Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes
Abstract
Abstract Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational andmore »
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1670846
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1612182; OSTI ID: 1670848
- Grant/Contract Number:
- DE‐SC0014423; SC0014423; 1612904; 1565522; NNX16AN29G
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change Journal Volume: 10 Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1757-7780
- Publisher:
- Wiley Blackwell (John Wiley & Sons)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change; Drought; Monsoon; Sahel
Citation Formats
Biasutti, Michela. Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1002/wcc.591.
Biasutti, Michela. Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes. United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591
Biasutti, Michela. Tue .
"Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes". United States. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591.
@article{osti_1670846,
title = {Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes},
author = {Biasutti, Michela},
abstractNote = {Abstract Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change},
doi = {10.1002/wcc.591},
journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate Change},
number = 4,
volume = 10,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jun 04 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Tue Jun 04 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.591
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 110 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
Coordinated Abrupt Weakening of the Eurasian and North African Monsoons in the 1960s and Links to Extratropical North Atlantic Cooling
journal, May 2012
- Liu, Y.; Chiang, J. C. H.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 10
Investigating soil moisture–climate interactions in a changing climate: A review
journal, May 2010
- Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Corti, Thierry; Davin, Edouard L.
- Earth-Science Reviews, Vol. 99, Issue 3-4
Recent trends in vegetation dynamics in the African Sahel and their relationship to climate
journal, December 2005
- Herrmann, Stefanie M.; Anyamba, Assaf; Tucker, Compton J.
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 15, Issue 4
The propagation and diurnal cycles of deep convection in northern tropical Africa
journal, January 2008
- Laing, Arlene G.; Carbone, Richard; Levizzani, Vincenzo
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 134, Issue 630
Frequency of Sahelian storm initiation enhanced over mesoscale soil-moisture patterns
journal, June 2011
- Taylor, Christopher M.; Gounou, Amanda; Guichard, Françoise
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 7
Uncertain soil moisture feedbacks in model projections of Sahel precipitation: Soil Moisture Feedbacks in the Sahel
journal, June 2017
- Berg, Alexis; Lintner, Benjamin R.; Findell, Kirsten
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 12
The role of moist convection in the West African monsoon system: Insights from continental-scale convection-permitting simulations: CONVECTION IN THE WEST AFRICAN MONSOON
journal, May 2013
- Marsham, John H.; Dixon, Nick S.; Garcia-Carreras, Luis
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 9
Relationships between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans
journal, April 2004
- Bretherton, Christopher S.; Peters, Matthew E.; Back, Larissa E.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 7
Anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and the southward shift of tropical precipitation in the late 20th century: AEROSOLS AND TROPICAL RAIN BELT SHIFTS
journal, June 2013
- Hwang, Yen-Ting; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Kang, Sarah M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 11
The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation: SAHELIAN RAINFALL AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
journal, November 2003
- Bader, J.; Latif, M.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 22
Mechanisms for the Onset of the African Humid Period and Sahara Greening 14.5–11 ka BP
journal, May 2010
- Timm, Oliver; Köhler, Peter; Timmermann, Axel
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 10
The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone
journal, May 2013
- Marshall, J.; Donohoe, A.; Ferreira, D.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 42, Issue 7-8
Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa
journal, April 2009
- Shanahan, T. M.; Overpeck, J. T.; Anchukaitis, K. J.
- Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5925
Climate Change and Drought: the Soil Moisture Perspective
journal, April 2018
- Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin
- Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 4, Issue 2
Northern-hemispheric differential warming is the key to understanding the discrepancies in the projected Sahel rainfall
journal, January 2015
- Park, Jong-Yeon; Bader, Jürgen; Matei, Daniela
- Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
journal, April 2012
- Taylor, Karl E.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Meehl, Gerald A.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 4
Sensitivity of Twentieth-Century Sahel Rainfall to Sulfate Aerosol and CO 2 Forcing
journal, October 2011
- Ackerley, Duncan; Booth, Ben B. B.; Knight, Sylvia H. E.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19
Mechanisms of Climate Change in the Semiarid African Sahel: The Local View
journal, February 2010
- Giannini, Alessandra
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 3
A multi-scale analysis of the extreme rain event of Ouagadougou in 2009: Extreme Rain Event in Burkina Faso
journal, October 2017
- Lafore, Jean-Philippe; Beucher, Florent; Peyrillé, Philippe
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 709
Global Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development
journal, May 2007
- Reynolds, J. F.; Smith, D. M. S.; Lambin, E. F.
