Source type estimation using noble gas samples

Eslinger, Paul W.; Lowrey, Justin D.; Miley, Harry S.; Rosenthal, William S.; Schrom, Brian T.

doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106439

Title: Source type estimation using noble gas samples

Abstract

A Bayesian source-term algorithm recently published by Eslinger et al. (2019) extended previous models by including the ability to discriminate between classes of releases such as nuclear explosions, nuclear power plants, or medical isotope production facilities when multiple isotopes are measured. Using 20 release cases from a synthetic data set previously published by Haas et al. (2017), algorithm performance was demonstrated on the transport scale (400–1000 km) associated with the radionuclide samplers in the International Monitoring System. Inclusion of multiple isotopes improves release location and release time estimates over analyses using only a single isotope. The ability to discriminate between classes of releases does not depend on the accuracy of the location or time of release estimates. For some combinations of isotopes, the ability to confidently discriminate between classes of releases requires only a few samples.

Authors:: Eslinger, Paul W.; Lowrey, Justin D.; Miley, Harry S.; Rosenthal, William S.; Schrom, Brian T.

Publication Date:: 2020-12-01

Research Org.:: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation; USDOE Office of Electricity (OE), Advanced Grid Research & Development. Power Systems Engineering Research

OSTI Identifier:: 1669160

Alternate Identifier(s):: OSTI ID: 1674954

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA-152251
Journal ID: ISSN 0265-931X; S0265931X20302241; 106439; PII: S0265931X20302241

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

Resource Type:: Published Article

Journal Name:: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity

Additional Journal Information:: Journal Name: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity Journal Volume: 225 Journal Issue: C; Journal ID: ISSN 0265-931X

Publisher:: Elsevier

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

Subject:: 98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION; atmospheric modeling; source term estimation; atmospheric dilution; isotopic discrimination

Citation Formats


                    Eslinger, Paul W., Lowrey, Justin D., Miley, Harry S., Rosenthal, William S., and Schrom, Brian T.. Source type estimation using noble gas samples.  United Kingdom: N. p., 2020. 
Web.  doi:10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106439.

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                    Eslinger, Paul W., Lowrey, Justin D., Miley, Harry S., Rosenthal, William S., & Schrom, Brian T.. Source type estimation using noble gas samples.  United Kingdom.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106439

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                    Eslinger, Paul W., Lowrey, Justin D., Miley, Harry S., Rosenthal, William S., and Schrom, Brian T.. Tue .  
"Source type estimation using noble gas samples".  United Kingdom.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106439.

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@article{osti_1669160,

  title        = {Source type estimation using noble gas samples},

  author       = {Eslinger, Paul W. and Lowrey, Justin D. and Miley, Harry S. and Rosenthal, William S. and Schrom, Brian T.},

  abstractNote = {A Bayesian source-term algorithm recently published by Eslinger et al. (2019) extended previous models by including the ability to discriminate between classes of releases such as nuclear explosions, nuclear power plants, or medical isotope production facilities when multiple isotopes are measured. Using 20 release cases from a synthetic data set previously published by Haas et al. (2017), algorithm performance was demonstrated on the transport scale (400–1000 km) associated with the radionuclide samplers in the International Monitoring System. Inclusion of multiple isotopes improves release location and release time estimates over analyses using only a single isotope. The ability to discriminate between classes of releases does not depend on the accuracy of the location or time of release estimates. For some combinations of isotopes, the ability to confidently discriminate between classes of releases requires only a few samples.},

  doi          = {10.1016/j.jenvrad.2020.106439},

  journal      = {Journal of Environmental Radioactivity},

  number       = C,

  volume       = 225,

  place        = {United Kingdom},

  year         = {2020},

  month        = {12}

}

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Fig. 1: Release point and radionuclide sampling locations.

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Similar Records

Title: Source type estimation using noble gas samples

Abstract

Citation Formats

Figures / Tables:

Prior specification in Bayesian statistics: Three cautionary tales journal, September 2006

The АРИКС-01 Automatic Facility for Measuring Concentrations of Radioactive Xenon Isotopes in the Atmosphere journal, May 2005

Improved performance comparisons of radioxenon systems for low level releases in nuclear explosion monitoring journal, November 2017

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station journal, June 2016

Initial MCNP6 Release Overview journal, December 2012

SAUNA—a system for automatic sampling, processing, and analysis of radioactive xenon journal, August 2003

Notes on radioxenon measurements for CTBT verification purposes journal, November 2005

Bayesian inference for source determination with applications to a complex urban environment journal, January 2007

Source term estimation using multiple xenon isotopes in atmospheric samples journal, August 2019

A review of source term estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion events using static or mobile sensors journal, July 2017

On Turbulence and Mixing in the Free Atmosphere Inferred from High-Resolution Soundings journal, June 2008

ENDF/B-VII.1 Nuclear Data for Science and Technology: Cross Sections, Covariances, Fission Product Yields and Decay Data journal, December 2011

De praeceptis ferendis: good practice in multi-model ensembles journal, January 2014

Utility of atmospheric transport runs done backwards in time for source term estimation journal, July 2019

High-precision location and yield of North Korea's 2013 nuclear test: NORTH KOREA'S 2013 NUCLEAR TEST journal, June 2013

SPALAX NG: A breakthrough in radioxenon field measurement journal, April 2018

Source term estimation of radioxenon released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactors using measured air concentrations and atmospheric transport modeling journal, January 2014

