Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

Fofrich, Robert; Tong, Dan; Calvin, Katherine; De Boer, Harmen Sytze; Emmerling, Johannes; Fricko, Oliver; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Luderer, Gunnar; Rogelj, Joeri; Davis, Steven J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3

Title: Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

Journal Article · 27 August 2020 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d3 · OSTI ID:1673622

^[1]; Tong, Dan ^[1];

^[2]; De Boer, Harmen Sytze ^[3];

^[4]; Fricko, Oliver ^[5];

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Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague (Netherlands); Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands). Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development
RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Milan (Italy)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Kyoto Univ. (Japan)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany); Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg (Austria); Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO₂ of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE; National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830; EAR-1639318; S0NSSC17K0416

OSTI ID:: 1673622

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-153068

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 9; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS
climate change
energy systems
power plants
representative concentration pathways
integrated assessment model
shared socioeconomic pathways
climate policy

Title: Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

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