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Title: Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”

Abstract

We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this discussion motivates further consideration of communication strategies for event attribution analyses.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4]
  1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and School of Earth Sciences University of Melbourne Melbourne Victoria Australia
  2. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre University of New South Wales Sydney New South Wales Australia
  3. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
  4. ACT Commissioner for Sustainability and the Environment Canberra Australian Capital Territory Australia
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
OSTI Identifier:
1760027
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1786850; OSTI ID: 1827915
Grant/Contract Number:  
DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Citation Formats

King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Wehner, Michael F., and Lewis, Sophie C. Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”. United States: N. p., 2021. Web. doi:10.1029/2020EF001757.
King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Wehner, Michael F., & Lewis, Sophie C. Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001757
King, Andrew D., Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E., Wehner, Michael F., and Lewis, Sophie C. Sat . "Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001757.
@article{osti_1760027,
title = {Reply to Comment by Mandel et al. on “Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively”},
author = {King, Andrew D. and Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. and Wehner, Michael F. and Lewis, Sophie C.},
abstractNote = {We thank the Comment's authors for their considered critique of our paper. We respond to their main criticisms and hope that this discussion motivates further consideration of communication strategies for event attribution analyses.},
doi = {10.1029/2020EF001757},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2021},
month = {1}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001757

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Works referenced in this record:

Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies
journal, September 2019

  • Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001273

Numerically Bounded Linguistic Probability Schemes Are Unlikely to Communicate Uncertainty Effectively
journal, January 2021

  • Mandel, D. R.; Wallsten, T. S.; Budescu, D. V.
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 9, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1029/2020EF001526

Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments
journal, March 2005


Anthropogenic and Natural Influences on Record 2016 Marine Heat waves
journal, January 2018

  • Oliver, Eric C. J.; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Holbrook, Neil J.
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0093.1

Communicating uncertainty: lessons learned and suggestions for climate change assessment
journal, March 2005