The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Rhoades, Alan M.; Jones, Andrew D.; Srivastava, Abhishekh; Huang, Huanping; O'Brien, Travis A.; Patricola, Christina M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Wehner, Michael; Zhou, Yang

doi:10.1029/2020GL089096

Title: The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Journal Article · 20 August 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089096 · OSTI ID:1658394

^[1];

^[2];

^[1];

^[3];

^[4];

^[5];

^[6];

^[1]

Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA
Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources University of California Davis CA USA
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department Indiana University, Bloomington Bloomington IN USA
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Iowa State University of Science and Technology Ames IA USA
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA, Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources University of California Davis CA USA
Computational Research Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley CA USA

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can be a boon and bane to water resource managers as they have the ability to replenish water reserves, but they can also generate million-to-billion-dollar flood damages. To investigate how anthropogenic climate change may influence AR characteristics in the coastal western United States by end century, we employ a suite of novel tools such as variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM), the TempestExtremes AR detection algorithm, and the Ralph, Rutz, et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0023.1) AR category scale.We show that end-century ARs primarily shift from being “mostly or primarily beneficial” to “mostly or primarily hazardous” with a concomitant sharpening and intensification of winter season precipitation totals. Changes in precipitation totals are due to a significant increase in AR (+260%) rather than non-AR (+7%) precipitation, largely through increases in the most intense category of AR events and a decrease in the interval between landfalling ARs.

View Journal Article

Cite

Export

Save

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; SC0016605

OSTI ID:: 1658394

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1661612; OSTI ID: 1664607

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 17 Vol. 47; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (53)