- Science, Vol. 316, Issue 5826
Dealing with uncertainty: integrating local and scientific knowledge of the climate and weather
journal, December 2014
- Kniveton, Dominic; Visman, Emma; Tall, Arame
- Disasters, Vol. 39, Issue s1
Seasonally dependent responses of subtropical highs and tropical rainfall to anthropogenic warming
journal, August 2018
- Song, Fengfei; Leung, L. Ruby; Lu, Jian
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 9
A Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model—Implementation and Simulation*
journal, June 2000
- Zeng, Ning; Neelin, J. David; Chou, Chia
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 57, Issue 11
The changing contexts of the desertification debate
journal, November 2005
- Herrmann, S. M.; Hutchinson, C. F.
- Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 63, Issue 3
Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?
journal, April 2013
- Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.; Sutton, Rowan
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 70, Issue 4
Assessment of uncertainties in the response of the African monsoon precipitation to land use change simulated by a regional model
journal, February 2014
- Hagos, Samson; Leung, L. Ruby; Xue, Yongkang
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 9-10
African Easterly Wave Variability and Its Relationship to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
journal, March 2001
- Thorncroft, Chris; Hodges, Kevin
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 14, Issue 6
CMIP5 Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of Precipitation in Monsoon Regions
journal, October 2013
- Seth, Anji; Rauscher, Sara A.; Biasutti, Michela
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 19
The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Combined Precipitation Dataset
journal, January 1997
- Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Arkin, Philip
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 78, Issue 1
What can climate services learn from theory and practice of co-production?
journal, December 2018
- Vincent, Katharine; Daly, Meaghan; Scannell, Claire
- Climate Services, Vol. 12
Performance metrics for climate models
journal, January 2008
- Gleckler, P. J.; Taylor, K. E.; Doutriaux, C.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D6
The Relationship between ITCZ Location and Cross-Equatorial Atmospheric Heat Transport: From the Seasonal Cycle to the Last Glacial Maximum
journal, June 2013
- Donohoe, Aaron; Marshall, John; Ferreira, David
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 11
Using long-term daily satellite based rainfall data (1983–2015) to analyze spatio-temporal changes in the sahelian rainfall regime
journal, July 2017
- Zhang, Wenmin; Brandt, Martin; Guichard, Francoise
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 550
The Sahelian standardized rainfall index revisited
journal, October 2009
- Ali, Abdou; Lebel, Thierry
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 29, Issue 12
Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models
journal, July 2015
- Scheff, Jacob; Frierson, Dargan M. W.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 14
Seasonality of the Observed Amplified Sahara Warming Trend and Implications for Sahel Rainfall
journal, May 2017
- Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 9
On the question of the “recovery” of the rains in the West African Sahel
journal, November 2005
- Nicholson, S.
- Journal of Arid Environments, Vol. 63, Issue 3
Spatio-temporal characteristics of the recent rainfall recovery in West Africa: RECENT RAINFALL RECOVERY IN WEST AFRICA
journal, March 2015
- Sanogo, Souleymane; Fink, Andreas H.; Omotosho, Jerome A.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 35, Issue 15
Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations
journal, November 2017
- Maraun, Douglas; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Widmann, Martin
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 11
Scales for rating heavy rainfall events in the West African Sahel
journal, September 2018
- Salack, Seyni; Saley, Inoussa A.; Lawson, Namo Z.
- Weather and Climate Extremes, Vol. 21
A Moist Static Energy Budget–Based Analysis of the Sahel Rainfall Response to Uniform Oceanic Warming
journal, August 2017
- Hill, Spencer A.; Ming, Yi; Held, Isaac M.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 15
Mesoscale Convective System Rainfall in the Sahel
journal, November 2002
- Mathon, Vincent; Laurent, Henri; Lebel, Thierry
- Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 41, Issue 11
Towards predictive understanding of regional climate change
journal, September 2015
- Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara; Vecchi, Gabriel A.
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 10
Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate
journal, January 2009
- Biasutti, Michela; Sobel, Adam H.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, Issue 23
Variability of moisture recycling using a precipitationshed framework
journal, January 2014
- Keys, P. W.; Barnes, E. A.; van der Ent, R. J.
- Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 10
Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change
journal, September 2018
- Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van ’t Klooster, Susan; van Alphen, Jos
- Global Environmental Change, Vol. 52
The Present and Future of the West African Monsoon: A Process-Oriented Assessment of CMIP5 Simulations along the AMMA Transect
journal, September 2013
- Roehrig, Romain; Bouniol, Dominique; Guichard, Francoise
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 17
Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming: SAHEL RAINFALL
journal, September 2005
- Haarsma, Reindert J.; Selten, Frank M.; Weber, Suzanne L.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 17
Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
journal, November 2018
- Shepherd, Theodore G.; Boyd, Emily; Calel, Raphael A.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 151, Issue 3-4
Simulated Tropical Response to a Substantial Weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
journal, June 2005
- Zhang, Rong; Delworth, Thomas L.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 18, Issue 12
Changes in seasonal descriptors of precipitation in Burkina Faso associated with late 20th century drought and recovery in West Africa
journal, January 2013
- Lodoun, Tiganadaba; Giannini, Alessandra; Traoré, Pierre Sibiry
- Environmental Development, Vol. 5
Tropical Biases in CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble: The Excessive Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue and Double ITCZ Problems
journal, February 2014
- Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 4
The Tropical Response to Extratropical Thermal Forcing in an Idealized GCM: The Importance of Radiative Feedbacks and Convective Parameterization
journal, September 2009
- Kang, Sarah M.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Held, Isaac M.
- Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 66, Issue 9
Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment
journal, August 2017
- Zappa, Giuseppe; Shepherd, Theodore G.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 16
An Environmentally Forced Tropical Cyclone Hazard Model
journal, January 2018
- Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Sobel, Adam H.
- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 1
The global precipitation response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 models
journal, October 2014
- Iles, Carley E.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 10
Forced Sahel rainfall trends in the CMIP5 archive: FORCED RAINFALL TRENDS IN THE SAHEL
journal, February 2013
- Biasutti, M.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 4
The Response of the ITCZ to Extratropical Thermal Forcing: Idealized Slab-Ocean Experiments with a GCM
journal, July 2008
- Kang, Sarah M.; Held, Isaac M.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 14
Simulation of Sahel drought in the 20th and 21st centuries
journal, December 2005
- Held, I. M.; Delworth, T. L.; Lu, J.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 102, Issue 50
Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics
journal, January 2018
- Collins, Matthew; Minobe, Shoshiro; Barreiro, Marcelo
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Crop quality under rising atmospheric CO2
journal, October 2018
- Uddling, Johan; Broberg, Malin C.; Feng, Zhaozhong
- Current Opinion in Plant Biology, Vol. 45
Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India
journal, February 2018
- Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje
- Water Resources Research, Vol. 54, Issue 2
Rainfall Types in the West African Sudanian Zone during the Summer Monsoon 2002
journal, August 2006
- Fink, A. H.; Vincent, D. G.; Ermert, V.
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 134, Issue 8
Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies
journal, May 2009
- Pierce, D. W.; Barnett, T. P.; Santer, B. D.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 21
A Pan-African Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulation with the Met Office Unified Model: CP4-Africa
journal, May 2018
- Stratton, Rachel A.; Senior, Catherine A.; Vosper, Simon B.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 9
The West African Sahel: A Review of Recent Studies on the Rainfall Regime and Its Interannual Variability
journal, January 2013
- Nicholson, Sharon E.
- ISRN Meteorology, Vol. 2013
Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models
journal, June 2016
- Covey, Curt; Gleckler, Peter J.; Doutriaux, Charles
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 12
Water Vapor–Forced Greenhouse Warming over the Sahara Desert and the Recent Recovery from the Sahelian Drought
journal, January 2015
- Evan, Amato T.; Flamant, Cyrille; Lavaysse, Christophe
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 1
Impacts of dust reduction on the northward expansion of the African monsoon during the Green Sahara period
journal, January 2016
- Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Messori, Gabriele; Zhang, Qiong
- Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Vol. 434
Reconciling spatial and temporal soil moisture effects on afternoon rainfall
journal, March 2015
- Guillod, Benoit P.; Orlowsky, Boris; Miralles, Diego G.
- Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Estimation of Continental Precipitation Recycling
journal, June 1993
- Brubaker, Kaye L.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, P. S.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 6, Issue 6
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change
journal, August 2009
- O'Gorman, P. A.; Schneider, T.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 35
Energetic Constraints on the Position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone
journal, July 2014
- Bischoff, Tobias; Schneider, Tapio
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 13
The relationship between African easterly waves and daily rainfall over West Africa: observations and regional climate simulations
journal, March 2014
- Crétat, Julien; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 44, Issue 1-2
Asymmetric forcing from stratospheric aerosols impacts Sahelian rainfall
journal, March 2013
- Haywood, Jim M.; Jones, Andy; Bellouin, Nicolas
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 7
The drying tendency of shallow meridional circulations in monsoons: The Drying Tendency of Shallow Meridional Circulations in Monsoons
journal, October 2017
- Zhai, Jun; Boos, William R.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 708
Dynamics of deserts and drought in the Sahel
journal, April 1975
- Charney, J. G.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 428
The ITCZ and the Seasonal Cycle over Equatorial Africa
journal, February 2018
- Nicholson, Sharon E.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, Issue 2
Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?
journal, October 2017
- Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 19
Palaeoclimatic insights into forcing and response of monsoon rainfall
journal, May 2016
- Mohtadi, Mahyar; Prange, Matthias; Steinke, Stephan
- Nature, Vol. 533, Issue 7602
Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing
journal, December 2007
- Trapp, R. J.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Brooks, H. E.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 104, Issue 50
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation
journal, October 2015
- Clement, A.; Bellomo, K.; Murphy, L. N.
- Science, Vol. 350, Issue 6258
Enhancement of Interdecadal Climate Variability in the Sahel by Vegetation Interaction
journal, November 1999
- Zeng, N.
- Science, Vol. 286, Issue 5444
Extratropical forcing and tropical rainfall distribution: energetics framework and ocean Ekman advection
journal, January 2018
- Kang, Sarah M.; Shin, Yechul; Xie, Shang-Ping
- npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 1, Issue 1
Regional-scale convection patterns during strong and weak phases of the Saharan heat low
journal, August 2010
- Lavaysse, C.; Flamant, C.; Janicot, S.
- Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 11, Issue 4
Process-based model evaluation and projections over southern Africa from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models
journal, July 2018
- Pinto, Izidine; Jack, Chris; Hewitson, Bruce
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 11
The regional impact of Land-Use Land-cover Change (LULCC) over West Africa from an ensemble of global climate models under the auspices of the WAMME2 project
journal, July 2016
- Boone, Aaron Anthony; Xue, Yongkang; De Sales, Fernando
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 47, Issue 11
Weakening and Shifting of the Saharan Shallow Meridional Circulation during Wet Years of the West African Monsoon
journal, September 2017
- Shekhar, Ravi; Boos, William R.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 18
Tropical Rainfall Trends and the Indirect Aerosol Effect
journal, August 2002
- Rotstayn, Leon D.; Lohmann, Ulrike
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, Issue 15
Impact of Desert Dust Radiative Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: Relative Importance of Dust Compared to Sea Surface Temperature Variations, Vegetation Changes, and Greenhouse Gas Warming
journal, April 2007
- Yoshioka, Masaru; Mahowald, Natalie M.; Conley, Andrew J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 8
Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability
journal, April 2012
- Booth, Ben B. B.; Dunstone, Nick J.; Halloran, Paul R.
- Nature, Vol. 484, Issue 7393
Do Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Models Improve Projections of Future Precipitation Change?
journal, January 2017
- Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Ban, Nikolina; Roberts, Nigel M.
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 1
A unifying view of climate change in the Sahel linking intra-seasonal, interannual and longer time scales
journal, April 2013
- Giannini, A.; Salack, S.; Lodoun, T.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 2
Mesoscale convective systems
journal, January 2004
- Houze, Robert A.
- Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 42, Issue 4
Vegetation and soil feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon to orbital forcing in the early to middle Holocene
journal, December 1996
- Kutzbach, J.; Bonan, G.; Foley, J.
- Nature, Vol. 384, Issue 6610
Local perceptions and regional climate trends on the Central Plateau of Burkina Faso
journal, January 2008
- West, C. T.; Roncoli, C.; Ouattara, F.