Evaluation of Bayesian source estimation methods with Prairie Grass observations and Gaussian plume model: A comparison of likelihood functions and distance measures journal, March 2017

Atmospheric xenon radioactive isotope monitoring journal, January 2004

Source estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion journal, October 2007

Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Radioiodine Isotopic Activity Ratios journal, August 2012

Paradigms and commonalities in atmospheric source term estimation methods journal, May 2017

Multi-detection events, probability density functions, and reduced location area journal, July 2015

The complexity of CTBT verification. Taking noble gas monitoring as an example journal, September 2008

A long distance measurement of radioxenon in Yellowknife, Canada, in late October 2006 journal, January 2007

Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Xenon Isotopic Activity Ratios journal, January 2010

Computation and Analysis of the Global Distribution of the Radioxenon Isotope 133Xe based on Emissions from Nuclear Power Plants and Radioisotope Production Facilities and its Relevance for the Verification of the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty journal, January 2010

Measurements of radioxenon in ground level air in South Korea following the claimed nuclear test in North Korea on October 9, 2006 journal, July 2009

The influence of radiopharmaceutical isotope production on the global radioxenon background journal, May 2009

Potential Use of Transport and Dispersion Model Ensembles for Forecasting Applications journal, June 2015

Atmospheric plume progression as a function of time and distance from the release point for radioactive isotopes journal, October 2015

Isotopic Characterization of Radioiodine and Radioxenon in Releases from Underground Nuclear Explosions with Various Degrees of Fractionation journal, September 2012

Radioxenon detections in the CTBT international monitoring system likely related to the announced nuclear test in North Korea on February 12, 2013 journal, February 2014

Review: Untangling the influence of air-mass history in interpreting observed atmospheric composition journal, February 2012

Machine learning for radioxenon event classification for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty journal, January 2010

Prior specification in Bayesian statistics: Three cautionary tales
journal, September 2006

The АРИКС-01 Automatic Facility for Measuring Concentrations of Radioactive Xenon Isotopes in the Atmosphere
journal, May 2005

Improved performance comparisons of radioxenon systems for low level releases in nuclear explosion monitoring
journal, November 2017

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station
journal, June 2016

Initial MCNP6 Release Overview
journal, December 2012

SAUNA—a system for automatic sampling, processing, and analysis of radioactive xenon
journal, August 2003

Notes on radioxenon measurements for CTBT verification purposes
journal, November 2005

Bayesian inference for source determination with applications to a complex urban environment
journal, January 2007

Source term estimation using multiple xenon isotopes in atmospheric samples
journal, August 2019

A review of source term estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion events using static or mobile sensors
journal, July 2017

On Turbulence and Mixing in the Free Atmosphere Inferred from High-Resolution Soundings
journal, June 2008

ENDF/B-VII.1 Nuclear Data for Science and Technology: Cross Sections, Covariances, Fission Product Yields and Decay Data
journal, December 2011

De praeceptis ferendis: good practice in multi-model ensembles
journal, January 2014

Utility of atmospheric transport runs done backwards in time for source term estimation
journal, July 2019

High-precision location and yield of North Korea's 2013 nuclear test: NORTH KOREA'S 2013 NUCLEAR TEST
journal, June 2013

SPALAX NG: A breakthrough in radioxenon field measurement
journal, April 2018

Source term estimation of radioxenon released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactors using measured air concentrations and atmospheric transport modeling
journal, January 2014

Evaluation of Bayesian source estimation methods with Prairie Grass observations and Gaussian plume model: A comparison of likelihood functions and distance measures
journal, March 2017

Atmospheric xenon radioactive isotope monitoring
journal, January 2004

Source estimation methods for atmospheric dispersion
journal, October 2007

Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Radioiodine Isotopic Activity Ratios
journal, August 2012

Paradigms and commonalities in atmospheric source term estimation methods
journal, May 2017

Multi-detection events, probability density functions, and reduced location area
journal, July 2015

The complexity of CTBT verification. Taking noble gas monitoring as an example
journal, September 2008

A long distance measurement of radioxenon in Yellowknife, Canada, in late October 2006
journal, January 2007

Discrimination of Nuclear Explosions against Civilian Sources Based on Atmospheric Xenon Isotopic Activity Ratios
journal, January 2010

Computation and Analysis of the Global Distribution of the Radioxenon Isotope 133Xe based on Emissions from Nuclear Power Plants and Radioisotope Production Facilities and its Relevance for the Verification of the Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
journal, January 2010

Measurements of radioxenon in ground level air in South Korea following the claimed nuclear test in North Korea on October 9, 2006
journal, July 2009

The influence of radiopharmaceutical isotope production on the global radioxenon background
journal, May 2009

Potential Use of Transport and Dispersion Model Ensembles for Forecasting Applications
journal, June 2015

Atmospheric plume progression as a function of time and distance from the release point for radioactive isotopes
journal, October 2015

Isotopic Characterization of Radioiodine and Radioxenon in Releases from Underground Nuclear Explosions with Various Degrees of Fractionation
journal, September 2012

Radioxenon detections in the CTBT international monitoring system likely related to the announced nuclear test in North Korea on February 12, 2013
journal, February 2014

Review: Untangling the influence of air-mass history in interpreting observed atmospheric composition
journal, February 2012

Machine learning for radioxenon event classification for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
journal, January 2010