Global Analysis of Climate Change Projection Effects on Atmospheric Rivers Espinoza, Vicky; Waliser, Duane E.; Guan, Bin Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017GL076968	journal	May 2018
The North American winter ‘dipole’ and extremes activity: a CMIP5 assessment: Amplification of North American dipole Wang, Shih-Yu Simon; Huang, Wan-Ru; Yoon, Jin-Ho Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 16, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.565	journal	February 2015
Sensitivity of Mountain Hydroclimate Simulations in Variable‐Resolution CESM to Microphysics and Horizontal Resolution Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A.; Zarzycki, Colin M. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001326	journal	June 2018
Exploring a Variable-Resolution Approach for Simulating Regional Climate in the Rocky Mountain Region Using the VR-CESM: VR-CESM Simulation in the Rocky Mountains Wu, Chenglai; Liu, Xiaohong; Lin, Zhaohui Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD027008	journal	October 2017
Assessing the climate-scale variability of atmospheric rivers affecting western North America: Atmospheric River Climate-Scale Behavior Gershunov, Alexander; Shulgina, Tamara; Ralph, F. Martin Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL074175	journal	August 2017
Extreme winds and precipitation during landfall of atmospheric rivers Waliser, Duane; Guan, Bin Nature Geoscience, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2894	journal	February 2017
Tropical cyclones in reanalysis data sets: Murakami: Tropical Cyclones in Reanalysis Murakami, Hiroyuki Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059519	journal	March 2014
The Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3) Collins, William D.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Blackmon, Maurice L. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3761.1	journal	June 2006
Extreme snowfall events linked to atmospheric rivers and surface air temperature via satellite measurements: EXTREME SNOWFALL AND ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS Guan, Bin; Molotch, Noah P.; Waliser, Duane E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044696	journal	October 2010
A projection of changes in landfalling atmospheric river frequency and extreme precipitation over western North America from the Large Ensemble CESM simulations: ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS AND CLIMATE CHANGE Hagos, Samson M.; Leung, L. Ruby; Yoon, Jin-Ho Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL067392	journal	February 2016
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS‐D‐12‐00121.1	journal	September 2013
Implications of Detection Methods on Characterizing Atmospheric River Contribution to Seasonal Snowfall Across Sierra Nevada, USA: Atmospheric River Detection and Snowfall Huning, Laurie S.; Margulis, Steven A.; Guan, Bin Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075201	journal	October 2017
Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle Allen, Myles R.; Ingram, William J. Nature, Vol. 419, Issue 6903 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092	journal	September 2002
Meteorological Characteristics and Overland Precipitation Impacts of Atmospheric Rivers Affecting the West Coast of North America Based on Eight Years of SSM/I Satellite Observations Neiman, Paul J.; Ralph, F. Martin; Wick, Gary A. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JHM855.1	journal	February 2008
Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California Dettinger, Michael D.; Ralph, Fred Martin; Das, Tapash Water, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.3390/w3020445	journal	March 2011
An evaluation of the variable‐resolution CESM for modeling California's climate Huang, Xingying; Rhoades, Alan M.; Ullrich, Paul A. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015MS000559	journal	January 2016
The effect of horizontal resolution on simulation quality in the Community Atmospheric Model, CAM5.1 Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Li, Fuyu Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013MS000276	journal	November 2014
The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change O'Gorman, P. A.; Schneider, T. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 106, Issue 35 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0907610106	journal	August 2009
The Rain Is Askew: Two Idealized Models Relating Vertical Velocity and Precipitation Distributions in a Warming World Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Gerber, Edwin P. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐16‐0097.1	journal	August 2016
Dynamics of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers over the North Pacific in 30 Years of MERRA Reanalysis Payne, Ashley E.; Magnusdottir, Gudrun Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐14‐00034.1	journal	September 2014
Assessing sensitivities in algorithmic detection of tropical cyclones in climate data: SENSITIVITIES IN ALGORITHMIC TC TRACKING Zarzycki, Colin M.; Ullrich, Paul A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071606	journal	January 2017
Sensitivity of Seasonal Snowfall Attribution to Atmospheric Rivers and Their Reanalysis-Based Detection Huning, Laurie S.; Guan, Bin; Waliser, Duane E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080783	journal	January 2019
Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change Allan, Richard P.; Barlow, Mathew; Byrne, Michael P. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Vol. 1472, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337	journal	April 2020
Promoting Atmospheric-River and Snowmelt-Fueled Biogeomorphic Processes by Restoring River-Floodplain Connectivity in California’s Central Valley Florsheim, Joan L.; Dettinger, Michael D. Geomorphic Approaches to Integrated Floodplain Management of Lowland Fluvial Systems in North America and Europe https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4939-2380-9_6	book	January 2015
Dynamical and thermodynamical modulations on future changes of landfalling atmospheric rivers over western North America Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065435	journal	September 2015
The 2010/2011 snow season in California's Sierra Nevada: Role of atmospheric rivers and modes of large-scale variability: Atmospheric Rivers and Modes of Large-Scale Variability Guan, Bin; Molotch, Noah P.; Waliser, Duane E. Water Resources Research, Vol. 49, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20537	journal	October 2013
A Review of Global Precipitation Data Sets: Data Sources, Estimation, and Intercomparisons Sun, Qiaohong; Miao, Chiyuan; Duan, Qingyun Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 56, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000574	journal	January 2018
