new look at the statistical model identification
journal, December 1974

Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain
journal, March 1997

High-resolution ensemble projections of near-term regional climate over the continental United States: CLIMATE PROJECTIONS OVER THE U.S.
journal, September 2016

Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events
journal, April 2010

A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain
journal, June 1994

Flood Risk and Vulnerability of Addis Ababa City Due to Climate Change and Urbanization
journal, January 2016

Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards
journal, December 2018

Climate Change and Floodplain Management in the United States
journal, May 2006

Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping: ADVANCES IN PAN-EUROPEAN FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING
journal, July 2013

Methodology for Assessing the Resilience of Networked Infrastructure
journal, June 2009

RegCM4: model description and preliminary tests over multiple CORDEX domains
journal, March 2012

What Large Sample Size Is Sufficient for Hydrologic Frequency Analysis?—A Rational Argument for a 30-Year Hydrologic Sample Size in Water Resources Management
journal, April 2018

Evaluating Future Flood Scenarios Using CMIP5 Climate Projections
journal, December 2018

Initial Effects of Prescribed Fire on Quality of Soil Solution and Streamwater in the Southern Appalachian Mountains
journal, February 2005

Assessment and Possible Solution to Increase Resilience: Flooding Threats in Terni Distribution Grid
journal, February 2019

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State
journal, May 2010

Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe
journal, January 2015

Influence of climate model biases and daily-scale temperature and precipitation events on hydrological impacts assessment: A case study of the United States
journal, January 2010

Approach to Digital Elevation Model Correction by Improving Channel Conveyance
journal, May 2015

Application of a GIS-based distributed hydrology model for prediction of forest harvest effects on peak stream flow in the Pacific Northwest
journal, May 1998

Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios
journal, November 2015