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Title: Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics

Abstract

Abstract Global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks may decline with a warmer climate. However, model projections of changes in SOC due to climate warming depend on microbially-driven processes that are usually parameterized based on laboratory incubations. To assess how lab-scale incubation datasets inform model projections over decades, we optimized five microbially-relevant parameters in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model using 16 short-term glucose (6-day), 16 short-term cellulose (30-day) and 16 long-term cellulose (729-day) incubation datasets with soils from forests and grasslands across contrasting soil types. Our analysis identified consistently higher parameter estimates given the short-term versus long-term datasets. Implementing the short-term and long-term parameters, respectively, resulted in SOC loss (–8.2 ± 5.1% or –3.9 ± 2.8%), and minor SOC gain (1.8 ± 1.0%) in response to 5 °C warming, while only the latter is consistent with a meta-analysis of 149 field warming observations (1.6 ± 4.0%). Comparing multiple subsets of cellulose incubations (i.e., 6, 30, 90, 180, 360, 480 and 729-day) revealed comparable projections to the observed long-term SOC changes under warming only on 480- and 729-day. Integrating multi-year datasets of soil incubations (e.g., > 1.5 years) with microbial models can thus achieve more reasonable parameterization of key microbial processes and subsequently boost the accuracy and confidence of long-term SOCmore » projections.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo; ; ORCiD logo
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1716534
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1731058
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; 1900885; SC0014079; 4000148926
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Nature Communications
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Volume: 11 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
Publisher:
Nature Publishing Group
Country of Publication:
United Kingdom
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; biogeochemistry; ecology

Citation Formats

Jian, Siyang, Li, Jianwei, Wang, Gangsheng, Kluber, Laurel A., Schadt, Christopher W., Liang, Junyi, and Mayes, Melanie A.. Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics. United Kingdom: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19428-y.
Jian, Siyang, Li, Jianwei, Wang, Gangsheng, Kluber, Laurel A., Schadt, Christopher W., Liang, Junyi, & Mayes, Melanie A.. Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19428-y
Jian, Siyang, Li, Jianwei, Wang, Gangsheng, Kluber, Laurel A., Schadt, Christopher W., Liang, Junyi, and Mayes, Melanie A.. Tue . "Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19428-y.
@article{osti_1716534,
title = {Multi-year incubation experiments boost confidence in model projections of long-term soil carbon dynamics},
author = {Jian, Siyang and Li, Jianwei and Wang, Gangsheng and Kluber, Laurel A. and Schadt, Christopher W. and Liang, Junyi and Mayes, Melanie A.},
abstractNote = {Abstract Global soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks may decline with a warmer climate. However, model projections of changes in SOC due to climate warming depend on microbially-driven processes that are usually parameterized based on laboratory incubations. To assess how lab-scale incubation datasets inform model projections over decades, we optimized five microbially-relevant parameters in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model using 16 short-term glucose (6-day), 16 short-term cellulose (30-day) and 16 long-term cellulose (729-day) incubation datasets with soils from forests and grasslands across contrasting soil types. Our analysis identified consistently higher parameter estimates given the short-term versus long-term datasets. Implementing the short-term and long-term parameters, respectively, resulted in SOC loss (–8.2 ± 5.1% or –3.9 ± 2.8%), and minor SOC gain (1.8 ± 1.0%) in response to 5 °C warming, while only the latter is consistent with a meta-analysis of 149 field warming observations (1.6 ± 4.0%). Comparing multiple subsets of cellulose incubations (i.e., 6, 30, 90, 180, 360, 480 and 729-day) revealed comparable projections to the observed long-term SOC changes under warming only on 480- and 729-day. Integrating multi-year datasets of soil incubations (e.g., > 1.5 years) with microbial models can thus achieve more reasonable parameterization of key microbial processes and subsequently boost the accuracy and confidence of long-term SOC projections.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-020-19428-y},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 11,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {2020},
month = {11}
}

Journal Article:
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https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-19428-y

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