The Community Climate System Model Version 4 Gent, Peter R.; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Donner, Leo J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4083.1	journal	October 2011
Simulating the Pineapple Express in the half degree Community Climate System Model, CCSM4: SIMULATING PINEAPPLE EXPRESS CCSM4 Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069476	journal	July 2016
Precipitation Characteristics in the Community Atmosphere Model and Their Dependence on Model Physics and Resolution Chen, Di; Dai, Aiguo Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001536	journal	July 2019
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project Kalnay, E.; Kanamitsu, M.; Kistler, R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 77, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520‐0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 1996
Hourly Analyses of the Large Storms and Atmospheric Rivers that Provide Most of California’s Precipitation in Only 10 to 100 Hours per Year Lamjiri, Maryam; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2018v16iss4art1	journal	December 2018
An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values Coles, Stuart Springer Series in Statistics https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-3675-0	book	January 2001
NCAR Release of CAM‐SE in CESM2.0: A Reformulation of the Spectral Element Dynamical Core in Dry‐Mass Vertical Coordinates With Comprehensive Treatment of Condensates and Energy Lauritzen, P. H.; Nair, R. D.; Herrington, A. R. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001257	journal	July 2018
Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations: FUTURE CHANGES TO AR LANDFALL LOCATION Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070470	journal	August 2016
Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States Corringham, Thomas W.; Ralph, F. Martin; Gershunov, Alexander Science Advances, Vol. 5, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax4631	journal	December 2019
Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable‐Resolution CESM Rhoades, Alan M.; Jones, Andrew D.; O'Brien, Travis A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 125, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD031977	journal	July 2020
The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): Quantifying Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Climatology Rutz, Jonathan J.; Shields, Christine A.; Lora, Juan M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030936	journal	December 2019
On resolution sensitivity in the Community Atmosphere Model Herrington, Adam R.; Reed, Kevin A. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3873	journal	July 2020
A unified approach to evaluating precipitation frequency estimates with uncertainty quantification: Application to Florida and California watersheds Srivastava, Abhishekh; Grotjahn, Richard; Ullrich, Paul A. Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 578 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124095	journal	November 2019
The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Gelaro, Ronald; McCarty, Will; Suárez, Max J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI‐D‐16‐0758.1	journal	July 2017
Atmospheric rivers: a mini-review Gimeno, Luis; Nieto, Raquel; VÃ¡zquez, Marta Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 2 https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00002	journal	March 2014
The Changing Character of the California Sierra Nevada as a Natural Reservoir Rhoades, Alan M.; Jones, Andrew D.; Ullrich, Paul A. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080308	journal	December 2018
The “Year” of Tropical Convection (May 2008–April 2010): Climate Variability and Weather Highlights Waliser, Duane E.; Moncrieff, Mitchell W.; Burridge, David Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 93, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3095.1	journal	August 2012
Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1 Pendergrass, A. G.; Coleman, D. B.; Deser, C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 17-18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084826	journal	September 2019
Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? Milly, P. C. D.; Betancourt, J.; Falkenmark, M. Science, Vol. 319, Issue 5863 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915	journal	February 2008
An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5: NORTH PACIFIC ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS IN CMIP5 Payne, Ashley E.; Magnusdottir, Gudrun Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023586	journal	November 2015
California from drought to deluge Wang, S. -Y. Simon; Yoon, Jin-Ho; Becker, Emily Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3330	journal	June 2017
Regional Climate Simulations With the Community Earth System Model Gettelman, A.; Callaghan, P.; Larson, V. E. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001227	journal	June 2018
Tropospheric rivers? - A pilot study Newell, Reginald E.; Newell, Nicholas E.; Zhu, Yong Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02916	journal	December 1992
Nonparametric Tests Against Trend Mann, Henry B. Econometrica, Vol. 13, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.2307/1907187	journal	July 1945
Atmospheric Blocking and Other Large‐Scale Precursor Patterns of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the North Pacific: A CESM2 Study Benedict, James J.; Clement, Amy C.; Medeiros, Brian Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030790	journal	November 2019
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J. ‐F.; Bacmeister, J. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019MS001916	journal	February 2020

Similar Records

Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM

Journal Article · 2020 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · OSTI ID:1827977

Rhoades, Alan M.; Jones, Andrew D.; O'Brien, Travis A.; +3 more

Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile

Journal Article · 2021 · International Journal of Climatology · OSTI ID:1823668

Bambach, Nicolas E.; Rhoades, Alan M.; Hatchett, Benjamin J.; +3 more

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

Journal Article · 2016 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1340786

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

Title: The Shifting Scales of Western U.S. Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers Under Climate Change

Citation Formats

References (53)

Similar Records

Related Subjects