- Land Degradation & Development, Vol. 19, Issue 3
Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa
journal, March 2017
- Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep
- Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 1, Issue 4
Recent trends in the Central and Western Sahel rainfall regime (1990–2007)
journal, August 2009
- Lebel, Thierry; Ali, Abdou
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 375, Issue 1-2
Anthropogenic Mediterranean warming essential driver for present and future Sahel rainfall
journal, June 2016
- Park, Jong-yeon; Bader, Jürgen; Matei, Daniela
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 10
Can climate projection uncertainty be constrained over Africa using metrics of contemporary performance?
journal, November 2015
- Rowell, David P.; Senior, Catherine A.; Vellinga, Michael
- Climatic Change, Vol. 134, Issue 4
The recent Sahel drought is real
journal, August 2004
- Dai, Aiguo; Lamb, Peter J.; Trenberth, Kevin E.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 24, Issue 11
Spatiotemporal variability of the relation between African Easterly Waves and West African Squall Lines in 1998 and 1999
journal, January 2003
- Fink, Andreas H.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 108, Issue D11
The Role of the Sahara Low in Summertime Sahel Rainfall Variability and Change in the CMIP3 Models
journal, November 2009
- Biasutti, M.; Sobel, A. H.; Camargo, Suzana J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 21
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming
journal, November 2006
- Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21
A Quantitative Evaluation of the Multiple Narratives of the Recent Sahelian Regreening
journal, January 2016
- Stith, Mimi; Giannini, Alessandra; Corral, John del
- Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 8, Issue 1
West African monsoon dynamics and precipitation: the competition between global SST warming and CO2 increase in CMIP5 idealized simulations
journal, April 2016
- Gaetani, Marco; Flamant, Cyrille; Bastin, Sophie
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 48, Issue 3-4
Ocean Warming and Late-Twentieth-Century Sahel Drought and Recovery
journal, August 2008
- Hagos, Samson M.; Cook, Kerry H.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15
Mesoscale convective systems and nocturnal rainfall over the West African Sahel: role of the Inter-tropical front
journal, March 2017
- Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 1-2
Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: Part 2. Future climate projections: CMIP5 PROJECTIONS OF EXTREMES INDICES
journal, March 2013
- Sillmann, J.; Kharin, V. V.; Zwiers, F. W.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 6
Mechanisms of Global Warming Impacts on Regional Tropical Precipitation*
journal, July 2004
- Chou, Chia; Neelin, J. David
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 13
Using and Designing GCM–RCM Ensemble Regional Climate Projections
journal, December 2010
- Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Jones, Richard G.; Kjellström, Erik
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 24
Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons
journal, May 2018
- Biasutti, Michela; Voigt, Aiko; Boos, William R.
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 11, Issue 6
Assessing recovery and change in West Africa's rainfall regime from a 161-year record
journal, April 2018
- Nicholson, Sharon E.; Fink, Andreas H.; Funk, Chris
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 38, Issue 10
The ERA-40 re-analysis
journal, October 2005
- Uppala, S. M.; KÅllberg, P. W.; Simmons, A. J.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 131, Issue 612
A global perspective on African climate
journal, March 2008
- Giannini, Alessandra; Biasutti, Michela; Held, Isaac M.
- Climatic Change, Vol. 90, Issue 4
Regional climate model simulation of projected 21st century climate change over an all-Africa domain: Comparison analysis of nested and driving model results
journal, January 2011
- Mariotti, L.; Coppola, E.; Sylla, M. B.
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue D15
Recent trends in the regime of extreme rainfall in the Central Sahel: RECENT TRENDS OF EXTREME RAINFALL IN THE WEST AFRICAN SAHEL
journal, March 2014
- Panthou, G.; Vischel, T.; Lebel, T.
- International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 34, Issue 15
Smallholder farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to climate change in the Nigerian savanna
journal, September 2012
- Tambo, Justice Akpene; Abdoulaye, Tahirou
- Regional Environmental Change, Vol. 13, Issue 2
Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) for development in Africa
journal, November 2017
- Dinku, Tufa; Thomson, Madeleine C.; Cousin, Rémi
- Climate and Development, Vol. 10, Issue 7
Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales
journal, November 2003
- Giannini, A.
