Title: Decarbonizing US passenger vehicle transport under electrification and automation uncertainty has a travel budget

Abstract

Abstract The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the electricity generation carbon intensity to close to zero along with electrification of about 67% or 84% of vehicle travel to meet decarbonization targets of 80% or 90%, respectively. Higher electricity generation carbon intensity and degraded EV fuel economy due to automation would require higher levels of fleet electrification and/or further constrain the total vehicle travel allowable.more » Transportation deep decarbonization not only depends on electricity decarbonization, but also has a total travel budget, representing a maximum total vehicle travel threshold that still enables meeting a midcentury climate target. This makes encouraging ride sharing, reducing total vehicle travel, and increasing fuel economy in both human-driven and future automated vehicles increasingly important to deep decarbonization.« less

Authors:

Alarfaj, Abdullah F. ;

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• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-5736-0662"
• Search orcid.org for ORCID "0000-0001-5736-0662"

Griffin, W. Michael ;

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Griffin, W. Michael"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-1709-4280"
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Samaras, Constantine

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Samaras, Constantine"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-8803-2845"
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Publication Date:

2020-09-07

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1660477

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1660478

Grant/Contract Number:  

7F-30155; Scholarship Obtained by Ph.D. Student Alarfaj; Scholarship Obtained by Ph.D. Stude

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Letters

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Environmental Research Letters Journal Volume: 15 Journal Issue: 9; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:

IOP Publishing

Country of Publication:

United Kingdom

Language:

English