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Title: Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming

Abstract

Meltwater and ice discharge from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have important impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present–2250) climate simulations performed using a coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with meltwater and ice discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctic discharge raises subsurface ocean temperatures by >1°C at the ice margin relative to simulations ignoring discharge. In contrast, expanded sea ice and 2° to 10°C cooler surface air and surface ocean temperatures in the Southern Ocean delay the increase of projected global mean anthropogenic warming through 2250. In addition, the projected loss of Arctic winter sea ice and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are delayed by several decades. Our results demonstrate a need to accurately account for meltwater input from ice sheets in order to make confident climate predictions.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [1];  [3]
  1. Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003, USA.
  2. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
  3. Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, College of Earth and Mineral Sciences, Pennsylvania State University, PA 16802, USA.
Publication Date:
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1664584
Grant/Contract Number:  
SC0019263
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Science Advances
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Science Advances Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 39; Journal ID: ISSN 2375-2548
Publisher:
American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Sadai, Shaina, Condron, Alan, DeConto, Robert, and Pollard, David. Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169.
Sadai, Shaina, Condron, Alan, DeConto, Robert, & Pollard, David. Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming. United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169
Sadai, Shaina, Condron, Alan, DeConto, Robert, and Pollard, David. Wed . "Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming". United States. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169.
@article{osti_1664584,
title = {Future climate response to Antarctic Ice Sheet melt caused by anthropogenic warming},
author = {Sadai, Shaina and Condron, Alan and DeConto, Robert and Pollard, David},
abstractNote = {Meltwater and ice discharge from a retreating Antarctic Ice Sheet could have important impacts on future global climate. Here, we report on multi-century (present–2250) climate simulations performed using a coupled numerical model integrated under future greenhouse-gas emission scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with meltwater and ice discharge provided by a dynamic-thermodynamic ice sheet model. Accounting for Antarctic discharge raises subsurface ocean temperatures by >1°C at the ice margin relative to simulations ignoring discharge. In contrast, expanded sea ice and 2° to 10°C cooler surface air and surface ocean temperatures in the Southern Ocean delay the increase of projected global mean anthropogenic warming through 2250. In addition, the projected loss of Arctic winter sea ice and weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation are delayed by several decades. Our results demonstrate a need to accurately account for meltwater input from ice sheets in order to make confident climate predictions.},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169},
journal = {Science Advances},
number = 39,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {9}
}

Journal Article:
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https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aaz1169

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