- Science, Vol. 302, Issue 5647
A prototype for convective margin shifts: CONVECTIVE MARGIN PROTOTYPE
journal, March 2007
- Lintner, B. R.; Neelin, J. D.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 5
The impact of moist processes on the African easterly jet-African easterly wave system
journal, April 2009
- Cornforth, R. J.; Hoskins, B. J.; Thorncroft, C. D.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 135, Issue 641
Patterns of the seasonal response of tropical rainfall to global warming
journal, April 2013
- Huang, Ping; Xie, Shang-Ping; Hu, Kaiming
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 5
A spatio-temporal analysis of trends in rainfall from long term satellite rainfall products in the Sudano Sahelian zone of Nigeria
journal, October 2018
- Usman, Muhammad; Nichol, Janet E.; Ibrahim, Asma T.
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 260-261
Evaluating Climate Models with an African Lens
journal, February 2018
- James, Rachel; Washington, Richard; Abiodun, Babatunde
- Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 99, Issue 2
Large rainfall changes consistently projected over substantial areas of tropical land
journal, September 2015
- Chadwick, Robin; Good, Peter; Martin, Gill
- Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2
Sahel rainfall and worldwide sea temperatures, 1901–85
journal, April 1986
- Folland, C. K.; Palmer, T. N.; Parker, D. E.
- Nature, Vol. 320, Issue 6063
Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa
journal, January 2017
- Guan, Kaiyu; Sultan, Benjamin; Biasutti, Michela
- Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 232
Structure and Functioning of Dryland Ecosystems in a Changing World
journal, November 2016
- Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David J.; Soliveres, Santiago
- Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, Vol. 47, Issue 1
Tropical temperature trends in Atmospheric General Circulation Model simulations and the impact of uncertainties in observed SSTs
journal, December 2014
- Flannaghan, T. J.; Fueglistaler, S.; Held, I. M.
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 119, Issue 23
Rainfall intensification in tropical semi-arid regions: the Sahelian case
journal, May 2018
- Panthou, G.; Lebel, T.; Vischel, T.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 6
A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability
journal, January 2014
- Ba, Jin; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Latif, Mojib
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 43, Issue 9-10
Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone
journal, September 2014
- Schneider, Tapio; Bischoff, Tobias; Haug, Gerald H.
- Nature, Vol. 513, Issue 7516
Divergent surface and total soil moisture projections under global warming: Future Soil Moisture Changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
journal, January 2017
- Berg, Alexis; Sheffield, Justin; Milly, P. C. D.
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 1
Remote Vegetation Feedbacks and the Mid-Holocene Green Sahara
journal, July 2014
- Swann, Abigail L. S.; Fung, Inez Y.; Liu, Yuwei
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 13
Re-greening Sahel: 30years of remote sensing data and field observations (Mali, Niger)
journal, January 2014
- Dardel, C.; Kergoat, L.; Hiernaux, P.
- Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 140
Robust Sahel drying in response to late 20th century forcings
journal, January 2006
- Biasutti, Michela; Giannini, Alessandra
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 11
SST Forcings and Sahel Rainfall Variability in Simulations of the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries
journal, July 2008
- Biasutti, M.; Held, I. M.; Sobel, A. H.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 14
Sensitivity of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone to Last Glacial Maximum boundary conditions: LGM ATLANTIC ITCZ
journal, December 2003
- Chiang, John C. H.; Biasutti, Michela; Battisti, David S.
- Paleoceanography, Vol. 18, Issue 4
Teleconnections between the tropical Pacific and the Sahel
journal, July 2001
- Rowell, David P.
- Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 127, Issue 575
Integration of Weather System Variability to Multidecadal Regional Climate Change: The West African Sudan–Sahel Zone, 1951–98
journal, October 2006
- Bell, Michael A.; Lamb, Peter J.
- Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 20
A global monthly land surface air temperature analysis for 1948–present
journal, January 2008
- Fan, Yun; van den Dool, Huug
- Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D1
Recent trends in selected extreme precipitation indices in Senegal – A changepoint approach
journal, November 2013
- Sarr, Mamadou Adama; Zoromé, Malicki; Seidou, Ousmane
- Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 505
Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability
journal, April 2015
- Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Smith, W. Kolby
- Nature Geoscience, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Frequency of extreme Sahelian storms tripled since 1982 in satellite observations
journal, April 2017
- Taylor, Christopher M.; Belušić, Danijel; Guichard, Françoise
- Nature, Vol. 544, Issue 7651