Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife
Abstract
Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008–16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.
- Authors:
-
- Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC), Madison, WI (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (GLBRC), Madison, WI (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); USDA; National Science Foundation (NSF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1776854
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0018409; 96-3A75-16-032; DGE-1747503
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Lark, Tyler J., Spawn, Seth A., Bougie, Matthew, and Gibbs, Holly K. Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z.
Lark, Tyler J., Spawn, Seth A., Bougie, Matthew, & Gibbs, Holly K. Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z
Lark, Tyler J., Spawn, Seth A., Bougie, Matthew, and Gibbs, Holly K. Wed .
"Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1776854.
@article{osti_1776854,
title = {Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife},
author = {Lark, Tyler J. and Spawn, Seth A. and Bougie, Matthew and Gibbs, Holly K.},
abstractNote = {Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008–16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-18045-z},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Wed Sep 09 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}
Works referenced in this record:
Farming the planet: 2. Geographic distribution of crop areas, yields, physiological types, and net primary production in the year 2000: GLOBAL CROP AREAS AND YIELDS IN 2000
journal, March 2008
- Monfreda, Chad; Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A.
- Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 22, Issue 1
Redefining agricultural yields: from tonnes to people nourished per hectare
journal, August 2013
- Cassidy, Emily S.; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Carbon emissions from cropland expansion in the United States
journal, April 2019
- Spawn, Seth A.; Lark, Tyler J.; Gibbs, Holly K.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 4
Largely underestimated carbon emission from land use and land cover change in the conterminous United States
journal, August 2019
- Yu, Zhen; Lu, Chaoqun; Tian, Hanqin
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 25, Issue 11
Trading carbon for food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land
journal, November 2010
- West, P. C.; Gibbs, H. K.; Monfreda, C.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 46
Global agriculture and carbon trade-offs
journal, August 2014
- Johnson, J. A.; Runge, C. F.; Senauer, B.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 34
Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States
journal, April 2015
- Lark, Tyler J.; Meghan Salmon, J.; Gibbs, Holly K.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Humans are driving one million species to extinction
journal, May 2019
- Tollefson, Jeff
- Nature, Vol. 569, Issue 7755
Perennial grasslands enhance biodiversity and multiple ecosystem services in bioenergy landscapes
journal, January 2014
- Werling, B. P.; Dickson, T. L.; Isaacs, R.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 111, Issue 4
Bird communities in future bioenergy landscapes of the Upper Midwest
journal, October 2010
- Meehan, T. D.; Hurlbert, A. H.; Gratton, C.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 43
Restoring monarch butterfly habitat in the Midwestern US: ‘all hands on deck’
journal, June 2017
- Thogmartin, Wayne E.; López-Hoffman, Laura; Rohweder, Jason
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 12, Issue 7
Planted Grasslands and Native Sod Prairie: Equivalent Habitat for Grassland Birds?
journal, June 2009
- Bakker, Kristel K.; Higgins, Kenneth F.
- Western North American Naturalist, Vol. 69, Issue 2
Comparing Ecosystem Goods and Services Provided by Restored and Native Lands
journal, October 2008
- Dodds, Walter K.; Wilson, Kymberly C.; Rehmeier, Ryan L.
- BioScience, Vol. 58, Issue 9
Accelerated Conversion of Native Prairie to Cropland in Minnesota
journal, December 2018
- Lark, Tyler J.; Larson, Ben; Schelly, Ian
- Environmental Conservation, Vol. 46, Issue 2
Cropland expansion and grassland loss in the eastern Dakotas: New insights from a farm-level survey
journal, April 2017
- Wimberly, Michael C.; Janssen, Larry L.; Hennessy, David A.
- Land Use Policy, Vol. 63
Monitoring US agriculture: the US Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Cropland Data Layer Program
journal, August 2011
- Boryan, Claire; Yang, Zhengwei; Mueller, Rick
- Geocarto International, Vol. 26, Issue 5
Historical cropland expansion and abandonment in the continental U.S. during 1850 to 2016
journal, December 2017
- Yu, Zhen; Lu, Chaoqun
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 27, Issue 3
TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015
journal, January 2018
- Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.
- Scientific Data, Vol. 5, Issue 1
The Farm Bill and Duck Production in the Prairie Pothole Region: Increasing the Benefits
journal, November 2006
- Reynolds, Ronald E.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Loesch, Charles R.
- Wildlife Society Bulletin, Vol. 34, Issue 4
An Integrated Strategy for Grassland Easement Acquisition in the Prairie Pothole Region, USA
journal, August 2013
- Walker, Johann; Rotella, Jay J.; Loesch, Charles R.
- Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management, Vol. 4, Issue 2
A new generation of the United States National Land Cover Database: Requirements, research priorities, design, and implementation strategies
journal, December 2018
- Yang, Limin; Jin, Suming; Danielson, Patrick
- ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 146
Mapping farmland abandonment and recultivation across Europe using MODIS NDVI time series
journal, June 2015
- Estel, Stephan; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Alcántara, Camilo
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 163
Mapping agricultural land abandonment from spatial and temporal segmentation of Landsat time series
journal, June 2018
- Yin, He; Prishchepov, Alexander V.; Kuemmerle, Tobias
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 210
Monitoring cropland abandonment with Landsat time series
journal, September 2020
- Yin, He; Brandão, Amintas; Buchner, Johanna
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 246
An assessment of pre- and within-season remotely sensed variables for forecasting corn and soybean yields in the United States
journal, February 2014
- Johnson, David M.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 141
In situ immune response and mechanisms of cell damage in central nervous system of fatal cases microcephaly by Zika virus
journal, January 2018
- Azevedo, Raimunda S. S.; de Sousa, Jorge R.; Araujo, Marialva T. F.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1
The global distribution of cultivable lands: current patterns and sensitivity to possible climate change
journal, September 2002
- Ramankutty, Navin; Foley, Jonathan A.; Norman, John
- Global Ecology and Biogeography, Vol. 11, Issue 5
Environmental Effects of Agricultural Land-Use Change: the role of Economics and Policy
text, January 2006
- Lubowski, Ruben N.; Bucholtz, Shawn; Claassen, Roger
- Unknown
Changes in cropland area in the United States and the role of CRP
journal, February 2018
- Hendricks, Nathan P.; Er, Emrah
- Food Policy, Vol. 75
Grassland connectivity in fragmented agricultural landscapes of the north-central United States
journal, January 2018
- Wimberly, Michael C.; Narem, Diane M.; Bauman, Peter J.
- Biological Conservation, Vol. 217
Mapping irrigated cropland extent across the conterminous United States at 30 m resolution using a semi-automatic training approach on Google Earth Engine
journal, September 2019
- Xie, Yanhua; Lark, Tyler J.; Brown, Jesslyn F.
- ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 155
Groundwater depletion and sustainability of irrigation in the US High Plains and Central Valley
journal, May 2012
- Scanlon, B. R.; Faunt, C. C.; Longuevergne, L.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 24
Insects as flagship conservation species
journal, January 2009
- Oberhauser, Karen; Guiney, Margaret
- Terrestrial Arthropod Reviews, Vol. 1, Issue 2
The Monarch Butterfly through Time and Space: The Social Construction of an Icon
journal, May 2015
- Gustafsson, Karin M.; Agrawal, Anurag A.; Lewenstein, Bruce V.
- BioScience, Vol. 65, Issue 6
Milkweed restoration in the Midwest for monarch butterfly recovery: estimates of milkweeds lost, milkweeds remaining and milkweeds that must be added to increase the monarch population
journal, September 2016
- Pleasants, John
- Insect Conservation and Diversity, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes
journal, September 2017
- Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen
- Royal Society Open Science, Vol. 4, Issue 9
Monarchs in decline: a collateral landscape-level effect of modern agriculture: Landscape-level effect of GM crops on monarchs
journal, December 2016
- Stenoien, Carl; Nail, Kelly R.; Zalucki, Jacinta M.
- Insect Science, Vol. 25, Issue 4
One step ahead of the plow: Using cropland conversion risk to guide Sprague's Pipit conservation in the northern Great Plains
journal, November 2015
- Lipsey, Marisa K.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Naugle, David E.
- Biological Conservation, Vol. 191
At the margins: agriculture, subsidies and the shifting fate of North America’s native grassland
journal, July 2015
- Sylvester, K. M.; Gutmann, M. P.; Brown, D. G.
- Population and Environment, Vol. 37, Issue 3
Preserving native grassland: Can Sodsaver reduce cropland conversion?
journal, January 2018
- Claassen, Roger; Wade, Tara; Breneman, Vince
- Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 73, Issue 3
Protecting our prairies: Research and policy actions for conserving America’s grasslands
journal, September 2020
- Lark, Tyler J.
- Land Use Policy, Vol. 97
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
journal, December 2016
- Hudson, Lawrence N.; Newbold, Tim; Contu, Sara
- Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 7, Issue 1
How Global Is the Global Biodiversity Information Facility?
journal, November 2007
- Yesson, Chris; Brewer, Peter W.; Sutton, Tim
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 2, Issue 11
The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making? 1
journal, November 2010
- Hertel, Thomas W.
- American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 93, Issue 2
Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture
journal, November 2011
- Tilman, D.; Balzer, C.; Hill, J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 108, Issue 50
Extensive and Intensive Agricultural Supply Response
journal, October 2015
- Babcock, Bruce A.
- Annual Review of Resource Economics, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Modeling land physically in CGE models: new insights on intensive and extensive margins
text, January 2017
- Zhao, Xin; Van Der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Tyner, Wallace E.
- Unknown
Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil
journal, July 2011
- Barr, Kanlaya J.; Babcock, Bruce A.; Carriquiry, Miguel A.
- Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Vol. 33, Issue 3
Global projections of future cropland expansion to 2050 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon storage
journal, October 2018
- Molotoks, Amy; Stehfest, Elke; Doelman, Jonathan
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 24, Issue 12
Trade-offs for food production, nature conservation and climate limit the terrestrial carbon dioxide removal potential
journal, May 2017
- Boysen, Lena R.; Lucht, Wolfgang; Gerten, Dieter
- Global Change Biology, Vol. 23, Issue 10
Global impacts of future cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity
journal, June 2019
- Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Schneider, Julia M.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1
Planetary boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet
journal, January 2015
- Steffen, W.; Richardson, K.; Rockstrom, J.
- Science, Vol. 347, Issue 6223
Solutions for a cultivated planet
journal, October 2011
- Foley, Jonathan A.; Ramankutty, Navin; Brauman, Kate A.
- Nature, Vol. 478, Issue 7369
Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People
journal, January 2010
- Godfray, H. C. J.; Beddington, J. R.; Crute, I. R.
- Science, Vol. 327, Issue 5967
Recycling, recovering and preventing “food waste”: competing solutions for food systems sustainability in the United States and France
journal, July 2016
- Mourad, Marie
- Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 126
Food waste within food supply chains: quantification and potential for change to 2050
journal, September 2010
- Parfitt, Julian; Barthel, Mark; Macnaughton, Sarah
- Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 365, Issue 1554
The opportunity cost of animal based diets exceeds all food losses
journal, March 2018
- Shepon, Alon; Eshel, Gidon; Noor, Elad
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 15
Crop Yield Gaps: Their Importance, Magnitudes, and Causes
journal, November 2009
- Lobell, David B.; Cassman, Kenneth G.; Field, Christopher B.
- Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 34, Issue 1
Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management
journal, August 2012
- Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Gerber, James S.; Johnston, Matt
- Nature, Vol. 490, Issue 7419
Enhancing Water Use Efficiency in Irrigated Agriculture
journal, January 2001
- Howell, Terry A.
- Agronomy Journal, Vol. 93, Issue 2
Managing nitrogen for sustainable development
journal, November 2015
- Zhang, Xin; Davidson, Eric A.; Mauzerall, Denise L.
- Nature, Vol. 528, Issue 7580
Cover crops in the upper midwestern United States: Potential adoption and reduction of nitrate leaching in the Mississippi River Basin
journal, July 2014
- Kladivko, E. J.; Kaspar, T. C.; Jaynes, D. B.
- Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, Vol. 69, Issue 4
Comparing infiltration rates in soils managed with conventional and alternative farming methods: A meta-analysis
journal, September 2019
- Basche, Andrea D.; DeLonge, Marcia S.
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 14, Issue 9
Saturated Buffers: What Is Their Potential Impact across the US Midwest?
journal, January 2019
- Chandrasoma, Janith M.; Christianson, Reid D.; Christianson, Laura E.
- Agricultural & Environmental Letters, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Prairie strips improve biodiversity and the delivery of multiple ecosystem services from corn–soybean croplands
journal, October 2017
- Schulte, Lisa A.; Niemi, Jarad; Helmers, Matthew J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 114, Issue 42
National food production stabilized by crop diversity
journal, June 2019
- Renard, Delphine; Tilman, David
- Nature, Vol. 571, Issue 7764
Natural climate solutions for the United States
journal, November 2018
- Fargione, Joseph E.; Bassett, Steven; Boucher, Timothy
- Science Advances, Vol. 4, Issue 11
Regenerative agriculture: merging farming and natural resource conservation profitably
journal, January 2018
- LaCanne, Claire E.; Lundgren, Jonathan G.
- PeerJ, Vol. 6
Measuring land-use and land-cover change using the U.S. department of agriculture’s cropland data layer: Cautions and recommendations
journal, October 2017
- Lark, Tyler J.; Mueller, Richard M.; Johnson, David M.
- International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, Vol. 62
Adaptive majority filtering for contextual classification of remote sensing data
journal, March 1996
- Kim, Kwang E.
- International Journal of Remote Sensing, Vol. 17, Issue 5
A Computer Movie Simulating Urban Growth in the Detroit Region
journal, June 1970
- Tobler, W. R.
- Economic Geography, Vol. 46
Tobler's First Law and Spatial Analysis
journal, June 2004
- Miller, Harvey J.
- Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 94, Issue 2
Random Forests for Global and Regional Crop Yield Predictions
journal, June 2016
- Jeong, Jig Han; Resop, Jonathan P.; Mueller, Nathaniel D.
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 11, Issue 6
Google Earth Engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone
journal, December 2017
- Gorelick, Noel; Hancher, Matt; Dixon, Mike
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 202
Overall Methodology Design for the United States National Land Cover Database 2016 Products
journal, December 2019
- Jin, Suming; Homer, Collin; Yang, Limin
- Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 24