Title: Projected changes to severe thunderstorm environments as a result of twenty-first century warming from RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations

Abstract

Hazardous weather related to the occurrence of severe thunderstorms including tornadoes, high-winds, and hail cause significant damage globally to life and property every year. Yet the impact on these storms from a warming climate remains a difficult task due to their transient nature. Here, we investigate the change in large-scale environments in which severe thunderstorms form during twenty-first century warming (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) in a group of RegCM CORDEX-CORE simulations. Severe potential is measured in terms of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and vertical wind-shear during the severe seasons in three regions which are known to currently be prone to severe hazards: North America, subtropical South America, and eastern India and Bangladesh. In every region, environments supportive for severe thunderstorms are projected to increase during the warm season months in both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios during the twenty-first century. The number of days supportive for severe thunderstorms increases by several days per season over the vast majority of each region by the end of the century. Analyzing the CAPE and shear trends during the twenty-first century, we find seasonally and regionally specific changes driving the increased severe potential. Twenty-first century surface warming is clearly driving a robust increase inmore » CAPE in all regions, however poleward displacement of vertical shear in the future leads to the displacement of severe environments over North America and South America. The results found here relate that severe impacts in the future cannot be generalized globally, and that regionally specific changes in vertical shear may drive future movement of regions prone to severe weather.« less

Authors:

Glazer, Russell H.  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Glazer, Russell H."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-1002-1628"

Torres-Alavez, José Abraham ^[1]; Coppola, Erika ^[1]; Giorgi, Filippo ^[1]; Das, Sushant ^[1]; Ashfaq, Moetasim  ^[2];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Ashfaq, Moetasim"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-4106-3027"

Sines, Taleena ^[1]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste (Italy)
2. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Publication Date:

Thu Sep 10 00:00:00 EDT 2020

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1661249

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Climate Dynamics

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: TBD; Journal Issue: TBD; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575

Publisher:

Springer-Verlag

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Severe Thunderstorms; Climate Change; CORDEX; RegCM