Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Kroll, Kayla A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

doi:10.1029/2020GL092148

Title: Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

Journal Article · 15 June 2021 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092148 · OSTI ID:1785427

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Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
U. S. Geological Survey Earthquake Science Center Pasadena CA USA

Abstract Seismic hazard forecasts of induced seismicity often require estimates of the maximum possible magnitude ( M _max ). Empirical models suggest that maximum magnitudes, or expected number of earthquakes, are related to the volume of injected fluid. We perform a suite of 3D physics‐based earthquake simulations with rate‐ and state‐dependent friction, systematically varying the area of the pressurized region and the amplitude of the initial homogeneous or heterogeneous shear stress. Using the resulting catalog we explore the conditions that result in pressure‐controlled versus runaway ruptures that extend outside the pressurized zone. We find that proposed empirical scaling laws correctly predict M _max when shear stresses are further from failure (≤90% of maximum shear stress) and for high amplitude stress fields. Runaway ruptures are observed for higher initial shear stresses and smoother stress fields. In these cases, runaway ruptures occur early after the onset of injection and rarely preceded by foreshock activity.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-07NA27344

OSTI ID:: 1785427

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-817834; e2020GL092148

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 11 Vol. 48; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Stress Controls Rupture Extent and Maximum Magnitude of Induced Earthquakes

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