Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach
Abstract
Abstract Recent studies examine the potential for large urban fires ignited in a hypothetical nuclear exchange of one hundred 15 kt weapons between India and Pakistan to alter the climate (e.g., Mills et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000205 , and Reisner et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027331 ). In this study, the global climate forcing and response is predicted by combining two atmospheric models, which together span the micro‐scale to global scale processes involved. Individual fire plumes are modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the climate response is predicted by injecting the WRF‐simulated black carbon (BC) emissions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model Version 1 (EAMv1). Consistent with previous studies, the radiative forcing depends on smoke quantity and injection height, examined here as functions of fuel loading and atmospheric conditions. If the fuel burned is 1 g cm −2 , BC is quickly removed from the troposphere, causing no global mean climate forcing. If the fuel burned is 16 g cm −2 and 100 such fires occurred simultaneously with characteristics similar to historical large urban firestorms, BC reaches the stratosphere, reducing solar radiation and causing cooling at the Earth's surface. Uncertainties in smoke composition and aerosol representation cause large uncertainties inmore »
- Authors:
-
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1764313
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1786805
- Report Number(s):
- LLNL-JRNL-809541
Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X; 1015560
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 125; Journal Issue: 24; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Wagman, Benjamin M., Lundquist, Katherine A., Tang, Qi, Glascoe, Lee G., and Bader, David C. Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach. United States: N. p., 2020.
Web. doi:10.1029/2020jd033056.
Wagman, Benjamin M., Lundquist, Katherine A., Tang, Qi, Glascoe, Lee G., & Bader, David C. Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033056
Wagman, Benjamin M., Lundquist, Katherine A., Tang, Qi, Glascoe, Lee G., and Bader, David C. Mon .
"Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jd033056. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1764313.
@article{osti_1764313,
title = {Examining the Climate Effects of a Regional Nuclear Weapons Exchange Using a Multiscale Atmospheric Modeling Approach},
author = {Wagman, Benjamin M. and Lundquist, Katherine A. and Tang, Qi and Glascoe, Lee G. and Bader, David C.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Recent studies examine the potential for large urban fires ignited in a hypothetical nuclear exchange of one hundred 15 kt weapons between India and Pakistan to alter the climate (e.g., Mills et al., 2014, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013EF000205 , and Reisner et al., 2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027331 ). In this study, the global climate forcing and response is predicted by combining two atmospheric models, which together span the micro‐scale to global scale processes involved. Individual fire plumes are modeled using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and the climate response is predicted by injecting the WRF‐simulated black carbon (BC) emissions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere model Version 1 (EAMv1). Consistent with previous studies, the radiative forcing depends on smoke quantity and injection height, examined here as functions of fuel loading and atmospheric conditions. If the fuel burned is 1 g cm −2 , BC is quickly removed from the troposphere, causing no global mean climate forcing. If the fuel burned is 16 g cm −2 and 100 such fires occurred simultaneously with characteristics similar to historical large urban firestorms, BC reaches the stratosphere, reducing solar radiation and causing cooling at the Earth's surface. Uncertainties in smoke composition and aerosol representation cause large uncertainties in the magnitude of the radiative forcing and cooling. The approximately 4 yr duration of the radiative forcing is shorter than the 8 to 15 yr that has previously been simulated. Uncertainties point to the need for further development of potential nuclear exchange scenarios, quantification of fuel loading, and improved understanding of fire propagation and aerosol modeling.},
doi = {10.1029/2020jd033056},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 24,
volume = 125,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2020},
month = {Mon Nov 23 00:00:00 EST 2020}
}
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